mcm “MSP, Market Cycles, eTickTools & Trade Modality/Allocation” Webinar Scheduling/Poll & Invitation

Applied Cycle, eMotional Impulses, MSP

Applied Cycle, eMotional Impulses, MSP

We have wanted to do a follow-up webinar to our previous discussion for quite some time but scheduling always seems to be an issue so we are once more putting the Webinar scheduling and attendance to a vote. The amount of interest and the state of the markets leads us feel that further discussion and Q&A for the benefit traders.

The webinar/online meeting will be free and will be an interactive Q&A format when it is scheduled. We are seeking to get a near-term slot assigned that is convenient to as many people including ourselves as possible. We feel that there is a benefit on getting this scheduled as soon as possible.

Below is a vote. Please choose the times that work best for you and supply your email address and we will update you on the final scheduling of the webinar. Note all the times are quoted in Eastern Standard Time (New York) Also, note you can become  a registered user for our site and vote which will make it easier to sign up for the event once it is scheduled.  Registration is free.


This poll is closed!
Poll activity:
Start date 29-01-2016 02:04:31
End date 02-02-2016 02:04:07

Poll Results:

Scheduling options for the "mcm Cycles Impulses, eTickTools, MSP and Trade Allocation", when would be your preferred timing?


 

Astoundingly Large & Precipitous Losses Hide in the Market Brew – Implying Large Deflationary Forces at Work

In a world of controversial and delusional claims by governments, central banks and economists of recovery and return to sound economic conditions out of the 2009 market and economic crash, this simply is not the case. It can be seen clearly in these indexes, that while nominal prices have been levitated, the actual distribution of return and therefore liquid value, has not. While the S&P 500 is only dropped a small amount since 2014, in reality large losses are being sustained by participants that are similar in size and stress as last seen in 2009.

Currently, we are experiencing a double bottom balance in the MCM Smart Money index, and also the MCM market close index. When this bounce concludes for these indexes, it is likely that the markets will resume a downward trend of these indexes will resume and break the 2009 lows. From all appearances, it would seem that very large deflationary forces, meaning contraction of credit and money is occurring at the very same time as massive printing and leveraging has been attempted worldwide. Clearly, those levitation efforts have failed.

It is important to respect what these indexes are suggesting both on a long-term basis and on a short-term basis. Short-term, it would not be surprising to see volatility in the markets but also a larger effort to metabolize the drop into the August lows. This would imply that after a near-term drop in headline prices for the major indexes, a bounce could continue into November. Via market structure projection, early November is looking like prime-time for the markets and a likely inflection point that will lead to a pronounced decline that is likely larger than the initial foray of August.

mcm Smart Money Index and mcm Indexes

mcm Smart Money Index and mcm Indexes

As Expected, Bear Impulses Continue Last Week’s Retest Before Next Drop

As, posted last week in this post: Bear Impulses Retesting Before Next Drop, and this chart, significant retesting of a the currently in-progress downward BEAR IMPULSES should be expected. We indicated that testing in the 1990 area would be normal/ideal - and preferred between 1950 and 1990. Though it is totally normal for impulses to retest the breakdown point directly, in this case, that is NOT the highest probability outcome and would expect a retest that looks similar to the retest of the upward impulse shown on the chart below, but as stated in last week's post the option of a direct retest of the breakdown must be respected.

We are presently looking for BEARISH RETRACEMENT triggers (Magenta BR Labels) on the Daily and Weekly charts which will likely lead to pronounced weakness and subsequently the dissipation phase of the current Daily and Weekly Impulses.

We had a tremendous week last week in the lounge, with prescient and powerful signals triggering for upside into the NFP report and also, Market Structure Projection, eTickTools and Accumulation Indexes nailing the low on Friday morning in the 9:30 to 10 AM area and at that time suggesting a close near the high of the day as the most probable outcome.

Given the overall setup, IT MUST BE STATED AGAIN for the record, that impulses usually retest and they require more attention that we had received up till Friday last week. Friday was a solid step in the right direction. Interestingly, HAL and RVS systems began triggering initial SHORT risk entries which ideally get additional entries higher - these systems are very reliable and the fact that they prefer to sell this rally is significant.

Also, in last weeks, post, we specifically mentioned that into the first 3 or 4 trading days of this month bullish potentials are probabilistic. This remains the case, however, starting on Tuesday's AM cash market open, forces turn much weaker with Wednesday being particularly so.

Additionally, IT NEEDS TO BE RESTATED, the markets are in BEAR IMPULSES which implies much further downward pressure to come and does not view this retest as bullish. Nor do RVS and HAL, which contend that the bias in the markets is now statistically a BEAR MARKET. According to very long-term Market Structure Projection overall, downward pressure (ofcourse, with strong rallies interspersed) are probable into March/April next year.

