S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – September 6 , 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 10:00AMEST, 1:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2461, 10DMA 2453,  20DMA 2452, 50DMA 2253, 100DMA 2427, 200DMA 2363

These are key Fib Levels: 2489, 2466, 2401, 2389

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2491(intermediate minor), 2457(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, September 6 2017

With current price action favoring the magenta MSP thus far we look set to be in for a net flat day with weakness in the morning and strength through the latter portion of the afternoon.  Data wise we have the Fed's Redbook at 8:55AMEST, PMI Services Index at 9:45AMEST, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 10:00AMEST and the Fed's Beige Book at 2:00PMEST.

MSP

The technical picture currently has us working our way through the early stages of a compression pattern with a wide range for price to race through.  Sustained trade above the intermediate minor level of 2457 most likely leads to another run at declining resistance at the very least.  Below, the 2440 area should provide near term support on a break of the nearest rising support.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – September 5, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 1:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2459, 10DMA 2450,  20DMA 2453, 50DMA 2252, 100DMA 2426, 200DMA 2362

These are key Fib Levels: 2489, 2466, 2401, 2389

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2491(intermediate minor), 2459(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, September 5, 2017

With the cyan MSP tracking the best overall through the holiday overnight session, after the initial opening gap down at the beginning of the regular trading hours, expect an overall choppy session.  There are a few items of interest on the economic calendar today with Factory Orders at 10:00AMEST, TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index at 12:30PMEST, and the Gallup US Economic Confidence Index at 2:00PMEST.

MSP

There is very little of technical significance until we get down to the intermediate minor level 2457 where and the broadening support and daily moving averages come into play.  Coupling MSP and the technical picture it would be well advised to remain patient today if not an all out spectator.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – July 7, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 12:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2422, 10DMA 2428,  20DMA 2432, 50DMA 2413, 100DMA 2386, 200DMA 2298

These are key Fib Levels:  2442, 2418, 2407, 2393

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2454(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate), 2374(intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2344(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, July 7, 2017

MSP hasn't had much of a clue to work with as price has been compressed in the overnight.  The 8:30AMEST spike on the Employment Release would lend confidence to the notion of the magenta MSP, so we could be in for a ride starting at market open.  There are two other items of interest today with the EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30AMEST, and the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00PMEST.

MSP

The technical picture had us break below the 50DMA and rising support connecting the two most recent intermediate pivot marker lows.  The current premarket rally will be important to see where it opens.  If it gaps above the 50DMA and back above rising support and over declining resistance and can maintain, it has a clear shot at least to the next intermediate levels at 2323 if not to the next declining resistance and moving average stack in the upper 2420 to lower 2430 area.  Again, below the intermediate 2403 level and things get slippery all the way down to 2383.  Good luck today and have a great weekend!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

 

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – June 26, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 9:30AMEST, 1:15PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2439, 10DMA 2437,  20DMA 2432, 50DMA 2401, 100DMA 2376, 200DMA 2286

These are key Fib Levels:  2459, 2429, 2410, 2399

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2410(intermediate minor), 2404(intermediate minor), 2383(intermediate), 2374 (intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2345(intermediate minor), 2326(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, June 26, 2017.

The overnight action has tracked both the red and magenta MSPs exceptionally well, and both point to weakness through the duration of the session which should be the theme for today.  Data is light on our first trading day of the week with only the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey at 10:30AMEST.

MSP

The technical side of things had us close right on the 5DEMA Friday and currently is set to gap above.  Sellers are going to need to show up in force to push price below the stack of 5DEMA, 10DMA, and 20DMA along with rising support.  The only thing that resides above currently is the Primary and Intermediate pivot markers at the all time high.  A sustained break above the current levels could lead to a runaway rally.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Technical Lab Update For The Week Of November 6, 2016

While price appears to have departed from historical seasonal, which is understandable considering this election year can be categorized as anything but normal, we'll focus on some levels to be mindful of on the SPX chart.  Twice on Friday price challenged the 2086 Primary Intermediate Level which provided support and price was also rejected at the high of day by the Intermediate Minor Level at 2099.  With the 200DMA and two Primary Intermediate Levels residing in the 2086 to 2073 zone it is to be expected that this area will be substantially supportive barring a gap open on the underside of 2073.  In this gap scenario 2058/59, but more likely 2040 will want to be tested before a bounce back up towards the 200DMA and the underside of 2073.  HAL and RVS still have reasonably sized long positions on and with the confluence of technical and MCM related support just underneath, a price recovery of reasonable magnitude would not be surprising from this general area.

