Short-Term Projections – Look Out Below

Yesterday was an exceptional day. Good and bad. Sloppy market structure caused by constant emergency central bank interventions all over the world have made the markets a bit more unpredictable than usual. However, Timing, eTick-Tools and MSP  all worked very well and the Gold projection was tracked very well into 2:30 PM timing drop and bounce into the close. In addition to getting Sell extremes at the lows -  before the close we alerted in the lounge that the overnight session favored an upward bias that could be significant. Certainly at this time it was not obvious that strength would be to new highs. This is important to understand, market structure is designed to project timing and directionality NOT scale of price movements. It is easy to want to ascribe relative size movements to an MSP chart - however, it is important not to do this.

For example, the weekly MSP projects down for the next 4 weeks or so. Looking at the chart (posted previously - not shown in this post), it would be easy to ascribe a 120-point drop for the ES from it. However, the implications are directional - a drop could be 40, 60, 120, 240 points or anywhere in between.

Today's strong overnight activity could well lead into another short capitulation which would be indicated on the Red projection below. The Gold market structure projection (MSP), is equally probable at this point. Probabilities, however, are not positive for the outcome of this action and favor a pronounced downward bias into 2:00 PM with likely acceleration into he close thereafter.

July 16th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

July 16th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

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