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http://mcm-ct.com/blog/sp500-expert-lounge-update-august-10-2018/

Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2852, 10DMA 2833,  20DMA 2824, 50DMA 2782, 100DMA 2727, 200DMA 2707

These are key Fib Levels:  2929, 2829, 2821

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, August 10, 2018

Happy Friday everyone!  We have three items for the last trading session of the week that will give traders and investors something to ponder with regards to the economic health of the country.  We have the Consumer Price Index at 8:30AMEST, Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00PMEST, and the Treasury Budget at 2:00PMEST.  The shallow declining resistance held yet again yesterday and we closed the session on a very weak note as buyers begin to lock in gains and sellers see an opportunity arising for a reversal trade after hitting broadening resistance.  Given present price levels of the overnight session we are set to start the day off roughly 12 points lower then the close yesterday.  A gap down open will be important if it is below the intermediate minor level at 2848 because that would then serve as solid resistance on any subsequent near term bounce.  Primary targets remain the same for both sides of the tape as sellers look to do some technical damage on a long standing rising support level that currently is located in the 2830 area along with some close proximity moving averages.  Buyers will first need to reclaim the 2848 intermediate minor level and 5DEMA in an attempt to challenge the shallow declining resistance level that is cutting through the 2860 mark if they have any hopes of overtaking the all time highs and primary minor level at 2872.  Good luck today and have a great weekend!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – May 25, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2724, 10DMA 2723,  20DMA 2692, 50DMA 2674, 100DMA 2710, 200DMA 2631

These are key Fib Levels:   2905, 2774, 2759, 2637, 2587

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, May 25, 2018

Happy Friday everyone!  We have a few items of interest today, the most important of the group is Durable Goods Orders at 8:30AMEST followed by Consumer Sentiment at 10:00AMEST and rounding out the data docket in the afternoon with the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00PMEST.  Price played a game of ping pong yesterday between primary and intermediate minor levels around 2730 and the 100DMA before ultimately closing out the day sitting atop the 5DEMA and 10DMA.  Overnight price action currently has us around the primary minor level at 2732 and the 8:30AMEST Durable Goods Order has the potential to set the stage for buyers today should it be a positive number and get us over the 2732 hump and into the massive levels void that runs all the way up to near 2770 and the next intermediate minor level.  Sellers still have what seems like an impenetrable rising target in the 100DMA if they are to get anything going for themselves in and around the 2710 level.  Everything between these two areas is just more of a consolidation pattern.  Good luck today and have a great weekend and an extended one for everyone in the U.S. with Monday being a holiday!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

 

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – May 11, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2692, 10DMA 2666,  20DMA 2669, 50DMA 2675, 100DMA 2706, 200DMA 2624

These are key Fib Levels:   2905, 2774, 2759, 2637, 2587

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(primary minor), 2817(intermediate minor), 2779(primary minor), 2765(intermediate minor), 2651(primary minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, May 11,  2018

We have a couple items of interest for the last trading day of the week with Consumer Sentiment at 10:00AMEST, and the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00PMEST.  Yesterday's open had us gap declining resistance from the all time high and open up on the 100DMA before extending gains further into the session.  Buyers have now cleared all daily moving average obstacles and only have an intermediate minor level to clear at 2730 before entering an extremely large void of levels all the way up to the 2780 region.  Symmetry for this leg of the move relative to the leg up from the primary pivot low (yellow -8.9) resides at 2759.  This would be the minimum expected target for the present move from a harmonic standpoint.  Sellers have a number of near term areas to target should they be able to gain some footing with the 100DMA at 2708 and rising support coming up through the lower 2700 to 2710 region.  After that is broadening support and the intermediate minor level at 2697.  Any basing in these areas should be considered the buyers attempt to regain control and make a run for the 2759 harmonic price target.  Good luck today and have a great weekend!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for 1st week of March

The market made a lower high last week, very close to the 76,4% retrace of the entire decline off the ATH and then dropped with conviction. More than 140 points from the high registered on Tuesday, to the lows on Friday. From there, it managed to bounce but the market looks to be in a dangerous set-up for longs. As the 1st wave down from the ATH was more than 300 points, if this lower high holds, we might get another wave down of at least equal (but usually greater) strength.
No big changes in the weekly cycles. The move lower off the ATH did turn directionality down and this has continued to move down, despite the convincing bounce off the lows. That is usually a bearish sign and likely means the bounce will eventually be sold.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles had triggered supports in the form of bullish retraces (BR) at the lows and now ES also triggered a corresponding END resistance at the lower high. This means that level is very significant and likely is strong resistance.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the week of 19-25 February

The market managed to bounce back from the lows registered on the previous Friday and last week saw only green daily candles painting. It reached now a bit higher than the 61,8% retrace of the entire decline from ATH, which is quite an achievement considering how vicious the drop was.