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Now that we've progressed deep enough into the proposed diagonal pattern we can focus on another aspect that will eliminate it as an option and put the expanded flat firmly on the table.  In an Elliott Wave contracting diagonal the fourth wave must remain shorter than the second wave for the structure to remain valid.  In this case the 2064 level would be that demarcation point.  From there we could focus solely on the lower levels before any sort of bottoming expectations were to take place.  Good luck trading this week and mind mid week for election results because it could make for a bumpy ride.  Trade safe.

SPX

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update –September 14, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  12:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2145, 10DMA 2153, 20DMA 2170,  50DMA 2168, 100DMA 2123

These are key Fib Levels:  2157, 2146, 2113, 2082

These are key primary and intermediate levels:   2155 (intermediate minor), 2131(intermediate minor), 2126(primary major)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, September 14,  2016:

A quiet overnight session is currently leading into weakness starting from the premarket session with the white, red, and magenta MSP's all in the realm of reason, so be on the alert at mid day.  HAL and RVS still remain in their long placemarker positions which gives a marginally upward bias, but these can be closed at anytime so it is best not to overweight them.  It is going to be another exceptionally quiet day on the economic data front with only EIA Petroleum Status Report coming out at 10:30AMEST.  Be mindful of the 60 and 135min cycle charts as they have a nice range defined with current Bearish Retraces and Ends in place.  Good luck today.

MSP

MSP

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update –September 13, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  9:30AMEST, 3:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2158, 10DMA 2163, 20DMA 2173,  50DMA 2167, 100DMA 2122

These are key Fib Levels:  2142, 2135

These are key primary and intermediate levels:  2176(intermediate minor), 2155 (intermediate minor), 2131(intermediate minor), 2126(primary major)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, September 13, 2016:

Consolidation looks set to continue through the day session from the overnight with the magenta and cyan MSP best representing the price action up to the time of this writing.  Price action at the open should be the deciding factor as to which path is most probable, so be wary of the 9:30AMEST timing window.  Another quiet day with regards to economic data with only the Redbook release at 8:55AMEST.

MSP

MSP

The historical extreme's chart worked wonders again as we reentered the void and raced all the way back up to the newly formed levels up near the all time highs where it found resistance again.  Please be cautious with positions in the empty zone because as we've seen over the past two days, price has the ability to traverse this area in a very relentless fashion.

MSP

Historical Extremes

As noted yesterday, the Primary Major level was overshot before catching a massive bid off the 100DMA.  This overshoot serves as a warning that price has a good chance of retesting levels below there in the not too distant future.  We are still in the early stages of the seasonally weak period which adds weight to the notion of potentially lower prices.  Good luck today and keep an eye on market open timing.

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels

 

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update –September 12, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  9:30AMEST, 2:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2158,  50DMA 2163, 100DMA 2121

These are key Fib Levels:  2127, 2139

These are key primary and intermediate levels:  2131(intermediate minor), 2126(primary major), 2115(intermediate major)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, September 12, 2016:

The market continued its waterfall in the overnight session but with the substantial bounce this morning it looks to recoup a good deal of the earlier losses.  Cyan seems to be the odds on favorite at present with the early morning strength, but keep an eye on the gap and tick tools to see what makes sense at the open of regular trading hours and the coinciding timing window.  Price action will be the primary focus as there are no economic releases to speak of, but there are a few Fed heads to speak.

MSP

MSP

How price behaves around the primary major level will be important to note because it will give clues to what kind of price action we should expect going forward.  A solid rebound from that area will likely produce a more pronounced bounce, but an overshoot to the downside should be taken as a warning that areas below that level will want to be tested.

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels

As noted on the historical extremes chart last week during banter in the expert lounge, there was a substantial void between newly formed extremes and the existing.  As soon as selling began, this gap turned into a massive vacuum and traversed the gap very quickly.  Now that we've reached clusters of historical extremes again it is most probable that price will become choppy again.  Keep a close eye on the tools and timing into market open to get an idea of what is in store for the session.  Good luck today!

