Daily & Weekly Market Structure Projection Update Probabilities: DOWN

Below are updated daily and weekly market structure projections with extensive notes. There was an mcm Hindenburg Omen on Thursday last week in addition to highly weak performing bias for Friday and Monday. Comments regarding this potential were made on these pages though we were hoping to see market hold up into Friday or Monday. Using our tool set our adaptation for the market true directional probabilities were reassessed each day at around 4 to 5 AM and adjusted correctly for each day. Intraday, market structure has been behaving MUCH more reflective of a bear market tendency which is towards eccentric and unpredictable behavior during the cash session.

One comment regarding the potential for positive biases as NOT reflected as high for the near-term. There are lots of Elliott wave labels possible to indicate this or that upward structure. We find EW most helpful but within what fits in the probability skew of projections NOT in what looks pretty or entertaining. Though all market potentials should NEVER be dismissed, it is most common for a change in direction to drag along the previous mentality and preconceptions even for the best analysts. This is one reason that using probabilities reduces emotions. When the markets do something, not within the probability skew - the edge is compromised, and the next fractal for probability needs to be assessed as we have been doing on these pages. This process creates much less wasted energy or effort. Therefore, consider keeping analysis consistent and simplistic at market turning points where emotions, mental, macro analysis can lead to confusion and drag past behavioral expectations forward.

If the weekly market structure projections are correct, then we should start to see markets take on more traditional behavior during the cash session. Counter-intuitively is "up biased" for most of the cash session into 12 or 2:00 pm with large down moves overnight into the next cash session trapping bearish traders in the live session.

One note regarding what has the potential to become a larger change in character for the markets over the next weeks and months. This has been mentioned previously, but we will reiterate. There is a very high proportion of upwards price bias in strongly down trending markets. Most of the moves happen before the cash session and trap traders for 5 hours or so before relenting back towards downward potential into the close and in the single digit hours overnight.

June 16th, 2015 Daily & Weekly Market Structure Projections

June 16th, 2015 Daily & Weekly Market Structure Projections

For reference, we are including the last post for reference. As can be seen nothing changed in the chart and there was quite a lot of valuable data represented on it.

June 10th, 2015 Daily & Weekly Market Structure Projections (Previous Post Reference)

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