S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – August 29, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 9:30AMEST, 2:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2444, 10DMA 2443,  20DMA 2455, 50DMA 2250, 100DMA 2421, 200DMA 2356

These are key Fib Levels: 2454, 2447, 2401, 2389

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2491(intermediate minor), 2459(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate),

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, August 29, 2017

The overnight session thanks to a little help from Mr. Kim while volatile has been tracking the magenta and white MSP the best which would lend itself to a flat to down overall regular trading hours session.  Data wise we have the Feds Redbook at 8:55AMEST, Case Shiller Home Price Index at 9:00AMEST, and lastly a double dose of confidence with both the Consumer and Investor Confidence Surveys coming in at 10:00AMEST.

MSP

With the pending regular trading hours gap down, the 100DMA and intermediate minor level of 2424 is a solid area of interest.  Sustained trade below that level and things get slippery with very little in the way of support levels or technical help until the psychological level at 2400 and then the intermediate level at 2383.  Buyers have their job cut out with multiple declining resistance levels and a pile of moving averages bearing down on any rally attempts, but their first target to reclaim would be 2440.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Last Week of August

Last week seemed uneventful compared to the previous 2 weeks. Monday made a new low, albeit minor, then bulls got back in the game by protecting that low with a big up day on Tuesday. Big is a relative term, as that was “only” a bit over 20 points, nothing like the 30+ we got used to recently. The rest of the week saw sideways movement inside Tuesday’s range, so we can definitely say that the week ended undecided. From an EWT perspective we have an overlap of the first wave off the ATH, so now we have clear levels to watch for the bull/bear scenarios. The low at 2417 is all important as breaking it would mean that a nested move lower has started, which would see us a lot lower before it finished. On the upside, 2475 is the level to beat for bulls to be out of the woods (at least for now) as this would seal in a likely a-b-c down from ATH, which would mean new highs should follow.
On the weekly cycles, the mcm-MA did provide support yet again on ES, as we were saying last week. It remains to be seen if it will continue to do so.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles both put in supports. ES triggered had already support at the lows from the initial drop off the ATH, while YM reversed it’s nested up impulse to put in a fresh support at this week’s lows. Interesting that directionality is still stuck at the lowest level, which is a warning the bulls need to do a bit more heavy lifting to get a more significant bounce going.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 21-25 August

Last week was very spectacular and continued with even higher volatility than 2 weeks ago. After gaping up and moving higher into Wednesday, Thursday was again a bad omen for the markets (just like 2 weeks ago) and saw a big 30+ points decline in a single day. The market did break the low from 2 weeks ago, which means that something (i.e.an impulse wave) did finish at the ATH, despite it’s strange shape. The retrace of the first move lower from the ATH was quite big (more than 70%) and so far this looks like only 3 waves from there, so we are still in no position to scream “the top is in”. The action was certainly very bearish with the market apparently restarting to take the stairs up and the elevator down, as 3 days of slow up action were reversed in a single day, which also saw the previous weeks’ lows taken out. So it’s worth noting this change in character. From an EWT stand point there are too many options on the table right now to make a clear call. If the market stops here or a bit lower (2410-2420 is important support), then it could be just an a-b-c down, with new ATH to follow. If this is indeed the start of something more bearish, then this wave should continue significantly lower. Monday’s action looks to be key for the intermediate trend.
On the weekly cycles, ES is testing the mcm-MA directly, so bulls may try to defend this level again.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles also are directly on the support levels. ES triggered support at the lows from 2 weeks ago and is now working on breaking below. While YM is back-testing the previously broken resistance level. Both indexes have consecutive LREs (lower risk entries) for longs.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – August 15, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 9:30AMEST, 12:15PMEST, 2:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2458, 10DMA 2467,  20DMA 2470, 50DMA 2248, 100DMA 2413, 200DMA 2340

These are key Fib Levels: 2415, 2452

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2459(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate), 2374(intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2344(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, August 15,  2017

Overnight price action has left a high degree of ambiguity relative to the MSP of preference so it seems the best way to approach this is to wait for the next timing at 9:30AMEST to gather some more evidence for the regular trading hours potential path.