Historical Extremes

Historical Extremes

Technical Laboratory Update For The Week Of September 11, 2016

The narrowest sustained range in 100 years of DJIA history came to a dramatic end this week with a gut wrenching two plus percent decline thus trading the entire range in a single day.  As dramatic as the decline was, it is still well within the scope of reason for what we've been looking to transpire since the first of August once prime trading season got underway.

Range

DJIA Range

 

It was no surprise that VIX took off on Friday from its historically subdued levels and was one of the clues that was pointed out last month was a huge area of concern for any substantially bullish scenarios.  Historically, any trade below a 12 handle is typically met with a spike up to 17 at a minimum which was touched upon in the August 21 weekly update.

VIX

VIX

While the VIX chart got us in the ballpark of what to expect in the months ahead, the DJIA seasonality charts narrowed the time frame down substantial.  Simply by noting the presidential election year cycle and historical YoY weakness that coincides in the early stages of the month of September and runs typically into the first of October set the stage for what took place on Friday.

Seasonality Comparison

Seasonality Comparison

Lastly was the technical backdrop to lay this all upon with the preferred Elliott Wave path in magenta after we had tagged the 2191 symmetry target that was achieved back on the 15th of August.  There is no change in preferred path since we began outlining at the inception of the Technical Lab updates.  There are some caveats that need to be put into place especially considering how early we are in the seasonally weak period and how dramatic the initial drop was.   The 2110 to 2100 area will provide a great deal of clues as to whether we are going to continue the waterfall like decline down to the lower 'Expanded Flat Wave 2' range, or if we will find a bottom at the lower rising wedge/ending diagonal trend line.  Good luck this week and trade safe.

SPX

SPX

mcm Weekly Wrap_Week 36

After being range bound for quite a while the market finally broke out, or better said broke down. The brutality of the decline was surprising, the market losing approximately 80 points in just 2 days. As the readers of the mcm Weekly Newsletter know, we have been expecting a back-test of the 2105 level for a few weeks now and the market delivered just that, although a bit abruptly. Coinciding with the Weekly Newsletter, the Technical Analysis Lab weekly update has been noting since the start of August to expect weakness coming into the beginning of prime trading season with decade, presidential, and historical seasonality all aligning for the early fall season.

The weekly cycles show why the 2105 level is so important. It was a resistance level above which the market broke out and it became an impulse up on ES (after the mcm-MA also broke above that level). And usually, after an impulse is confirmed the market comes back to back-test the break-out level. An interesting fact is that YM has under-performed significantly on the rally and, although it also broke out above the resistance level, it was nowhere close to confirm the up impulse. Also, YM sliced right back below the resistance level on Friday's drop. The current back-test on ES is very important. Holding it and bouncing would be very bullish, while breaking back below would reverse the up impulse and cancel the bullish momentum.

Weekly Cycles

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles show why we were doubting (and still are)  the real break-out into an up impulse on the weekly. They have been in a big up impulse ever since it broke out above resistance around 1950 ES. The impulse up has started to unwind with a bullish retrace (BR) and an END, then another and a 2nd END, so it was in a terminal phase, not supportive of a new big up move.

Coming back to the recent past, the daily cycles show nicely the brutality of the decline registered last week. The market basically lost aprox. 80 points in just 2 days and sliced directly through the support levels. In fact ES is now close to confirm a down impulse. As we were mentioning in the mcm Newsletter last week, breaking directly the support levels before resistances trigger is very bearish, although it depends a lot on what the market does in the next 2-3 days. If the break-down is confirmed and the market cannot manage to bounce back to or even above the support levels, then the bearishness will be confirmed. We do have to mention that both ES and YM triggered LREs (lower risk entries) for longs on Friday, so a near term bounce (maybe after a minor new low) would be normal expectation based on that.

Daily Cycles

Daily Cycles

There are a couple of options from an Elliott Wave standpoint that we are currently tracking. Although our primary focus is for the S&P 500 and its futures, we do track many other markets as well, one of the those being the NYSE Composite. Weighting a number of various items, expectations are for some near term weakness and then another run at new all time highs, but the depth of the correction currently underway can take a couple of paths as noted above.

NYSE Composite

NYSE Composite