Posts

Intraday Projection: Deferring to the Larger Picture

Be warned today can be a tough one for the bears during the day session. One needs to prepare for that. Today is a more or less modal situation around the open. If we reverse any strength into the open - probabilities prefer down into 1:00 PM (with possible acceleration at 2:30 PM) or the reverse. Keep in mind that a move today could become persistent.

On the bigger picture front, Daily Market Structure Projection, as posted last week, indicated a turn Tuesday AM from an upwards directional movement to downwards movement. This has occurred. Today probabilities were also for a lower AM session than yesterday AM. This has occurred, and the condition is met. The largest potential downside momentum in terms of points is suggested with a down AM session into Thursday AM. This can be pronounced and test the 2065 to 2044 area if it wishes. Be aware that we are likely entering another central bank bubble blowing contest and may take an intervention attempt and classically like all central bank activity - will be over done. So, move into early September from a potential central bank panic this week may be torture for shorts and, ironically a windfall for a only a few days for longs who will likely have similar frustration in reaction to it. Strong drop after first weeks of September.

August 19th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

August 19th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

Preview of Tomorrow – Projections Update

Today daily market structure projection probabilities favored a down move for the AM session versus yesterday's AM session. This flat out did not occur. Not only that the more probable intraday market structure projection favored market holding up into 9:00 AM (Magenta or Red projections below with circle (1)). We posted to be alert for the potential for a 9:00 AM low as it would switch the shorter term bias for a ramp ingot 11:30 AM to 12:00 PM timing - through the day still favored weakness into the close. That was correct and tracked, however, the shorts are in so much pain yet again for no particular good reason, that they got stuck and clearly were overwhelmed. (Wonder which central bank was doing the squeezing). Interestingly, as marked today was a high probability for a projection for a July Monthly High - this was achieved at the close. Sometimes, all the best data can be overwhelmed by overwhelming market stress - like today against the shorts.

Our approach to analysis let us know early when things were shifting today around the 9:00 to 9:30 AM lows and also that "edge" was compromised. Was easy to get out fo the way and most importantly have a good idea of was likely if the edges did not play out.

Looking ahead into tomorrow, most optimistic case implies 8:30 AM highs with 1:30 AM lows overnight and a down day session. Daily MSP is bonafide down and continues down for another four weeks straight. Again, a 9:00 AM low is a warning sign for bears, as many will likely get trapped, and implications are for another test on the upside - this is NOT the favored probability at this time - but something to be aware of. It is a good probability the things could get rather unpretty during this time

Downward acceleration can occur tomorrow. That potential increases and can produce a strong downside day if 5:00 AM highs remain the high limit of the AM session. Another marker to watch for.

July 14th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

July 14th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

Daily & Weekly Projections as of July 14, 2015

Probabilities, as can be seen below, in addition to the intraday MSP posted earlier, are decidedly downward biased. If this is the case, risk should be turning into an "off" broader phase than market participants have been used to. A sharp reaction in September would be likely with what looks like something more dramatic as far as downside in October (not shown).

As a note, Tuesday is a negative momentum day today - and would generally project to be the most negative momentum close to close day of this week.

July 15th, 2015 Daily & Weekly Market Structure Projections Update

July 15th, 2015 Daily & Weekly Market Structure Projections Update