An Overview of the Markets and Projections

While many are likely to have been turning their bearishness into bullishness over the last week or so, having confused bearishness and the potential for new lows in September where bullishness was warranted into November with of upward probability. Currently, we are sitting in a key timing window for the S&P500 as we have discussed recently and have high probabilities of a turn either being in as of the beginning of this timing window last week or possibly into this week (ideally early).

While we did expect back and fill earlier in the month of October from the 2140 area, the primary scenario expected strength into November. However, running corrections reduced the pullbacks that should have appeared early in the month to trivial events. Even though a correction/consolidation was registered on the charts, this correction period was classified as a running correction. A running correction is a pattern in which the impetus for market participants to interact with the market is so strong in one particular direction that what normally would be a price retracement pattern or consolidation becomes a consolidation with direction. Meaning, that instead of a consolidation pulling back it actually grinds upwards during the correction process when occurring in an upward market and then breaks out. These patterns are prone to very strong reactions in that many people attempt to short what looks like a breakdown that actually never occurs and immediately runs against them - thus trapping as many participants as possible. These patterns are powerful in up markets and in down markets and are occurring increasingly as greater intervention in markets occurs.

Given this, market structure projection indicated a pronounced period of upward bias throughout October and left translated MSP precisely indicated the previous turns. The market has been leading (which we refer to as left translation) the normal market structure projections. We represent this in the charts with the cyan plot showing the left translated projection which has coincided very well with activity in the markets over the last 2 1/2 to 3 months.

Moreover, market internals and other symptoms of ill health abound, regardless of hyperbole from analysts or the Fed - it appears things are not healthy. Preceding the August crash, the equal weighted S&P 500 index underperformed dramatically. This index has underperformed even more dramatically during this bounce. It is this analyst's interpretation that this is a sign of significant stress. The stress will need to be resolved, and if history is a guide, the resolution is likely to be stronger and quite likely more persistent than our August episode.

Note, the market structure projection for commodities and bond markets. These projections suggest equally interesting timing and also contradict the prevailing perception in the markets as to what are reasonable expectations near-term and even medium-term. It appears that there is a quite marked probability of a buy-the-news reaction in bonds combined with the sell-the-news reaction in equities and latent dollars strength to keep pressure overall on the risks markets. It also appears that the dollar may have a significant inflection point in December to early January, which may, in fact, be a larger sell-the-news type event.

Accumulation index components

Accumulation index components

S&P 500 Index - equal weight vs. capitalization weight performance

S&P 500 Index - equal weight vs. capitalization weight performance

S&P 500 market structure projection

S&P 500 market structure projection

US treasury market structure projection

US treasury market structure projection

Gold market structure projection

Gold market structure projection

US dollar market structure projection

US dollar market structure projection

Oil market structure projection

Oil market structure projection

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