MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 15 – 19 Aug

Executive Summary:
Main Trend (weekly): neutral
Intermediate Trend (daily): up
Short-Term Trend (480&288min): neutral
Details:
No real change on the weekly cycles, except the fact that the continued grind higher made the predictive pivot move higher. The up impulse on ES is still not confirmed, but if market holds up it could in the next 1-2 weeks. YM is still dragging on this and needs more time to (potentially) confirm. The action on the directionality tool is not very bullish with the lines becoming thick, but it doesn’t mean the market will turn immediately either. We have to look to the shorter time frame cycles for near-term clues.

Weekly Cycles

Weekly Cycles

On the daily cycles, both ES and YM managed to break above the resistance levels in the form of a 2nd END. It thus becomes very important to see if the market manages to stage a real break-out from here. Directionality bounced from the lowest level, however it is turning back down on ES, so it’s important to see what it will do next.

Daily Cycles

Daily Cycles

480 and 288min cycles show the plateau the market reached, after which it actually didn’t move much. 288 started a new impulse up and already began to unwind it, having an END resistance at last weeks’ highs, close to 2185. 480min actually managed to break over its 3rd END resistance and confirm a nested up impulse. Those 2 levels become very important for the near term since coming back below the break-out level on 480 would cancel that nested impulse and the bullish momentum, while breaking above the END resistance on 288, would mean more up movement is likely.

288&480min Cycles

288&480min Cycles

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