MCM Newsletter – Outlook for 1st week of March

The market made a lower high last week, very close to the 76,4% retrace of the entire decline off the ATH and then dropped with conviction. More than 140 points from the high registered on Tuesday, to the lows on Friday. From there, it managed to bounce but the market looks to be in a dangerous set-up for longs. As the 1st wave down from the ATH was more than 300 points, if this lower high holds, we might get another wave down of at least equal (but usually greater) strength.
No big changes in the weekly cycles. The move lower off the ATH did turn directionality down and this has continued to move down, despite the convincing bounce off the lows. That is usually a bearish sign and likely means the bounce will eventually be sold.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles had triggered supports in the form of bullish retraces (BR) at the lows and now ES also triggered a corresponding END resistance at the lower high. This means that level is very significant and likely is strong resistance.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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