We apologize for limited amount of recent articles published on the site. We have been very active in managing, analyzing and examining detailed market activity in the lounge and also sharing via other forums directly with people we care about. At this juncture, the post from last week which showed the 1840 area as key support has now come into play right in the MSP projection timing area. An inflection point is building and should shortly trigger.
However, it must be stated that the failure to liquidate for the extended periods from 2012 to 2015 sets up a severe potential for volatility greater than the volatility we have seen so far. In this analyst opinion, near-term would be something like a capitulatory type of volatility that would likely lead to a short-term reversal. However, volatility is likely to remain elevated as leverage remains under severe stress and overall account equity has continued to drop.
Note that if liquidation occurs today (or tomorrow) as many commodity centered hedge funds, futures managers and investment firms are likely being taken out in body bags, this liquidation will certainly not remain concentrated in the commodity space.
Oil is interestingly putting in a significant low presently according to MSP which is looking for a significant and potentially somewhat extended rally, as a result of this week's inflection point. Initially, it would be believed that equity markets will consider any recovery of oil prices to be positive and therefore, will correlate. However, it is highly likely. After about two and half weeks or so while oil continues to rally the equity markets will likely no longer correlate with that rally and liquidation phase will continue more focused on traditional risk assets into March in what hopefully will be a more lasting low.
Please be especially concerned with the level shown on the charts below. It is this analysts hope that we remain above the 1680 level by 30 to 40 points, and that enough emotional energy is released and leveraged reduced that some short-term recovery can take hold. Ideally, a recovery rally would look like something extremely strong as capitulated. Long's become shorts and are once again trapped. We ideally would look for return to the 1922 1950 area on such rally into early February.