S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – February 28, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2735, 10DMA 2221,  20DMA 2716, 50DMA 2734, 100DMA 2662, 200DMA 2557

These are key Fib Levels:   2792, 2742, 2643, 2617, 2450

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(primary minor), 2817(intermediate minor), 2779(primary minor), 2727(intermediate minor), 2651(primary minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, February 28, 2018

Data is light from this point forward today with only the Chicago PMI at 945AMEST, Pending Home Sales at 10:00AMEST, and the EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30AMEST.  The technical picture has drawn such a clear line in the sand since we failed to maintain the primary minor level at 2779.  With the intermediate minor level at 2727 and a massive confluence of daily moving averages between 2740 and 2720 coupled with rising support, a failure here is all but assured to cause a cascading effect down to the 100DMA and next primary minor level at 2650 at the very least if not more.  Good luck today and be vigilant.

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – February 27, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2729, 10DMA 22712,  20DMA 2721, 50DMA 2733, 100DMA 2660, 200DMA 2555

These are key Fib Levels:   2792, 2742, 2643, 2617, 2521

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(primary minor), 2817(intermediate minor), 2779(primary minor), 2727(intermediate minor), 2651(primary minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, February 27, 2018

Today's data is abound starting with Durable Goods, International Trade, Retail Inventories, and Wholesale Inventories at 8:30AMEST, the Feds Redbook at 8:55AMEST, Case-Shiller Home Price Index and FHFA House Price Index at 9:00AMEST, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, and State Street Investor Confidence Index at 10:00AMEST, and lastly, Farm Prices at 3:00PMEST.  The technical side of the house had us base on the 10DMA and just below the intermediate minor level at 2727 along with the 20 and 50DMA's before knifing higher.  This general area becomes important at yesterday's highs with the generation of a new primary minor level which sellers can build a second opportunity to send the market much lower from should the 2730 area fail.  Rising support coming through the 2760 level will be the first clue whether sellers are gaining an upper hand in the next potential leg down.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – February 19, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2696, 10DMA 2670,  20DMA 2750, 50DMA 2725, 100DMA 2649, 200DMA 2546

These are key Fib Levels:   2792, 2742, 2521

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(primary minor), 2817(intermediate minor), 2651(primary minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, February 20, 2018

An easy start to a shortened trading week with no data points to concern ourselves with.  Last weeks technical picture should put sellers on alert as we broke over the intermediate minor level at 2725, the 50DMA, and declining resistance.  It will be important for sellers shove this back under these levels as quickly as possible lest risk a buyers basing process.  Given the distance between intermediate minor levels a basing process has the potential to open up a quality upside move back into the lower 2800's where as a failure here has the exact opposite effect with the next lower primary minor level being in the mid 2600's.  Be mindful of the round number psychology and rising support at the 2700 level and good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the week of 19-25 February

The market managed to bounce back from the lows registered on the previous Friday and last week saw only green daily candles painting. It reached now a bit higher than the 61,8% retrace of the entire decline from ATH, which is quite an achievement considering how vicious the drop was.

The weekly cycles have shown a warning for the bears, by having LRE (lower risk entries) for longs at the lows from 2 weeks ago. ES even triggered a 2nd consecutive LRE at the higher low from last week. Big picture is still unchanged on this time frame, with the up impulses still established, but this correction was big enough that it could trigger a bullish retrace (BR) support at the lows.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles show a more zoomed-in picture of the decline and subsequent bounce. They were also showing LREs for longs, albeit a bit early. More importantly they triggered bullish retraces (BR) supports on both ES and YM. The market bounced strongly from there and basically a corresponding END could trigger any time, which doesn't mean it cannot trigger much higher from here.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – February 9, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2673, 10DMA 2756,  20DMA 2782, 50DMA 2719, 100DMA 2638, 200DMA 2538

These are key Fib Levels:   2448

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(intermediate minor) 2811 (intermediate minor) 2595(intermediate minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, February 9,  2018

