Intraday Projection: Deferring to the Larger Picture

Be warned today can be a tough one for the bears during the day session. One needs to prepare for that. Today is a more or less modal situation around the open. If we reverse any strength into the open - probabilities prefer down into 1:00 PM (with possible acceleration at 2:30 PM) or the reverse. Keep in mind that a move today could become persistent.

On the bigger picture front, Daily Market Structure Projection, as posted last week, indicated a turn Tuesday AM from an upwards directional movement to downwards movement. This has occurred. Today probabilities were also for a lower AM session than yesterday AM. This has occurred, and the condition is met. The largest potential downside momentum in terms of points is suggested with a down AM session into Thursday AM. This can be pronounced and test the 2065 to 2044 area if it wishes. Be aware that we are likely entering another central bank bubble blowing contest and may take an intervention attempt and classically like all central bank activity - will be over done. So, move into early September from a potential central bank panic this week may be torture for shorts and, ironically a windfall for a only a few days for longs who will likely have similar frustration in reaction to it. Strong drop after first weeks of September.

August 19th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

August 19th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

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