Weekly Impulse Retests

Weekly Impulse Retests

Daily Impulse Retests

Daily Impulse Retests

In closing, We REMIND ONCE AGAIN AS IN OUR LAST POST, that once the shorter-term charts start generating downward impulses, starting from the very short-term 1, 2, 5 and 15 minute charts, risks for downwards progress increases significantly and that type of activity, shorter-term impulse generating fractals across time frames will certainly be in place when we complete upward structures on the intermediate-term to longer-term cycle charts. This can happen, starting at any time. Complacency in this market is not a good option. While the markets can extend upwards, these are fickle upward impulses can truncate abruptly.

DAX – Tick Tools Show the Way in a near 500 Point Drop

Yesterday was a horrid day for DAX. It went up in the morning, when the futures opened and surpassed the 10.000 mark. Actual high was 10.019. And from there it went in a vicious decline to put in a daily low at 9.559. That’s 460 points in just one day!

Now anyone with access to the tools would have been forewarned to pay attention when it counted - at the 10.000 mark. As can be seen, 10.000 was highlighted with a buy X-treme and an X-tick to boot (on v-tick chart). When the market made the high above 10.000, a capitulation bar appeared. Now that’s a dangerous triple combo. And when the market reversed without the moving average getting a chance to get above that buy X, it was a clear sign that market was putting in an important pivot there.

Yet another sign to be cautious on the long side was that the market was still impulsing down on the 15-min and 60-min cycle - from the 10.100 area. And the 60min chart showed a bearish retracement signal at 10.019, which was the high of the day.

Just a regular day in the life of the dax tick tools...

vtick

V-tick chart

60min

60min chart

15min

15 Minute Cycle Chart

mcm “Applied Cycle Impulses, Applied eMotional Impulses – Volatile Markets” Proposed Webinar 2

Applied Cycle & eMotional Impulses

eTickTools Additions Detail

eTickTools Impulses Detail

Identifying Impulses Down

Identifying Cycle Impulses Down

Previously we scheduled an initial webinar to discuss the nature of impulses - both eMotional and Cyclic in regards to trading volatile or even crashing markets: Crash Potential and Techniques to Trade one . We wanted to offer a follow-up webinar and discussion. We are happy to have resolved the technical issues with the webinar tool that we wanted to use previously. So, this should be a high quality and highly interactive experience once it is scheduled. We are putting the Webinar scheduling and attendance to a vote.

The webinar will be free and will be an interactive Q&A format when it is scheduled. We are seeking to get a near-term slot assigned that is convenient to as many people as possible. Our goal is to assist in helping users to find techniques to identify, take advantage, manage and prosper from unexpected shocks or dislocations and emotionally charged market environments.

Below is a vote. Please choose the times that work best for you and supply your email address and we will update you on the final scheduling of the webinar. All the times are quoted in Eastern Standard Time (New York). Also, note you can become  a registered user for our site and vote which will make it easier to sign up for the event once it is scheduled. Registering will be free.


This poll is closed!
Poll activity:
Start date 14-09-2015 04:17:55
End date 16-09-2015 23:59:59

Poll Results:

Scheduling options for the "Applied Cycle Impulses, Applied eMotional Impulses - Volatile Markets Webinar 2 - follow up", when would be your preferred timing?


 

Major and minor updates to eTickTools

Lots of Stuff and Projection Update

This weekend we completed a major upgrade of charts and chart streaming for the mcm site. We added significant new enhancements to the eTickTools Project and we rolled out some new analyses - Historical eMotional Extremes.

From a housekeeping standpoint we will bullet-point the list.

  • Fixed Cycle Display and Markers on 5-Minute chart
  • Fixed Scaling issue on 1 and 2-minute charts
  • Addressed the printing of a double "potential stop-run" when triggering at the open for eTickTools
  • Added Percentile Ranking for each buy and sell-extreme for eTickTools - this is a big deal
  • Added a Ranking for the volume extreme taking place during a Buy or Sell extreme for eTickTools
  • Added auto updating Historical Extreme Charts for both the S&P500 and DOW
  • Added an alpha toolset for DAX that is just in testing phase
  • Added various other general clean-ups and labelling for tools and charts

The additions of rankings to all the eTickTools extremes is a significant enhancement and allows an unprecedented and high quality of gauge of the amount of effort the market is exerting at a specific capitulation point. The addition or a ranking of the amount of transaction at the point is also a significant enhancement. We encourage you to ask questions regarding any of the enhancements.

Major and minor updates to eTickTools

Major and minor updates to eTickTools

Regarding the markets, Daily/Weekly market structure projection has suggested that a consolidation after the projected bounce during the 1st week of September occurred. This is indeed appearing to be playing out. Markets are very bearish and people are very scared which could contribute to a pause in down movement and leads to strength into the week of the 21st. It needs to be made clear that these are contextual time ranges. If you have been reading these pages, you now doubt know that week 1 of September has been viewed referred to as potentially important point for the markets and as such could be a significant turn from an up move to down to new lows or in the more likely case, a down move that comes in the form of a period of consolidation for further highs into the week of the 21st. Additionally, note that MSP was correctly projecting weekly weakness into Thursday, August 20th. However, the turn from down to up did not come during Thursday's day session as projected but rather 9:30 AM on Monday - 1.5 sessions away. It seems to us that a projection made several months ago for a down week into Thursday the 20th being met to within 12.5 cash trading hours is about as accurate as one can reasonably expect during a market dislocation and certainly more accurate than most wave extrapolations and technical analysis would usually be able to be with any reliability. This condition resulted in needed in to rely on shorter term tools: eTickTools and Cycle Impulses for example. We did a webinar on these subject (http://mcm-ct.com/blog/webinar-follow-up-and-content/) and plan another because in the coming markets impulsing beyond emotional extremes and through cycle supports is a key tool that can objectively help to remain on the right side of a market even when the desire of a trader are to take the opposite direction - such as buying weakness when in fact an impulsive move downwards may just be beginning.

