MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 5 – 9 Sep

Executive Summary:
Main Trend (weekly): up
Intermediate Trend (daily): up
Short-Term Trend (480&288min): neutral
Details:
No big change on the weekly cycles. ES is in a confirmed up impulse, while YM still needs the mcm-MA to also cross the broken resistance level before confirming the up impulse. It will be interesting to see if that will happen. As previously stated, the normal expectation is for the market to back-test the break-out level and in our case, that back-test becomes very important to see if the market can sustain the up impulse or not.

Weekly Cycles

Weekly Cycles

On the daily cycles, there was an important development last week. Both indexes triggered support levels, so the normal expectation near term is for the market to head higher until resistances are triggered. YM already put in a 3rd END resistance, meaning the up impulse finished the unwind and the index is now in a normal oscillation. However ES only had a 2nd END resistance and so the next resistance becomes very important since it will be a 3rd END resistance; and will mark the end of the impulse unwind also on ES. If the market breaks directly the support levels before resistances are triggered higher, that would be more directly bearish.

Daily Cycles

Daily Cycles

Both 480 and 288min cycles unwinded 2 consecutive up impulses with 3rd ENDs and are now oscillating, having had already support levels trigger. The market bounced enough from there to make it possible for the resistances to trigger any time. Reaction to those will be important, especially since we started getting quite a few LREs (lower risk entries) for shorts lately on both cycles.

480&288min Cycles

480&288min Cycles

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