MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 13 – 17 Jun

Executive Summary:
Main Trend (weekly): neutral
Intermediate Trend (daily): up
Short-Term Trend (480&288min): neutral
Details:
On the weekly cycles, as warned about the possibility in the previous newsletter, the market tried to get above the exact level of resistance, at least on ES. It is interesting that YM is under-performing quite noticeably and never made it to the resistance level, while ES managed to overcome it slightly. The long term view is unchanged and the expectation is for the resistance level to hold and the market to register a more significant correction from this general area. Where exactly the market will finish running the stops is difficult to pin-point exactly and the shorter term cycles should provide better early clues in this regard. The directionality tool is still close to maximum levels and would need to start moving down to confirm a turn.

Weekly Cycles

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles show better the brief move above resistance and here the YM moved in sync with ES, although it’s under-performing vs the previous end of April high. The directionality tool started to move down on both ES and YM and its behavior going forward will be telling for if this is a more significant turn or not. The mcm-MA could provide some near term support, together with the new LRE (lower risk entry) for longs which triggered on YM on Friday. On a bigger picture level we expect the up impulse to either be finished or to require another BR and a 2nd END. For another BR support to trigger more downside will be needed though.

Daily Cycles

Daily Cycles

The 480 and 288min cycles provided early clues about the turn. 480 had previously unwinded an up impulse with a BR and an END resistance in the same area as the weekly and daily resistances. 288 also had resistance trigger there. The market attempted to break-out over those resistances, however failed to sustain momentum and 480min never confirmed the nested impulse. The directionality tool moving lower also warned that the break-out was likely a head-fake and that the up momentum was not sustained. After coming back below resistances, both cycles then triggered support levels which were broken and are now very close to confirm the down impulses. If they will confirm and hold a back-test, that would warn of a bigger correction.

480&288min Cycles

480&288min Cycles

Note: please be aware that the price on the charts has been corrected with the roll-over of the ES and YM contracts from June to September.

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