As such, eTickTools did an exemplary job of pointing out that the markets were likely under a severe capitulation by triggering multiple X-Tick downward selling impulses during that Thursday's session.  We made this post wich is a good reference: Market Consciousnesses – Running Through a Flux Capacitor. Indeed, the markets have been rushing back through time and retracing the gains of the last years. The danger continues to be high, though for the time being abated somewhat.

DAX Market Structure Projections

DAX Market Structure Projections

Below is an updated chart of the Longer-term MSP (Projections) for the S&P500. With the DAX suggesting a shallower pullback, edge is increased that probability of consolidative behavior for S&P500 is increased into strength into [5] on the chart below. This chart is suggesting a period of consolidation/weakness and then a push into the long referred to week of Sept 21st.

S&P500 Market Structure Projections

S&P500 Market Structure Projections

Looking into the Eyes of the Adversary

Below is a detailed look at the antics the market threw out yesterday. the Cycle Impulses were fantastic yesterday but market emotions were a bit fractured. We wanted to show some details on how to use the tools available in eTickTools to diagnose the adversary. It is a VERY detailed view and something you will probably want to open into a full image and zoom in - the image is very large (not to mention not easy to make) so be aware it may not be easily legible till you zoom in one-to-one.

We are very interested in feedback on this and open to doing a new webinar if there is sufficient interest.

Click this link to pop up a separate window with a full res image. You can right click on the link or image and choose to open in a new window or you can download it.

eTick Tools - Looking into the Eyes of the Adversary - a very detailed look

eTick Tools - Looking into the Eyes of the Adversary - a very detailed look

“Applied Cycle & eMotional Impulses” Webinar Scheduled – See Post for Details

Our webinar, proposed earlier in the week, has been scheduled as per the vote results. We would like to thank all who have voted and helped us identify the best time for the majority of all. The webinar will be recorded and a recording may be available after the event.

eTickTools Additions Detail

eTickTools eMotion Impulses Detail

The webinar is Free and does not require any registration, reservation or credit cards. The objective of the webinar is to discuss details regarding identifying and understanding impulse cycles and eMotional Extremes impulses and how these elements can provide a disciplined edge for trading and especially in volatile or crashing markets. We believe these concepts can provide a objective and disciplined approach with which to interface with markets and manage trades generally and especially so, when market activity is aberrant and trade entries are difficult to locate, execute and risk manage.
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We look forward to seeing you tomorrow.
 
1. join our Webinar session:
     Sunday, August 30, 2015, 8:00 PM, Eastern Daylight Time.

       click to join the webinar
     Meeting ID: 1398-5896
     No password needed
2. Use your microphone and speakers (VoIP - a headset is recommended). Or, call in using your telephone.Dial:
      +1 408-385-2536 (USA)
      +1 408-351-1612 (USA, alternative)
Access Code: 2982-860

mcm “Applied Cycle Impulses, Applied eMotional Impulses – Volatile Markets” Proposed Webinar

eTickTools Additions Detail

eTickTools Impulses Detail

Identifying Impulses Down

Identifying Cycle Impulses Down

Last week we posted this post: Crash Potential and Techniques to Trade One . Since then, in "the Lounge", these techniques have been effective, objective and powerful. The amount of interest, the need and state of the markets leads us feel that further examination for the benefit of our members and readers of such a quantifiable approach. We are putting the Webinar scheduling and attendance to a vote.

The webinar will be free and will be an interactive Q&A format when it is scheduled. We are seeking to get a near-term slot assigned that is convenient to as many people as possible. We feel that there is a benefit on getting this scheduled as soon as possible as the markets, though slated to remain in an upward bias into September, are not in a healthy state and can break at any time. Our goal is to assist in helping users to find techniques to identify, take advantage, manage and prosper from unexpected shocks or dislocations and emotionally charged market environments.

Below is a vote. Please choose the times that work best for you and supply your email address and we will update you on the final scheduling of the webinar. Note all the times are quoted in Eastern Standard Time (New York) Also, note you can become  a registered user for our site and vote which will make it easier to sign up for the event once iit is scheduled. . Registering is free. Simply click on "Register" on the login page.


This poll is closed!
Poll activity:
Start date 28-08-2015 04:17:55
End date 29-09-2015 23:59:59

Poll Results:

Scheduling options for the "Applied Cycle Impulses, Applied eMotional Impulses - Volatile Markets" webinar, when would be your preferred timing?