Projections Today – Sloppy Market Structure = Less Clear Edges

The market structure has been conflicted and sloppy, decreasing the relevance of probabilities on a short-term basis. This something that typically happens when the markets are moving without much foundation or confidence. Short-term market structures become less clear, and tracking becomes sloppier as chaos reigns. In the current situation, central banks are all over the place not quite sure what to pay attention to next. Market structure is driven historically most prominently by central banks and large institutions. While the mcm Index charts posted on the weekend show us pretty well what the institutions are thinking. The central bank contingent is going from one fire to the next - which serves to make things a bit more sloppy.

KEEP IN MIND THAT MOST MARKET STRUCTURE PROJECTIONS ARE AT POTENTIAL INFLECTION POINTS THAT SUPPORT PROBABILITIES FOR PRONOUNCES WEAKNESS FOR THE SHORT, MEDIUM AND LONGER-TERM.

The way it stands currently. Preference is for a UPWARD move (wave) into 9:00 AM or around the pre-cash open being reversed and trend down for the remainder of the day. Or, slightly lower probability, a DOWNWARD move into the 9:00 AM area or around the pre-cash open being arrested and bounce into the 2:30 PM timing. Therefore, the clearest potential edge is Opening high favors intraday weakness or the reverse.

There is one emerging potential that we are monitoring closely is the Gold projection. This is the most negative biased of them today. For this reason, it is reasonable to pay attention to the minor 10:30 AM timing at [2] and be aware that an up move that is reversed between 8:30 AM and 10:30 AM timing imply increased downward risks for the rest fo the session.

Error: Timing was represented as 1:30 PM when this post was initially posted. That is INCORRECT. Afternoon timing window is 2:30 PM and this has been fixed.

July 14th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

July 15th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

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