MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 21 – 25 Nov

Compared to the election week Brexit type event, last week saw things calming down. Although the intra-day swings in ES were 20+ points in the first 2 trading days and then 15 points in the last 3, that felt like no volatility at all. The market managed to continue to grind higher although the high from the election week was barely overtaken by 5 points.
Considering the absence of major swings, it is no wonder that the weekly cycles saw no major developments. The directionality tool finally bounced from it’s minimum level confirming the ongoing bounce. As previously stated, the cycles now need resistances to come up which would be a strong signal that the bounce is coming to an end. Of course, to anticipate where these might trigger we have to look at the shorter timeframe cycles.

Weekly Cycles

Weekly Cycles

Zooming in to the daily cycles, these also spiked below supports and then recovered them strongly. So we have the the same expectation as for the weekly - watching for a resistance level to trigger. We did get some LRE (lower risk entries) for shorts, however the mcm-MA just recently changed bearish (red color) and we can see from such past events that in this case, the LREs are not very reliable. The directionality tool is moving upward and has been doing so for a while, actually since before the “Trump-win” Brexit like event. It will be important to see when it peaks and starts moving down.

Daily Cycles

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles show    
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