Below is a highly targeted MSP analysis that uses our database and MSP algorithms to project data probability scenarios and timing specific to all FED days and in context for today particularly. The interesting thing is that I had expected to see some more positive options and, in fact, the scenarios are MORE negatively skewed. This accentuates the fact that the occurrence of AM session highs, significantly put at risk positive follow through this afternoon. Most negative is the QE data-set in Magenta. Should pre-6:00 AM highs characterize the morning session, probabilities increase for more pronounced weakness that flows into the afternoon and OVERNIGHT sessions.
Note that because this statistical analysis is ONLY specific to FED DAY Data - NO MSP is shown of non-FED days on the chart below.