Posts

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 19-23 of June

The market pulled the old “W” pattern last week, making a low on Monday, then bouncing back up to test the ATH (which it missed by 3 points), then moving in lower again to (barely) take out Monday’s low before bouncing once more. From an EWT standpoint this sideways action might be a wave 4, which means the bull count is still alive and well and still the favorite. That continues to be the case until the market will overlap the 2398-2402 area (depending on which high you consider the top of nested wave 1).

Same as for quite a while now, the weekly cycles do not show any significant change. However it is interesting to note some aspects. Namely, the mcm-MA on these cycles provided support several times when it was tested from above. Also, both YM and ES are in up impulses which are now firmly established so would normally need a regular unwind, with a bullish support (BR) and corresponding END resistance to dissipate the up energy.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are also in nested up impulses and recently broke yet again above resistance, breakout which would soon turn into another nested up impulse, unless the market reverses strongly. In fact YM will confirm in the next few days, as the mcm-MA is now crossing over resistance.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 12-16 of June

The market moved mostly sideways (with a light down bias) last week, before putting in some fireworks on Friday. The action on the last trading day of the week deserves more careful analysis, as the market made a new ATH at the opening of the session, but which was then strongly sold off with a 30+ points decline, before bouncing back in the last hour before the close. This type of action, with a strong and fast reversal after a new high would normally point to at least some kind of short-term top, corresponding to a 5th wave in EWT. Currently the bear (EWT) options are not obvious, and this apparent top might be very short lived and be overtaken soon, but it just might be something more. 2398 is the first level to watch for an overlap on the way down.

Weekly cycles didn’t change much, except the directionality line on YM also started to move up like we were expecting last week.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are still above the resistance levels, but didn’t significantly breakout just yet. As the market moved quite near them on the lows from Friday, this can qualify as a back-test, so what the market does next week will be important for the intermediate term also. If it holds the lows and bounces, then the breakout over resistances might become another up impulse. If the market breaks below the resistance levels, then it means the initial breakout was just an overshoot and more bearish resolutions are possible.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 5-9 of June

In the previous newsletter we were warning that the action had nothing bearish in it and the EWT more bullish scenarios were becoming favorite. The market followed through last week and pushed even higher.

Weekly cycles saw a slight change in that directionality on ES finally moved off its lowest level. YM didn’t do that just yet, but will likely follow unless the market turns soon.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles triggered new resistances, but the market managed to break above them. The breakout is not significant just yet and may prove to be just a spike. But the further the market moves, the more likely the breakout becomes. The resistance levels are still important to watch, in case the market moves lower since if the back-test holds, that would be dangerous for bears.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 29 May -2 June

Last week saw the market push towards new highs. There was nothing bearish about the action, quite the opposite in fact, the market being able to push past resistances and into new ATHs. From an EWT stand-point the picture is becoming increasingly complicated. The more complex correction is still possible, albeit not favourite anymore. For this to happen the market would need to turn quite soon and avoid pushing significantly higher from here. The most obvious bullish scenario is for a nested wave up from the 2320 low, which would need the market to head higher in a steep manner (continuing the action of last week)

Weekly cycles are unchanged, with directionality still at the lowest level despite the bounce.  Once that moves, it would be a confirmation that the up move is really bullish.

Weekly Cycles

On the daily cycles we saw a support level trigger also on ES (following YM). The up impulses are continuing to unwind and the next resistance levels will be very important to watch for reaction, especially since it will be a 3rd END on ES, marking the completion of the impulse.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 22-26 of May

Last week saw the return of volatility to the market. After 2 days of consecutive new ATHs on Mon-Tue, the market saw a big down gap on Wed, which finished more than 40 points lower than the previous close. Next day we got a lower low, followed by a rebound which continued on Friday. Despite the more exciting action, we are still in the 2320-2400 chop zone, so the market is keeping its options open. From an EWT stand-point the more complex correction (started at the ATH from March 1st) scenario is gaining more weight because of the side-ways action. This would mean a flat is in the works, with wave A at the 2320 low and B either done at the recent ATH or needing a new minor high to finish. Then wave C down should follow with new lows (below 2320). Because of the overlap of 2370, the bullish scenario now became very bullish, because the only option still on the table is for a nested wave up (two series of 1-2 waves). This scenario is lower odds, though, at least at the moment because of the side-ways action.

