MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 7 – 11 Dec

Executive Summary:
- Main Trend (weekly): neutral
- Intermediate Trend (daily): neutral
- Short-Term Trend (60min&135min): neutral

Same as before, there was no significant developments on the weekly cycles. They are currently oscillating and resistances held once more (at 2110.5 ES and 17907 YM)  . The indicated levels are still critical to watch, since breaking above would be very bullish. However the normal expectation is for them to hold and market to head lower until a new support level is triggered.


Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are still in impulses up, although ES could be close to unwinding its impulse. In the previous newsletter we were mentioning: "Normally the market should go higher, until an END resistance is put in". That is exactly what happened and an END resistance level was triggered on ES at 2105.25 (point 1 on the chart). That is significant, since considering the resistances on the weekly it adds another hurdle for the upside of the market and could also signal that the up impulse finished unwinding. The normal expectation is for the market to head lower from here until a new support level is triggered.


Daily Cycles

The 60 and 135min cycles had an interesting week. The 135min started an impulse down, which was reversed without the usual unwinding (BR and ENDs) and is currently oscillating, having found resistance at 2093.25. The 60min provided excellent clues during that time, catching the bottom with a support level (close to 2040) and then starting a impulse up which warned of further upside. The impulse up had a bullish retrace (BR) close to the breakout level (point 1 on the chart), which normally has very high odds of holding. That is exactly what happened this time and the market bounced until it found resistance and put in an END resistance level. At point 3 on the chart we can see that both 60 and 135min have a support level very close to the same price area. That area is now key to watch near term. Normal expectation is for it to hold and market to bounce until a new resistance is put in. But if the market breaks below without bouncing, that could trigger a stronger reaction to the downside.


60 & 135 Cycles

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