- Main Trend (weekly): neutral
- Intermediate Trend (daily): up
- Short-Term Trend (480&288min): neutral
No real change in the weekly cycles. They are still oscillating, which means the main trend is neutral. However, as previously mentioned, the fact that resistance has triggered shifts the normal expectation to down movement until a new support level is found. The directionality tool did not move down yet, so a re-test of resistance is still not out of the question before a larger correction. The mcm-MA also provided support, as the market came into its area. As it can be seen from the history, the market couldn't break below the mcm-MA easily, so paying attention to the level indicated by it is important.
On the daily cycles, the unwind of the up impulse is continuing. The bullish retrace (BR) support provided an initial bounce, but the market could not sustain the up movement and came back down and is now back-testing that level again. Those levels are key. The market could regain some composure and bounce to put in an END resistance and a proper unwind of the impulse, like it did on a previous instance (highlighted on the chart). Or, it could break through the support level directly, without triggering an END. That would be quite bearish since it could be an attempt at an impulse down. The next few days will be key as to which option will play out.
The 480 and 288min cycles both attempted up impulses, by breaking above their resistances triggered, however these were reversed (highligthed on the charts). 288 triggered a support level quite quickly after coming below the break-out level and has in the mean time broken below it, with the impulse down looking to confirm most likely in the next trading day, if the weakness continues (by having the mcm-MA also moving below the broken support level). 480min triggered a support level which confirmed right at the lows from Friday. That points to a bounce being the normal expectation. However if the support on 480 will also be broken, then the picture would become very bearish, since true impulses down on 480 and 288min would likely travel quite far and the daily cycles would also start impulsing down in the mean time.
In conclusion, we maintain our view that the market may have registered an important high at the level indicated by the resistance on the weekly cycles. Near term it is again make or break time for the markets. The support level on the daily cycles is under pressure again and the next few days are key to see if they will hold once more and produce another bounce or not.