Yesterday's daily market structure probabilities favored a low in the morning 3:00 AM to 6:00 AM and then a significant change in bias from down to up on a daily basis. For us, daily in this case means morning to morning NOT close to close. The low from the Friday-Monday Session occurred at the 5:15 PM Friday futures close. So, from a trading hours perspective - which is how MSP works, we were around 9 hours early. This is more than normal. However, when is known that a significant change is approaching preparedness is warranted, and we were prepared. So, in that regard no significant retest of the Friday low into the AM hours Monday closed the window on downward probabilities and turned to the upside around 3:00 AM.
Interestingly, the most bearish possibility yesterday would have been if a 7:00 AM high were to have occurred and held. However, this was NOT the favored market structure. As 12:00 pm high was the highest probability, and it occurred within 30 minutes. From there, a 3:3o PM cash session low was implied as highest probability, and this also occurred within 30 minutes.
All in all, it is hard to be more accurate. Additionally, however, e-Tick-Tools and Gap-Tools further refined the cash open, indicating very low probabilities of gap fill and high probabilities of a break upward out of the opening range with stop runs triggering against short position - which was met.
Today, a 5:30 am Low would favor outcomes of a 1:00 pm high with pullback/consolidation into the afternoon and close. Probabilities for a negative cash session are not favorable (does not rule "down" out but odds are not favoring). They would best be supported with a 6:00 am high, and that does not appear to be likely.