MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 23 – 27 May

Executive Summary:
Main Trend (weekly): neutral
Intermediate Trend (daily): up
Short-Term Trend (480&288min): neutral
Details:
The weekly cycles continued to move slightly downward from the resistance level. As mentioned a while back, the mcm-MA provided some support and the market failed to break below it so far. Also a historically relevant level was tested last week and held (highlighted on the chart). The directionality tool is still at the highest level and it would be important to see when it starts moving lower. So far it looks still open whether the market will be able to back-test the resistance level again or if it will accelerate down.

Weekly Cycles

Weekly Cycles

On the daily cycles, the unwind of the up impulse is continuing. After failing to sustain the initial bounce off the bullish retrace (BR) support, the market back-tested that level again, came slightly below it and recovered it once more. Although the support level may still hold and this bounce could continue until an END resistance is triggered higher, the fact that the price came below the support level shows the market is no longer full-on bullish. That also means that the END could come after a weaker bounce than usual.

Daily Cycles

Daily Cycles

The 480 and 288min cycles continued to whipsaw their support and resistance levels, showing the emotional behavior of the market. The last level triggered was support on both, which appears to be holding after being spiked below in a few instances. As the predictive pivot is also higher, the normal expectation is for the bounce to continue until a resistance level is triggered. How the market behaves there will be important for the near term.

288&480min Cycles

288&480min Cycles

In conclusion, it seems the market is staying true to the saying a top is a process not an event. The 288&480min cycles did not break into real impulses just yet (although 480 had an impulse down unwind, that had more a sideways form rather then being truly impulsive). The BR support on the daily still attempts to hold and is the key line in the sand for downside movement, while the resistance on weekly is key for upside movement.

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