Weekly cycles are unchanged, but directionality made it to the lowest level. That is not a bullish sign.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles held the test of resistances and moved lower and triggered some bullish signals at the lows. ES had 2 consecutive LRE (lower risk entries) for longs, while YM triggered a new support level. Those pointed up, but unless ES also triggers a new support level, it is still expected for the previous resistance to hold.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 8-12 of May

The market moved sideways to lower in the first 4 trading days last week, with Friday bringing a stronger effort from the bull side with a push which came very narrowly close to the ATH. Our EWT scenario is playing out quite well and this looks (so far) like the 3 wave move off the important low at 2320ish. Currently 2 main scenarios are on the table: this is part of a more complex correction started at the ATH (a B wave of a flat, as mentioned in the previous newsletter), OR the correction ended at the 2320ish low and this is part of an impulsive move up. Once the current minor wave ends the next correction will give us a clue, 2370 would be the level to watch as the overlap (or not) would add weight to one or the other scenario.
No change for the weekly cycles. Directionality is still moving lower and it almost made it to the lowest level.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are now directly testing the resistance levels (the 2nd END on ES and the 1st END on YM). As mentioned in the previous newsletter, a minor new high is not excluded, however the normal expectation would be for the resistance levels to hold, which would fit better with the flat EWT scenario mentioned.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – May 3, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: N/A

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2386, 10DMA 2378,  20DMA 2362, 50DMA 2364, 100DMA 2323, 200DMA 2244

These are key Fib Levels:  2402, 2196, 2379

These are key primary and intermediate: 2401(intermediate minor), 2379(intermediate minor), 2373 (intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor), 2322(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, May 3, 2017

We have a reasonable amount of economic data to hit the tape today with the ADP Employment Report at 8:15AMEST, Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index at 8:30AMEST, PMI Services Index at 9:45AMEST, ISM Non Manufacturing Index at 10:00AMEST, EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30AMEST, and lastly the all important FOMC Meeting Announcement at 2:00PMEST.  The technical picture saw us test and bounce off of both the broadening and rising support near the close of business yesterday and close above the 5DEMA.  A break of rising support will likely see us go down and visit the 10DMA and the 2373 intermediate minor level before finding more significant support.  Until the rising trendline is broken and trade sustains below though, buyers have control.  Good luck today and be careful around 2:00PMEST if you have any open positions.

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the 1st Week of May

The market continued to move higher last week and did so more convincingly than the previous week. It opened on Monday with a gap up of more than 20 points and Tuesday saw another opening gap up, this time smaller (around 7 points). The high of the week came very close to the ATH, before the market retreated a bit in the last 2 trading sessions. Our preferred EWT scenario (bullish) played out, despite the initial chop which had us question the validity of this (presumed) 3rd wave. Now it looks like this wave up might need another high before finishing and the coming correction from there will be telling to see if this is indeed a bullish impulse up or not. As it looks right now and in accordance with our thoughts from the previous newsletter this doesn’t look like a “real” 3rd wave up, which has us thinking it might be part of a more complex correction which started at the ATH (potentially a B wave of a flat). But we will burn that bridge once we come to it.
Weekly cycles did not trigger any new signals. Directionality is still moving lower which is a sign that it is not time to sound the all clear for the bulls just yet.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles continue to unwind the up impulses. ES triggered a 2nd END resistance, while YM also triggered an END resistance level. This is a sign that the upward energy of these impulses is dissipating. Considering that this is already a nested up impulse (an impulse following another impulse), it is unlikely that the market will have enough strength to break above these resistances and create another nested impulse. That being said, a marginal new high is not excluded, but we do not expect the resistance levels to be broken above significantly.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the Week 24 – 28 Apr

The market moved higher during the past week, ending around 20 points higher on a weekly basis. The low at 2320 held (despite being tested in the overnight on Monday), so our EWT preferred scenario (bullish) played out. However the move from lows was very choppy and does not resemble a 3rd wave, which our bullish scenario would point to. So it is time to re-assess since it seems this wave sequence is turning into something more complex. If someone played a long off the lows here is time to book some profits, and wait to “see more cards”, as they say in poker. The market will give us some more clues into its intentions by how the next few sessions will play out.
Not surprisingly there is no significant change on the weekly cycles. The mcm-MA test did provide support again, as pointed to last week, while directionality is continues to move lower.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles had again a very nice signal. ES triggered a 2nd bullish retrace (BR) support after the END resistance higher. This support was respected, as the market was testing the BR support also on YM, and the market bounced. The next resistance will be a 2nd END on ES and will likely be strong if YM also triggers.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

MCM Newsletter for Week 17-21 Apr

After moving sideways 2 weeks ago, the holiday shortened week brought a clearer direction, which was down. The market was weak in all 4 trading days and finished at the lows on Thursday. The short term EWT scenario we kept referencing is very close to a resolution now. The low close to 2320 is all important and the separation line between the bullish and the (very) bearish scenario. It did not get taken out yet, so the bullish scenario is still preferred. However the market came quite close and is still too close for comfort for the bulls. Which is why Monday is likely to bring a resolution, one way or the other. Both scenarios point to a strong next move, so the action from here will likely affect the intermediate term trend.
No big change on the weekly cycles. ES is now testing the mcm-MA again and will be interesting to see if this will provide support again. Directionality continues to move lower.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles saw an interesting development last week. ES triggered already an END resistance, which had shifted the expectation down once it confirmed. YM did not trigger one yet, so the support on daily YM is still valid. Directionality is still stuck at the minimum level, and is getting a bit long in the tooth for a bounce.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.