Data to close out the week is light with only Wholesale Trade at 10:00AMEST, and the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00PMEST.  The technical picture saw more weakness present itself yesterday as sellers stepped back into the fray.  Fibonacci points to a symmetry zone all the way down at 2448 which also coincides with a 23.6% retrace of the rally from the 2011 lows.  There is a good deal of potential for choppiness in this general area as a result of the intermediate minor levels stacked together, of which we tested the second layer of yesterday.  Overhead we now have established two declining resistance levels and a potential for a wedging pattern although that doesn't seem very probable given the symmetry target, but it is something to be mindful of in the event the structure is skewed upward as a result of buying pressures.  Good luck today and have an outstanding weekend everyone!

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – February 8, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2750, 10DMA 2797,  20DMA 2794, 50DMA 2718, 100DMA 2635, 200DMA 2535

These are key Fib Levels:   2763

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(intermediate minor) 2811 (intermediate minor) 2595(intermediate minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Thursday, February 8, 2018

Given the primary and intermediate levels charts are repopulating, today's update will use a regular SPX chart.  Data for today Is light with just the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index at 9:45AMEST, and the EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30AMEST.  While the bounce off the lows is still corrective in nature, there hasn't been any indication of sellers reasserting themselves which lends some to the idea that the initial drop is going to take some time to consolidate itself before making another larger move direction to be determined.  An Idealized correction would find itself peaking around the 2763 to 2365 area which hosts a confluence of Fibonacci retrace and extension targets and declining resistance.  Rising support will come into play in the  in the mid 2660's.  Inside this expanded range is a bears den wrought with hazards so be nimble and flexible if you plan on playing this area.  Good luck today!

SPX

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – February 6, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2775, 10DMA 2812,  20DMA 2797, 50DMA 2716, 100DMA 2633, 200DMA 2533

These are key Fib Levels:  2640

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(intermediate minor) 2811 (intermediate minor) 2595(intermediate minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, February 6, 2018

Data is light today in what is set to be another drubbing for buyers with only the JOLTS report at 10:00AMEST.  The futures market found its 200DMA in the overnight and then promply recovered back to the 100DMA.  Present price is set to open in the intermediate minor level cluster primarily between 2595 and 2577.  It will be important for buyers to establish themselves in this area, but given that the futures market tested the 200DMA, that puts very good odds on the cash market replicating the move.  Be extremely careful today because an errant entry could prove to be catastrophic. Good luck.

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – February 5, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2838, 10DMA 2835,  20DMA 2799, 50DMA 2611, 100DMA 2629, 200DMA 2530

These are key Fib Levels:  2845, 2851

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(intermediate minor) 2811 (intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, February 5, 2018

We hope everyone had a great weekend!  Price continues to decline unabated as was though to be the case once the 20DMA let go.  The most probable target now is the 50DMA and rising support in the lower 2700 region that should provide some relief for buyers to gather enough momentum to make at least a bounce attempt from if not more.  Anyone looking for the long side would be well advised to be nimble and choose your entries with strictly defined demarcation points.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for 2nd week of February

Finally the market stopped the relentless up move and had a rather panicky turn. A drop of more than 100 SPX points in one week is definitely something that draws attention, but it was not only that. The market character seems to have changed also, as the market sliced through supports like they were not even there. This is definitely the first sign of the bear in quite a long time.
The weekly cycles, show just how overextended the market was until last week. The nested up impulse traveled more than 600 points and more than 1 year without any correction big enough to qualify for a bullish retrace (BR). That is rather unusual both in terms of both price and time.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles show the same story as the weekly, although the last up impulses started only in October 2017. But they also traveled a whooping 400 points without any retrace. This correction looks as the first serious one and we already have a lower risk entry (LRE) for longs at Friday's lows, which doesn't mean it's over, but the next low might be greeted with a new one, which would have to be taken seriously.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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