Posts

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 12-16 of June

The market moved mostly sideways (with a light down bias) last week, before putting in some fireworks on Friday. The action on the last trading day of the week deserves more careful analysis, as the market made a new ATH at the opening of the session, but which was then strongly sold off with a 30+ points decline, before bouncing back in the last hour before the close. This type of action, with a strong and fast reversal after a new high would normally point to at least some kind of short-term top, corresponding to a 5th wave in EWT. Currently the bear (EWT) options are not obvious, and this apparent top might be very short lived and be overtaken soon, but it just might be something more. 2398 is the first level to watch for an overlap on the way down.

Weekly cycles didn’t change much, except the directionality line on YM also started to move up like we were expecting last week.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are still above the resistance levels, but didn’t significantly breakout just yet. As the market moved quite near them on the lows from Friday, this can qualify as a back-test, so what the market does next week will be important for the intermediate term also. If it holds the lows and bounces, then the breakout over resistances might become another up impulse. If the market breaks below the resistance levels, then it means the initial breakout was just an overshoot and more bearish resolutions are possible.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 5-9 of June

In the previous newsletter we were warning that the action had nothing bearish in it and the EWT more bullish scenarios were becoming favorite. The market followed through last week and pushed even higher.

Weekly cycles saw a slight change in that directionality on ES finally moved off its lowest level. YM didn’t do that just yet, but will likely follow unless the market turns soon.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles triggered new resistances, but the market managed to break above them. The breakout is not significant just yet and may prove to be just a spike. But the further the market moves, the more likely the breakout becomes. The resistance levels are still important to watch, in case the market moves lower since if the back-test holds, that would be dangerous for bears.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – May 4, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 8:30AMEST, 10:30AMEST, 2:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2387, 10DMA 2381,  20DMA 2364, 50DMA 2364, 100DMA 2325, 200DMA 2245

These are key Fib Levels:  2402, 2196, 2379

These are key primary and intermediate: 2401(intermediate minor), 2379(intermediate minor), 2373 (intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor), 2322(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Thursday, May 4, 2017

Present price action is favoring the magenta MSP which would indicate weakness from the 8:30AMEST timing through the opening bell and then a positive bias the remainder of the day.  Data is abundant with International Trade, Jobless Claims, Productivity and Costs, and the Gallup Good Jobs Rate at 8:30AMEST, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index at 9:45AMEST, Factory Orders at 10:00AMEST, and lastly the EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30AMEST.

MSP

As surmised by yesterday's update, the break of near term rising support produced a break down towards the lower intermediate minor level of 2373, but was arrested by the 10DMA.  Current price is set to open near the declining resistance level just overhead which will serve as a warning for sellers if trade is sustained above that and/or successfully backtested on a break above.  The long standing 2379 fib level was nearly tested at yesterday's lows which serves two roles going forward.  Either the failure to test the level translates to an extremely strong move higher as the correction was truncated, or the correction still requires more time and price depreciation.  Good luck today and keep an eye on premarket price action with timing and the data dump at 8:30AMEST.

Primary and Intermediate Levels

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – April 10, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 11:00AMEST, 1:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2355, 10DMA 2358,  20DMA 2359, 50DMA 2348, 100DMA 2299, 200DMA 2226

These are key Fib Levels:  2392, 2341

These are key primary and intermediate: 2401(intermediate minor), 2386(intermediate minor), 2354 (intermediate minor), 2275(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, April 10, 2017

With white and cyan as the most probable MSP's through the overnight session, it will be important to see what 11:00AMEST timing has to discern between the two which equates to patience for the first portion of the session.  With only the Labor Market Conditions Index at 10:00AMEST, and TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index at 12:30PMEST, data shouldn't pose much of a influence on price action today.

MSP

The intermediate level at 2354 continues to act as a magnet for price as we whipsaw the shorter term DMAs over and over again.  As a reminder, we still have yet to put in an cyan intermediate pivot marker at the most recent lows so sellers still have the overall bias in their favor until that takes place.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – January 11, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 11:00AMEST, 1:15PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2270, 10DMA 2261,  20DMA 2262,  50DMA 2211, 100DMA 2183, 200DMA 2144

These are key Fib Levels:  2162, 2152, 2175

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2278(intermediate minor), 2254(intermediate minor), 2214(intermediate minor), 2189(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, January 11,  2016

Price action in the overnight has been very choppy, so a preferred MSP has been very difficult to discern.  Timing at 11:00AMEST will be key in the vetting process to see what type of bias will remain for the trading session.  Another light day on the data front with Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations at 10:00AMEST, and EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30AMEST.

MSP

The technical side of the house still has us bouncing between the stacked moving averages, 5DEMA, 10DMA, 20DMA.  Basic assertion is a consolidation area here for buyers until one of the previous pivots are broken on the rise up from the previous intermediate minor level at 2234, that pivot being at 2260.  Good luck today and profitable trading!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

 

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the Week 9-13 January

The holiday shortened first week of 2017 had a strong bullish bias. The market advanced in almost all trading sessions and finished by making new all time highs on Friday.
The market’s move, although seemingly impressive, did little to change the big picture. Partly because YM had under performed relatively to ES. And on the weekly cycle, YM is now overlapping its resistance level, while ES managed to spike above once again. The normal expectation for downside has not changed, but will do so in case the move above the resistance levels is sustained.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are in up impulses and held the initial decline (which stopped exactly at the mcm-MA on ES). It is interesting that the directionality is still stuck at the lowest level. That is a sign that the up move is not sustained just yet, so if it starts to move up, that would mean the bounce might have more to go.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update –November 30, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 1:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2207, 10DMA 2200,  20DMA 2173,  50DMA 2156, 100DMA 2162, 200DMA 2113

