MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 29 Feb – 6 Mar

Executive Summary:
Main Trend (weekly): neutral
Intermediate Trend (daily): neutral
Short-Term Trend (480&288min): neutral

Details:
The weekly cycles are still just oscillating, last generated signals being support at 1804 ES and 15364 YM. The market continued to bounce from the back-test of support and now the price reached the mcm-MA, about which we were mentioning last week that would be interesting to watch for a reaction.

Weekly Cycles

Weekly Cycles

On the daily cycles, both YM and ES triggered resistance levels, but which were spiked above by the relentless bounce. The market did not yet break into an up impulse, as the mcm-MA is still below the break-out level, however it will, if the market continues to head higher. Interesting is that the last LRE (lower risk entry) for shorts was canceled on YM, as the mcm-MA turned green. The market is still below the LRE level, so if it would’ve been played, it would still allow for a profitable exit. Going forward, near term it would be important to watch if the break-out over resistances was just a head-fake or if it will turn into an up impulse. The levels of the resistances (1944 on ES and 16516 on YM) are therefore still important to watch, to see if the break-out will hold or if the market will come back below.

Daily Cycles

Daily Cycles

The 480 and 288min cycles are in slightly different positions. Both broke into up impulses, however 480min reversed the up impulse, by having support trigger lower than the break-out level and now showed a new resistance at the high of the week at 1969. 288min broke into an up impulse which held and started the dissipation phase having already a 2nd END at 1941.75. The market broke above and had a capitulation bar at the high, reversing afterwards and now the market is back-testing the previously broken resistance. This back-test if very important near term, especially since the mcm-MA is testing the break-out level as well. That means that if the market bounces from here, the nested up impulse will likely be confirmed and more upside will be expected. Breaking below the back-test would invalidate the up impulse and we will be on the look-out for a new support level lower.

480 & 288 min Cycles

480 & 288 min Cycles

0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.