Restrained Market Emotions Corroborate August Drop as Likely Downside Breakout

The VIX is a very dubious measure of emotion.

  • Firstly, it is subject to intense manipulation.
  • Secondly, it only reflects panic on drops.
  • Thirdly, euphoric behavior or panic at tops is not reflected or reliable in any form.

For these reasons, mcm eMotion and market fact analysis tools are much more insightful and reliable. What we can see from the chart below is that the markets are in frail shape and still bullish biased (via orange running cash inflow/outflow) - likely to the detriment of those bulls over the short to near-term. Signs of underlying bullishness will likely fight a good fight and remain as markets drop in the future. However, downside breakouts of emotion triggered hard well before the August weakness as can be seen below [4]. Ironically, emotional commitment on this bounce as well as commitment via funds being allocated to equities are mediocre to average at best...also, shown below [3 and 5]. While people may want to assume that the August drop was capitulatory, share directionality [2] and cash withdrawn from markets on daily basis [1] certainly reflect that illusion. These are in fact, more than likely breakouts and signs of much more to come. The reasons for this is the comparative low emotional fear and panic at the recent lows and the low eMotion and commitment to the current bounce. 

mcm Accumulation Index Components

mcm Accumulation Index Components

Note the nearing breakdown below 2009 lows of the mcm Smart-Money Index, the mcm Market Open Index and the mcm Market Close Index. Given the nature of these indexes, they suggest low balances in investor accounts and thus high leverage in the markets and a breakdown could cause dramatic stresses on the markets system as well as the financial system in general.

mcm Indexes and mcm Smart Money Index

mcm Indexes and mcm Smart Money Index

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