These are key Fib Levels:  2213.5

These are key primary and intermediate 2194(intermediate minor), 2177 (intermediate minor), 2157 (intermediate minor), 2144 (intermediate minor),

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, November 30, 2016

With both magenta and red MSP's the most probable based off present price action look for a moderately positive bias coupled with a healthy dose of chop for today.  The last hour will be the deciding factor as to which ultimately plays out where red falls off rather dramatically.  We also have a rather full economic data set today with the MBA Mortgage Index at 7:00AMEST, ADP Employment Change at 8:15AMEST, Personal Income, Personal Spending, Core PCE Price Index at 8:30AMEST, Chicago PMI at 9:45AMEST, Pending Home Sales at 10:00AMEST, Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30AMEST, and the Fed Beige Book at 2:00PMEST.  Also tucked in amongst all this is the announcement from the OPEC and others on a production agreement around the 11:00AMEST hour.

2016-11-30_3-49-06_intradayMSP

MSP

The technical picture hasn't changed that much since yesterday.  Momentum is still in the buyers favor while we maintain the 5DEMA, but the price action is becoming sloppy around it which hints that the upward trend is weakening.  2194 intermediate minor level remains the first area of interest on any decline with the 10DEMA and rising support also residing in that general vicinity as we push deeper into our timing turn zone.  Good luck today.

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Technical Lab Update For the Week Of November 20

Good evening everyone,

Another week in the books for 2016 albeit a quiet one relative to election week.  The preferred ending diagonal count that we've been tracking has came into contact with the last remaining declining resistance in this past weeks price action and continued to press on it into Friday's close.  The week of Thanksgiving is historically a positive week with 65% odds of a higher close than open since 1950.  This fits with the long term MSP expectations as well as DJIA seasonality.

SPX

SPX

This week also produced a rather rare triple inside daily pattern on the DJIA.  These patterns lend themselves to a rather dramatic move upon completion, and while seasonality and MSP favor a positive bias, expectations are for this pattern to complete itself with an upward thrust.

dji

DJIA

Move evidence of this is apparent in the Election Year chart for seasonality where there is one last solid push higher into the last week of the month, and there is also one for the overall average chart but it is pushed forward in time by about a week and a half.  While expectations are for higher prices, we are getting near enough the turn zone to warrant some caution and to begin to look for signs of a turn.  Good luck this week and happy Thanksgiving.

DJIA Seasonality

DJIA Seasonality

mcm Market Update For Week 38

The FED week was a good omen for the bulls and the market finally managed a small break-out above the choppy range in which it was stuck for a few weeks already. We had several short term cycles break into up impulses on mcm, which provided early clues about this ramp.

Coming back to the big picture, the weekly cycles show a dangerous development for bears. The back-test of the 2105 break-out level appears to have held. The market bounced from there and if it will continue to go higher that will be a situation in which shorts would have to be patient for quite a while. YM continues to underperform, however it bounced when it met the mcm-MA and now managed to get above the broken resistance also. The bears do have one more chance and that would be to reverse this bounce rather directly. The fact that the directionality tool is still heading down is also a sign that the back-test is not decided just yet.

Weekly Cycles

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are the reason why we are not fully in the bullish side just yet. They unwinded the big up impulses started back in March. YM completed that unwind (with a 3rd END resistance), while ES only had a 2nd END and could still (theoretically) get a 3rd END. In the mean time, they broke below support and actually started down impulses, although now the price came back above that support. So bears have 2 options here. One would be a direct reversal, which would mean the back-test of the previously broken support held and the down impulses are confirmed. That would be very bearish. The 2nd option is for the market to go higher and reverse after ES triggers the 3rd END resistance. As we can see on YM, that 3rd END doesn’t necessarily require a lot of upside to trigger. Once that happens, reaction to that resistance will be critical. If the bullish scenario on the weekly is to be confirmed the market could break into a nested impulse on the daily. But the normal expectation is for downside from there. As always, the shorter term cycles will provide early clues into which scenario will play out.

Daily Cycles

Daily Cycles

The Elliott Wave projection of the NYSE is also pointing to a crossroads with regards to market direction.  With minimum expectations of the structure being met, waves one and four overlapping, the market is free to do as it sees fit from here.  The duration of the fourth wave seems to be lacking taking into consideration that from a seasonal perspective, most bottoms aren't put in place till sometime on or after the second week of October.  While the projected paths are very insightful as far as targets and bias is concerned, the fact that markets don't go in a straight line as the projections do makes for a challenge.  Keeping that in mind, although we've bounced in what appears to be the final leg up to new all time highs, there is a very good potential this is just a counter trend move that has the potential to bottom at 'or 2' into the month of October.  Best to your trading this week.

NYSE Composite

NYSE Composite

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update –September 14, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  12:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2145, 10DMA 2153, 20DMA 2170,  50DMA 2168, 100DMA 2123

These are key Fib Levels:  2157, 2146, 2113, 2082

These are key primary and intermediate levels:   2155 (intermediate minor), 2131(intermediate minor), 2126(primary major)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, September 14,  2016:

A quiet overnight session is currently leading into weakness starting from the premarket session with the white, red, and magenta MSP's all in the realm of reason, so be on the alert at mid day.  HAL and RVS still remain in their long placemarker positions which gives a marginally upward bias, but these can be closed at anytime so it is best not to overweight them.  It is going to be another exceptionally quiet day on the economic data front with only EIA Petroleum Status Report coming out at 10:30AMEST.  Be mindful of the 60 and 135min cycle charts as they have a nice range defined with current Bearish Retraces and Ends in place.  Good luck today.

MSP

MSP

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels