S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – December 29, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 10:00AMEST, 3:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2682, 10DMA 2677,  20DMA 2659, 50DMA 2612, 100DMA 2550, 200DMA 2479

These are key Fib Levels:  2699, 2673, 2662

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2595(intermediate minor) 2577 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, December 29,  2017

With what appears to be the red MSP tracking overall we should see an open at or near the overnight highs with weakness to follow, but ultimately recovering by end of day.  The only data for today consists of the Baker Hughes Rig count at 1:00PMEST.

MSP

The technical picture is going to have us gapping up over declining resistance in a now completed compression pattern.  Typically price produces a quick thrust out of the pattern which can reverse quite dramatically.  It will be important to mind the backtest of this level for basing.  Good luck today and have a great new year.

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – November 28, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 10:30AMEST, 1:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2596, 10DMA 2587,  20DMA 2585, 50DMA 2557, 100DMA 2509, 200DMA 2448

These are key Fib Levels: 2549, 2557, 2592, 2607

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2595(intermediate minor) 2577 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, November 28,  2017

The overnight session, much like last nights, looks set to open higher and is taking on the characteristics of the red MSP which while a bit choppy through the early session looks to add onto the strength that started in the overnight as the session progresses.  Data is abundant today with International Trade in Goods at 8:30AMEST, Feds Redbook at 8:55AMEST,  FHFA House Price Index and Case Schiller Home Price Index at 9:00AMEST, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Manufacturing, and State Street Investor Confidence all coming in at 10:00AMEST,  and lastly the Gallup US Economic Confidence Index at 2:00PMEST.

MSP

Again we challenged the rising support into the close and looks set to gap higher again this morning.  Until we trade through this level on a sustained basis then buyers still have a firm grasp on the market.  Once this level breaks we can look for the intermediate minor level at 2595 as a clear downside minimum target.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – November 21, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 11:30AMEST, 2:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2578, 10DMA 2582,  20DMA 2579, 50DMA 2549, 100DMA 2502, 200DMA 2442

These are key Fib Levels: 2549, 2557, 2592, 2607

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2597(intermediate minor) 2579 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, November 21, 2017

With only the cyan MSP marking a low at timing through the overnight there is potential a good potential for a reversal around mid day timing and weakness all the way through the afternoon session.  Economic data today consists of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 8:30AMEST, the Feds Redbook at 8:55AMEST, and Existing Home Sales at 10:00AMEST.

MSP

Yesterday we found rising support at the close and sustained trade on a retest of the moving averages which has let to the overnight follow through which looks set to open well over the declining resistance level.  Price action over this area will be important because a failure to maintain above the resistance has a good probability of retracing the entire rally and head towards the 50DMA.  The key word is 'failure' though.  Sustained trade above resistance should be considered basing for a new rally leg.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – September 6 , 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 10:00AMEST, 1:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2461, 10DMA 2453,  20DMA 2452, 50DMA 2253, 100DMA 2427, 200DMA 2363

These are key Fib Levels: 2489, 2466, 2401, 2389

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2491(intermediate minor), 2457(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, September 6 2017

With current price action favoring the magenta MSP thus far we look set to be in for a net flat day with weakness in the morning and strength through the latter portion of the afternoon.  Data wise we have the Fed's Redbook at 8:55AMEST, PMI Services Index at 9:45AMEST, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 10:00AMEST and the Fed's Beige Book at 2:00PMEST.

MSP

The technical picture currently has us working our way through the early stages of a compression pattern with a wide range for price to race through.  Sustained trade above the intermediate minor level of 2457 most likely leads to another run at declining resistance at the very least.  Below, the 2440 area should provide near term support on a break of the nearest rising support.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – September 5, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 1:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2459, 10DMA 2450,  20DMA 2453, 50DMA 2252, 100DMA 2426, 200DMA 2362

These are key Fib Levels: 2489, 2466, 2401, 2389

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2491(intermediate minor), 2459(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, September 5, 2017

With the cyan MSP tracking the best overall through the holiday overnight session, after the initial opening gap down at the beginning of the regular trading hours, expect an overall choppy session.  There are a few items of interest on the economic calendar today with Factory Orders at 10:00AMEST, TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index at 12:30PMEST, and the Gallup US Economic Confidence Index at 2:00PMEST.

MSP

There is very little of technical significance until we get down to the intermediate minor level 2457 where and the broadening support and daily moving averages come into play.  Coupling MSP and the technical picture it would be well advised to remain patient today if not an all out spectator.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – July 7, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 12:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2422, 10DMA 2428,  20DMA 2432, 50DMA 2413, 100DMA 2386, 200DMA 2298

These are key Fib Levels:  2442, 2418, 2407, 2393

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2454(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate), 2374(intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2344(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, July 7, 2017

MSP hasn't had much of a clue to work with as price has been compressed in the overnight.  The 8:30AMEST spike on the Employment Release would lend confidence to the notion of the magenta MSP, so we could be in for a ride starting at market open.  There are two other items of interest today with the EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30AMEST, and the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00PMEST.

MSP

The technical picture had us break below the 50DMA and rising support connecting the two most recent intermediate pivot marker lows.  The current premarket rally will be important to see where it opens.  If it gaps above the 50DMA and back above rising support and over declining resistance and can maintain, it has a clear shot at least to the next intermediate levels at 2323 if not to the next declining resistance and moving average stack in the upper 2420 to lower 2430 area.  Again, below the intermediate 2403 level and things get slippery all the way down to 2383.  Good luck today and have a great weekend!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

 

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – June 26, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 9:30AMEST, 1:15PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2439, 10DMA 2437,  20DMA 2432, 50DMA 2401, 100DMA 2376, 200DMA 2286

These are key Fib Levels:  2459, 2429, 2410, 2399

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2410(intermediate minor), 2404(intermediate minor), 2383(intermediate), 2374 (intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2345(intermediate minor), 2326(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, June 26, 2017.

The overnight action has tracked both the red and magenta MSPs exceptionally well, and both point to weakness through the duration of the session which should be the theme for today.  Data is light on our first trading day of the week with only the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey at 10:30AMEST.

MSP

The technical side of things had us close right on the 5DEMA Friday and currently is set to gap above.  Sellers are going to need to show up in force to push price below the stack of 5DEMA, 10DMA, and 20DMA along with rising support.  The only thing that resides above currently is the Primary and Intermediate pivot markers at the all time high.  A sustained break above the current levels could lead to a runaway rally.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 8-12 of May

The market moved sideways to lower in the first 4 trading days last week, with Friday bringing a stronger effort from the bull side with a push which came very narrowly close to the ATH. Our EWT scenario is playing out quite well and this looks (so far) like the 3 wave move off the important low at 2320ish. Currently 2 main scenarios are on the table: this is part of a more complex correction started at the ATH (a B wave of a flat, as mentioned in the previous newsletter), OR the correction ended at the 2320ish low and this is part of an impulsive move up. Once the current minor wave ends the next correction will give us a clue, 2370 would be the level to watch as the overlap (or not) would add weight to one or the other scenario.
No change for the weekly cycles. Directionality is still moving lower and it almost made it to the lowest level.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are now directly testing the resistance levels (the 2nd END on ES and the 1st END on YM). As mentioned in the previous newsletter, a minor new high is not excluded, however the normal expectation would be for the resistance levels to hold, which would fit better with the flat EWT scenario mentioned.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – January 10, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 10:30AMEST, 2:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2270, 10DMA 2261,  20DMA 2262,  50DMA 2211, 100DMA 2183, 200DMA 2144

These are key Fib Levels:  2275, 2277

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2278(intermediate minor), 2254(intermediate minor), 2214(intermediate minor), 2189(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, January 10,  2016

7:00AMEST timing marked a high via MSP which leaves a number of options available.  10:30AMEST will be key in discerning which MSP is most likely for the remainder of the day, however, weakness seems to be the general theme till later this afternoon on a whole.   At 10:00AMEST we have the JOLTS release with Wholesale Trade.

MSP

On the technical side of things we broke down out of our rising wedge and successfully backetested it then found shelf support just below.  It would not be surprising to see a poke under to test the stacked moving averages and then reverse back up for a larger retracement of the decline.  Below the averages and things get rather thin until we find the remaining gap opening between 2245 and 2249 with potentially a brief stop at the intermediate minor level at 2254.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update –September 14, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  12:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2145, 10DMA 2153, 20DMA 2170,  50DMA 2168, 100DMA 2123

These are key Fib Levels:  2157, 2146, 2113, 2082

These are key primary and intermediate levels:   2155 (intermediate minor), 2131(intermediate minor), 2126(primary major)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, September 14,  2016:

A quiet overnight session is currently leading into weakness starting from the premarket session with the white, red, and magenta MSP's all in the realm of reason, so be on the alert at mid day.  HAL and RVS still remain in their long placemarker positions which gives a marginally upward bias, but these can be closed at anytime so it is best not to overweight them.  It is going to be another exceptionally quiet day on the economic data front with only EIA Petroleum Status Report coming out at 10:30AMEST.  Be mindful of the 60 and 135min cycle charts as they have a nice range defined with current Bearish Retraces and Ends in place.  Good luck today.

MSP

MSP

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels