Technical Laboratory Update For The Week Of August 28, 2016

Hopefully everyone had a good weekend.   Long term MSP has a bit of a September curve ball which departs from presidential cycle seasonality, but the one thing to be mindful of is that MSP is not a magnitude type instrument.  It shows a general bias.  Which is to say, although the chart shows what appears to be another rally leg to new all time highs, that does not need to transpire.  A marginally upward/sideways week would satisfy that portion of the MSP just the same.

Long Term MSP

Long Term MSP

Overall on the week, while retesting the all time highs again we've continued on the drawn out downward preferred Elliott Wave ending diagonal/rising wedge magenta path.  While the shorter term has thrown a number of whipsaws, Friday's being the most recent courtesy of Mrs. Yellen, the market has behaved quite well from an intermediate term perspective.

SPX Intermediat Term

SPX Intermediat Term

VIX, while at historically low levels, has begun to show some life.  Considering where timing has us within the next two months and seasonal precedence for weakness until November.  Expectations of a run to $20, most likely before the end of October based the other previously mentioned items seems very reasonable.  Until something is seen in the internals to negate the mounting evidence, being a patient and cautious buyer appears to be the most prudent course of action at present.

vix

Historical VIX Chart

In conclusion, all the evidence compiled at the beginning of August still holds validity and continues to point to weakness over the next couple of months with the exception of the one spike in longer term MSP starting in the middle of the second week of September.  Good luck this week and see you in the Lounge.

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