The markets are in frail shape. Friday's activity was particularly disturbing in that the markets could not even get the strength to use a prime setup and structural setup to squeeze bears. Markets made a swift reversal out of Buy Extreme resistance starting around 1:00 PM and never really looked back. While a continued bounce is possible very near-term (not that we are saying is likely or favored since probabilities are leaning the opposite currently), longer-term MSP and Daily MSP all suggest downward probabilities for the near future as has been consistently posted regarding this time frame on these pages. We thought it would be, considering the potential impulsive cycle activity developing in the markets, important to look back at the 2007 and 2008 period and topping process via several charts as published below:
From our post regarding the Janurary Effect in May 2015:
Early in the year, we decided to do the most thorough study of all the behavioral and market structures possible to confirm or deny the veracity of the January effect. The resulting study produced the "MCM January Effect Model" with very interesting and powerful results.
The chart shown below puts a dim light on the outcome of this year. The rest of the report produced rather stunning results and to our surprise, proved that using a structured approach to a January effect could reveal market behavioral tendencies that are WAY beyond question concerning validity. Some data outcomes produced 96% win or loss rates with 60 to 70 plus qualifiers in the samples. This means 57 to 67 valid winners/losers out of 60 to 70 fulfilling observations.
This report is being refactored and will be available to members when that process is complete. Meanwhile, the data shown below sheds interesting color on 2015. Though there are a low number of observations out of 100+ samples, the methodology we used we feel is highly reliable which makes these outcomes something not to be taken lightly. Ideal turn timing is mid June to mid July.
So far, the year is tracking all the expectations pretty much as posted on these pages. Note that we have been consistent, not flipping our analysis since our first posts this year. We believe this is a significant difference from most analysis work that we have observed. The reason we are pointing this out is NOT that we need to take credit for acurate analysis during a challenging time for the markets as well as analysts - but rather because the advantages of objective, non-traditional data and structure centric analysis provides more relevant and valuable answers - it's just that simple. Even if such analysis is incorrect, its is still highly relevant because, as a basis, objective, and "fact-based" probabilities can be assessed. Failure to achieve them can be as important as achieving the probabilistic outcomes.
We have consistently posted the mcm-Smart Money Indexes, which have continued to deteriorate and most currently sit at 2009 lows - this is a decidedly troubling and challenging hurdle for the markets to heal as there has been a vicious sell-off going on for much longer than headline prices would seem to indicate. (see:Drama in the Market Seas and Eye of the Storm: Smart Money Indexes Obliterated)
Currently, market facts are NOT FAVORABLE near-term and do not turn for several weeks.
The larger patterns hearken to rhyme with 2007 and 2008 and most certainly call for heightened caution. Central Banking may now have to start focusing on other issues than propping up the stock markets prior to their voyages into destabilizing negative equity as referenced in our IMAGINARY NUMBERS series.
If the impulses that appear to be setting up gain traction there could be quite a lot of damage done in a short amount of time. The primary hope for markets is to bounce NOW to better test the cyan impulse cycle breakdowns or they will most likely require weeks of downward price movement to dissipate downward energy sufficiently as to be able start a better recovery attempt. This is also supported by MSP directional projection probabilities suggesting that after mid-month in October the market is likely try to find footing for a significant upwards effort. Below are current impulses cycles that have been setting up: