MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 1st week of August

The market moved mostly sideways in the past week, seemingly trying to catch its breath after the relentless upward push. It did manage to make marginal new highs in the middle of the week and Thursday saw an head fake to a new ATH which was then sold hard, the market dropping more than 20 points. The week could’ve ended badly for bulls, but they saved the day on Friday defending Thursday’s lows, so it ended rather muted around the same levels as at the start of the week. The near term EWT picture is complicated now. It’s possible the most recent ATH was a B wave, with the strong selling that followed to be C of a flat. This option would see new highs rather directly. Or it could be that the impulsive move off that ATH is something more. Regardless of which one will play out, Thursday’s range limits are important lines in the sand - both the high and the low.
On the weekly cycles, directionality is moving back up on both indexes, which means bears were unable to change the trend. Nothing much to add except these are looking rather bullish.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are in a make or break situation. Both indexes managed to move slightly above resistances, but not decisively. The resistance levels are important and might still hold, a reversal back below them acting as a warning for bulls that it was just a head-fake breakout. If the market continues to run up and breaks above successful then bears need to sit on the sidelines and wait for another inflection point that might signal a turn.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 24-28 of July

The market continued the bullish momentum and pushed to new ATHs after a brief pull-back into mid week. The high of the week was reached on Thursday, with Friday seeing a retreat from there. Like we were saying last week - the bulls are favorites and in this environment it’s very hard (and risky) to call a top. The near term EWT option the bears still have is for this to be a B wave (off the low at 2405). And if that’s what this is, then there are enough waves for it to be complete. Of course, there are also a lot of bullish options out there, so the B wave is far from being favorite. That would change with an overlap of 2440, but that seems very far away right now.

No new development on the weekly cycles. Directionality is starting to creep back up, which would be very bullish if it made it to the maximum level.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles triggered corresponding resistances to the supports of 2 weeks ago. ES managed to spike slightly above that, while YM has respected it so far. The normal expectation now is for the market to retreat from the said resistances. In fact YM looks to be doing just that with directionality tilting lower and not being able to push past resistance.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 17-21 of June

The market it making history again making fresh ATH and closing very near them on Friday. It seems that the 3 waves decline we were mentioning last week (with the low at 2405) was all that it was, since we held that low and made new highs. Of course this can still be a B wave of a flat and if the market were to stop close to where we are and head down strongly, it would add weight to that scenario. But this option has to be viewed as the underdog now, so bulls are yet again favorites.

Nothing new to report on the weekly cycles. Directionality is worth keeping an eye on for early clues. We mentioned that it’s behavior was not bullish, but given this rally, that might change.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles provided an early warning to this ramp. Both ES and YM had supports triggered. ES canceled the nested up impulse, by having support trigger just below the previously broken resistance. While YM confirmed the up impulse and had a bullish retrace (BR) support. Both those supports held and were pointing up, at least until corresponding resistance level trigger.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 10-14 of June

We are back after a 2-weeks summer holidays and it seems things got more interesting in the market with the volatility starting to pick up. The market made yet another ATH on 06/19 and then pulled back in a more volatile manner around 50 points. There is nothing to write home about for bears just yet though, since this is just a 3 waves decline so far. Therefore the low from 06/29 sitting at 2405 is important from an EWT (and bears) stand point.

No major signal on the weekly cycles expect for directionality which had an interesting development. It had a failed bounce off the lows, meaning it didn’t quite make it to the maximum level before heading down again. Normally that is quite bearish, so bulls need to take that as a warning for the near term. Just as a reminder, these cycles are still in up impulses, so the normal expectation is for the first more significant pull-back to be bought, as it should trigger a bullish retrace (BR) support which would lead to another bounce.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are in a make or break position for the near term. ES didn’t quite make it to confirm a new nested up impulse, while YM did, but just barely. What happens in the next 1-2 weeks is important for how these cycles will shape up. If bulls can push here, then another leg up is to be expected, while the bears would hope to manage to turn this below the resistance levels to avoid that. In any case the said levels are important to watch.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – July 7, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 12:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2422, 10DMA 2428,  20DMA 2432, 50DMA 2413, 100DMA 2386, 200DMA 2298

These are key Fib Levels:  2442, 2418, 2407, 2393

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2454(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate), 2374(intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2344(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, July 7, 2017

MSP hasn't had much of a clue to work with as price has been compressed in the overnight.  The 8:30AMEST spike on the Employment Release would lend confidence to the notion of the magenta MSP, so we could be in for a ride starting at market open.  There are two other items of interest today with the EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30AMEST, and the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00PMEST.

MSP

The technical picture had us break below the 50DMA and rising support connecting the two most recent intermediate pivot marker lows.  The current premarket rally will be important to see where it opens.  If it gaps above the 50DMA and back above rising support and over declining resistance and can maintain, it has a clear shot at least to the next intermediate levels at 2323 if not to the next declining resistance and moving average stack in the upper 2420 to lower 2430 area.  Again, below the intermediate 2403 level and things get slippery all the way down to 2383.  Good luck today and have a great weekend!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

 

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – July 5, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: N/A

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2428, 10DMA 2431,  20DMA 2433, 50DMA 2411, 100DMA 2384, 200DMA 2295

These are key Fib Levels:  2428, 2424, 2410, 2393

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2454(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate), 2374(intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2344(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, July 5, 2017

Happy post holiday everyone!  Data is looking rather robust in quantity today with MBA Mortgage Applications at 7:00AMEST, US Job Creation Index at 8:30AMEST, Feds Redbook at 8:55AMEST, Factory Orders at 10:00AMEST, Gallup US ECI at 2:00PMEST, and the all important FOMC Minutes also at 2:00PMEST.  The shortened holiday trading saw us fail to maintain the 5DEMA, 10DMA, and 20DMA stack and sold off rather abruptly into the close.  With the systems flat and the pivot marker at the most recent intermediate swing low, buyers currently old the advantage.  Their first objective is going to need to be regaining the moving averages and sustaining trade above the first declining resistance.  Intermediate levels are widely spaced here so don't be surprised to see some serious movement to find either the upper or lower near term levels.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels