MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 21-25 August

Last week was very spectacular and continued with even higher volatility than 2 weeks ago. After gaping up and moving higher into Wednesday, Thursday was again a bad omen for the markets (just like 2 weeks ago) and saw a big 30+ points decline in a single day. The market did break the low from 2 weeks ago, which means that something (i.e.an impulse wave) did finish at the ATH, despite it’s strange shape. The retrace of the first move lower from the ATH was quite big (more than 70%) and so far this looks like only 3 waves from there, so we are still in no position to scream “the top is in”. The action was certainly very bearish with the market apparently restarting to take the stairs up and the elevator down, as 3 days of slow up action were reversed in a single day, which also saw the previous weeks’ lows taken out. So it’s worth noting this change in character. From an EWT stand point there are too many options on the table right now to make a clear call. If the market stops here or a bit lower (2410-2420 is important support), then it could be just an a-b-c down, with new ATH to follow. If this is indeed the start of something more bearish, then this wave should continue significantly lower. Monday’s action looks to be key for the intermediate trend.
On the weekly cycles, ES is testing the mcm-MA directly, so bulls may try to defend this level again.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles also are directly on the support levels. ES triggered support at the lows from 2 weeks ago and is now working on breaking below. While YM is back-testing the previously broken resistance level. Both indexes have consecutive LREs (lower risk entries) for longs.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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