MSP

MSP

Yesterday saw buyers close back above the 5DEMA in what appears to be a consolitory fashion, but to claim any real validity, sustained trade above the 10 and 20DMA's would be preferrable.  A retest of either the intermediate level just below at 2459, or the 50DEMA would also be highly probable after such a sharp rally.  With only an intermediate pivot marker at the lows, buyers have the advantage until a new one presents itself either here or at higher prices.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – August 14, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 9:30AMEST, 1:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2461, 10DMA 2468,  20DMA 2469, 50DMA 2248, 100DMA 2411, 200DMA 2338

These are key Fib Levels: 2489, 2459

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2459(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate), 2374(intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2344(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, August 14, 2017

Current MSP has been tracking white through the overnight which would suggest morning weakness till the afternoon portion of the session from the regular trading hours open.  Economic outlook for this morning involves Business Inventories and Housing Market Index at 10:00AMEST.

MSP

The technical picture is going to have us open up above the 50DMA at present and near declining resistance, so some sort of sharp reaction downward at the open would not be surprising.  Above that we'll have the lower 2460's area providing more resistance with a stack of DMA's and an intermediate minor level.  Further down, the 2420 zone will provide support with the 100DMA, rising support and another intermediate minor levels.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 14-18 August

Last week saw volatility come back with a vengeance. A new ATH was reached on Tuesday with a spike-like move, but that was immediately sold off hard. SPX lost more than 50 points from that high to the low registered 2 days later. Friday ended inconclusively but very close to that low and still in, what appears to be, a crash channel. That was for sure the best feast the bears had in a while, but from an EWT stand-point it is hard to scream “the top is in”. Because the last wave into the ATH was very choppy and full of overlaps, being difficult to file that off as an impulse. Which means the B wave (into the new ATH) option we were mentioning last week is still alive and well and that does not bode well for bears. If that is indeed what we are dealing with, after this (presumed C) wave is done a new thrust to the highs will follow. Of course, strange impulse waves have been known to happen, so I would not bet the farm we’ll make new highs, but if the market stops in this general area I would keep this option in mind. The more the market continues lower, the less odds for the flat and more weight to the scenario the top is in for a while.
No change on the weekly cycles. ES is getting close to the mcm-MA again, so it would be interesting to see if it will provide support again.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are in an interesting place. ES broke back below resistance, while YM is still above and just met the mcm-MA, which seems to provide support. The up impulse is confirmed on YM, but not on ES, which is an interesting divergence. We do have a fresh new LRE (lower risk entry) for longs on ES which is also pointing up (and in favor of the EWT flat scenario).

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – August 8, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: n/a

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2474, 10DMA 2474,  20DMA 2464, 50DMA 2243, 100DMA 2407, 200DMA 2330

These are key Fib Levels: 2489, 2459

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2454(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate), 2374(intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2344(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, August 8, 2017

Yesterday's price action had us push up out of the compression pattern and we are currently back up against the all time highs.  Sustained trade above the compression pattern should be considered nothing more than a consolidation looking to push higher back towards the broadening resistance in the 2480/90 region.  Economic data is relatively light with only the Redbook at 8:55AMEST and JOLTS at 10:00AMEST.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 2nd week of August

The market did pretty much nothing last week, moving in a very tight range and all inside the limits of the previous Thursday’s range, which we were mentioning last week as important. This sideways move is likely to precede a strong move and it remains to be seen if that will be up or down. From an EWT standpoint this can be either a wave 2/B (part of a move lower) or a wave 4 (part of an up move). I believe the bullish option is favorite, but technically both are possible. The range from the last ATH day (7/27) are still important and good lines in the sand.

No change on the weekly cycles. Directionality didn’t make it to the max level yet, but it is still moving up.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles managed to break above resistances. ES in a rather shy manner, but YM did this in a more convincing manner, already confirming a new up impulse. This is a serious warning for bears since another long leg up could ensue. Most likely a back-test of the breakout will come soon and that back-test is all important. If it holds, then bears need to sit on the sidelines for a while; if it fails and market drops back below the resistance level, then the up momentum will be negated.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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