The weekly cycles have shown a warning for the bears, by having LRE (lower risk entries) for longs at the lows from 2 weeks ago. ES even triggered a 2nd consecutive LRE at the higher low from last week. Big picture is still unchanged on this time frame, with the up impulses still established, but this correction was big enough that it could trigger a bullish retrace (BR) support at the lows.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles show a more zoomed-in picture of the decline and subsequent bounce. They were also showing LREs for longs, albeit a bit early. More importantly they triggered bullish retraces (BR) supports on both ES and YM. The market bounced strongly from there and basically a corresponding END could trigger any time, which doesn't mean it cannot trigger much higher from here.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – February 9, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2673, 10DMA 2756,  20DMA 2782, 50DMA 2719, 100DMA 2638, 200DMA 2538

These are key Fib Levels:   2448

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(intermediate minor) 2811 (intermediate minor) 2595(intermediate minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, February 9,  2018

Data to close out the week is light with only Wholesale Trade at 10:00AMEST, and the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00PMEST.  The technical picture saw more weakness present itself yesterday as sellers stepped back into the fray.  Fibonacci points to a symmetry zone all the way down at 2448 which also coincides with a 23.6% retrace of the rally from the 2011 lows.  There is a good deal of potential for choppiness in this general area as a result of the intermediate minor levels stacked together, of which we tested the second layer of yesterday.  Overhead we now have established two declining resistance levels and a potential for a wedging pattern although that doesn't seem very probable given the symmetry target, but it is something to be mindful of in the event the structure is skewed upward as a result of buying pressures.  Good luck today and have an outstanding weekend everyone!

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for 2nd week of February

Finally the market stopped the relentless up move and had a rather panicky turn. A drop of more than 100 SPX points in one week is definitely something that draws attention, but it was not only that. The market character seems to have changed also, as the market sliced through supports like they were not even there. This is definitely the first sign of the bear in quite a long time.
The weekly cycles, show just how overextended the market was until last week. The nested up impulse traveled more than 600 points and more than 1 year without any correction big enough to qualify for a bullish retrace (BR). That is rather unusual both in terms of both price and time.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles show the same story as the weekly, although the last up impulses started only in October 2017. But they also traveled a whooping 400 points without any retrace. This correction looks as the first serious one and we already have a lower risk entry (LRE) for longs at Friday's lows, which doesn't mean it's over, but the next low might be greeted with a new one, which would have to be taken seriously.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 1st week of December

The market pushed ever upward last week making a new ATH at 2657. Then it experienced an interesting “flash crash” event on Friday, apparently on some “fake news”, which saw a 45 point drop in less than 1h. After that, it recovered strongly retracing more than 80% of the drop by the close, which shows that buyers are still willing to buy dips.
No change in the weekly cycles, as the up impulses on both indexes are pushing ever higher.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles show nicely Friday’s “oops” moment. On ES the drop brought the index very close to the mcm-MA, which provided support yet again. The decline on Thursday brought us closer to a test of the mcm-MA on ES and a direct test on YM. These held as market quickly recovered.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 13-17th of November

The market made new ATHs last week, which is becoming something rather ordinary. However, it ended lower on a weekly basis, after retreating 30 points from the ATH to Thursday’s low. It seems Thursdays are the most bearish inclined days in November, 2 weeks ago the Thursday saw a similar move. Both those moves were however recovered quickly, most of it even on a daily basis. No apparent change on our EWT scenario which is a terminal pattern currently unwinding 4-5 waves. Market is moving slowly higher with some “hiccups” along the way, but whether we turn after a spike higher or market just falls on its own weight after marginal new highs is hard to say.
No change in the weekly cycles. Directionality is heading up again and getting close to the maximum value.

Weekly Cycles

Same story on the daily cycles. The decline on Thursday brought us closer to a test of the mcm-MA on ES and a direct test on YM. These held as market quickly recovered.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for first Week of November

The market moved mostly sideways last week, with a slight upward tilt. But even so, it managed to make a new ATH on Wednesday and finished the week very close to that. This is consistent with out assumption that these are sequences of 4-5 waves, from an EWT perspective, which would mean that it is a terminal pattern. No sign of a top just yet, but any impulsive decline should be viewed as a possible start of a bigger correction, so we reiterate our recommendation that bulls should avoid becoming complacent here.
No change in the weekly cycles. Up impulses continue to extend with no unwind in sight.

Weekly Cycles

Same story on the daily cycles. Up impulses are ongoing and no unwinds just yet, however we do have directionality coming close to the minimum level. That is not bullish, unless the price action manages to push this back up.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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