MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 25-29 September

The action seemed to slow last week, the market making a minor new high slowly into Wednesday, then pulling back slightly. From an EWT perspective, the bulls are still favorites and if this is indeed setting up as a nested move up, it should finish around 2490 and resume the up move. In the bear camp 2480 would be an important overlap and if they manage that then things might go towards getting the bull nest out of the picture.
No change on the weekly cycles. But the rally didn't go unnoticed, as directionality started to bounce .

Weekly Cycles

On the daily cycles we are currently above the resistance on ES. The up impulse is not confirmed yet, but it will if the market continues to move up. YM triggered resistance at the high so it remains to be seen if it manages to push forward and break that as well or if this will turn things.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – September 20, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2501, 10DMA 2488,  20DMA 2470, 50DMA 2265, 100DMA 2440, 200DMA 2378

These are key Fib Levels: 2509

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2491(intermediate minor), 2457(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, September 20, 2017

 

With the FED press conference after the meeting announcement this afternoon, there isn't much to be expected from the market until then.  2491 and rising support is still there for sellers to aim for and nothing overhead with the exception of broadening resistance and round number psychology.  Data we have Existing Home Sales at 10:00AMEST, EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30AMEST, FOMC Meeting Announcement at 2:00PMEST, and Fed Chair Press Conference at 2:30PMEST.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 18-22 September

The sideways action from two weeks ago was resolved last week in the same way we got used to in the last few years - up. Last week was certainly bullish, with 5 green daily candles and several new ATHs. Although the last 3 days saw the market only grinding up, the declines were very limited, so nothing to cheer on from the bear camp. From an EWT perspective, now that the market made new highs, the favorite is still the bull option, which looks like a nested move up from the low at 2417. Even if that will not turn into a nest and will prove to be only a bigger 3 waver, it still looks like it needs a bit more up. The bear option is that this turns out to be either the flat we were mentioning in last week’s newsletter or that this overlap is not a nest, but an ending diagonal. The latter will gain weight if the market heads down and overlaps 2480 before making 5 clear waves up off 2428.
No change on the weekly cycles. Directionality is still heading lower despite the upside from this week.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are in an interesting place. ES broke above the resistance level and is close to confirming a new up impulse. That would be very bullish if it happens.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – September 15, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2488, 10DMA 2477,  20DMA 2459, 50DMA 2260, 100DMA 2436, 200DMA 2373

These are key Fib Levels: 2497, 2486, 2478

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2491(intermediate minor), 2457(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, September 15, 2017

Happy Friday everyone!  With the half life of ICBM launches effect on the market now but an hour or so, we've managed to retrace virtually all of last nights drop.  Perhaps a strategically placed Economic point will have more of a reaction, as such, we have Industrial Production at 9:15AMEST, Business Inventories and Consumer Sentiment at 10:00AMEST, and the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00PMEST.  The technical picture remains virtually unchanged with nothing more than a successful backtest of the intermediate minor level at 2491 yesterday.  There is still roughly 15 points of fudge room before coming into rising support and all but round number psychology above the ATH.  Good luck today and have a great weekend!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – September 13 , 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: n/a

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2475, 10DMA 2468,  20DMA 2456, 50DMA 2257, 100DMA 2434, 200DMA 2370

These are key Fib Levels: 2497, 2484, 2477

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2491(intermediate minor), 2457(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Today is light in the data department with the EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30AMEST, and the Treasury Budget at 2:00PMEST.  With the systems short the current advantage is to the sellers, however, there have been two successful support outcomes from backtesting the 2491 intermediate minor level which indicates the market is still quite resilient.  We still have a good deal of space below if the market decides a pullback is in order and likely wouldn't catch rising support and moving averages till somewhere around 2477.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 11-15 September

Last week was another sideways week. Most of the action was on Tuesday, when also a rather large range (26 points). The other 3 days in the holiday shortened week had very little volatility and didn’t move the price much. From an EWT perspective last week was significant though because Tuesday’s low overlapped the 1st high off the lows. Which means this is either a bullish nest going up or we have a rare double 3 which started at the ATH (the famous w-x-y structure or 3-3-3). I favor the double 3 instead of the flat because the B wave off the lows didn’t retrace 90% (which is required for the flat to be in place). That means the bears still have one option to head lower more immediately, but that move lower will only be 3 waves, so likely not go so much lower (compared to a flat).
No real change on the weekly cycles. Directionality is heading lower still, which could be a sign the market needs more downside action in the short term.

Daily Cycles

The daily cycles seem to add to that conclusion with resistance levels triggered at the 1st of September’s highs. Those levels become important to watch and are likely to be hard for the bulls to get past without a trip lower (and a new support).

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – September 6 , 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 10:00AMEST, 1:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2461, 10DMA 2453,  20DMA 2452, 50DMA 2253, 100DMA 2427, 200DMA 2363

These are key Fib Levels: 2489, 2466, 2401, 2389

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2491(intermediate minor), 2457(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, September 6 2017

With current price action favoring the magenta MSP thus far we look set to be in for a net flat day with weakness in the morning and strength through the latter portion of the afternoon.  Data wise we have the Fed's Redbook at 8:55AMEST, PMI Services Index at 9:45AMEST, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 10:00AMEST and the Fed's Beige Book at 2:00PMEST.

MSP

The technical picture currently has us working our way through the early stages of a compression pattern with a wide range for price to race through.  Sustained trade above the intermediate minor level of 2457 most likely leads to another run at declining resistance at the very least.  Below, the 2440 area should provide near term support on a break of the nearest rising support.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – September 5, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 1:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2459, 10DMA 2450,  20DMA 2453, 50DMA 2252, 100DMA 2426, 200DMA 2362

These are key Fib Levels: 2489, 2466, 2401, 2389

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2491(intermediate minor), 2459(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, September 5, 2017

With the cyan MSP tracking the best overall through the holiday overnight session, after the initial opening gap down at the beginning of the regular trading hours, expect an overall choppy session.  There are a few items of interest on the economic calendar today with Factory Orders at 10:00AMEST, TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index at 12:30PMEST, and the Gallup US Economic Confidence Index at 2:00PMEST.

MSP

There is very little of technical significance until we get down to the intermediate minor level 2457 where and the broadening support and daily moving averages come into play.  Coupling MSP and the technical picture it would be well advised to remain patient today if not an all out spectator.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for First Week of September

Last week was the most bullish one in quite a while. Tuesday put in a low in the o/n on the North Korea missile test news, but from there the bulls did exactly what they needed to. They defended the previous week’s lows and moved up never looking back. They also managed to overlap 2475 which negates the most bearish scenario (a nested sequence on the downside). So while that seals an 3 wave move off the ATH, the bears do have one more option as far as EWT goes. And that is a (yet another) flat. However, there is quite a lot to be done before that takes shape (namely that 2455 is overlapped before this develops into a 5 wave sequence), so the bulls have to be viewed as favorites at this point.
On the weekly cycles, the mcm-MA continued to provide support and market bounced yet again from there. No sign of a support bullish retrace (BR) just yet.

Weekly Cycles

The supports on the daily cycles held nicely and directionality also bounced. Bulls did what they needed to and avoided a potentially very dangerous situation (an impulse down).

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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