S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – June 26, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 9:30AMEST, 1:15PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2439, 10DMA 2437,  20DMA 2432, 50DMA 2401, 100DMA 2376, 200DMA 2286

These are key Fib Levels:  2459, 2429, 2410, 2399

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2410(intermediate minor), 2404(intermediate minor), 2383(intermediate), 2374 (intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2345(intermediate minor), 2326(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, June 26, 2017.

The overnight action has tracked both the red and magenta MSPs exceptionally well, and both point to weakness through the duration of the session which should be the theme for today.  Data is light on our first trading day of the week with only the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey at 10:30AMEST.

MSP

The technical side of things had us close right on the 5DEMA Friday and currently is set to gap above.  Sellers are going to need to show up in force to push price below the stack of 5DEMA, 10DMA, and 20DMA along with rising support.  The only thing that resides above currently is the Primary and Intermediate pivot markers at the all time high.  A sustained break above the current levels could lead to a runaway rally.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 19-23 of June

The market pulled the old “W” pattern last week, making a low on Monday, then bouncing back up to test the ATH (which it missed by 3 points), then moving in lower again to (barely) take out Monday’s low before bouncing once more. From an EWT standpoint this sideways action might be a wave 4, which means the bull count is still alive and well and still the favorite. That continues to be the case until the market will overlap the 2398-2402 area (depending on which high you consider the top of nested wave 1).

Same as for quite a while now, the weekly cycles do not show any significant change. However it is interesting to note some aspects. Namely, the mcm-MA on these cycles provided support several times when it was tested from above. Also, both YM and ES are in up impulses which are now firmly established so would normally need a regular unwind, with a bullish support (BR) and corresponding END resistance to dissipate the up energy.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are also in nested up impulses and recently broke yet again above resistance, breakout which would soon turn into another nested up impulse, unless the market reverses strongly. In fact YM will confirm in the next few days, as the mcm-MA is now crossing over resistance.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 12-16 of June

The market moved mostly sideways (with a light down bias) last week, before putting in some fireworks on Friday. The action on the last trading day of the week deserves more careful analysis, as the market made a new ATH at the opening of the session, but which was then strongly sold off with a 30+ points decline, before bouncing back in the last hour before the close. This type of action, with a strong and fast reversal after a new high would normally point to at least some kind of short-term top, corresponding to a 5th wave in EWT. Currently the bear (EWT) options are not obvious, and this apparent top might be very short lived and be overtaken soon, but it just might be something more. 2398 is the first level to watch for an overlap on the way down.

Weekly cycles didn’t change much, except the directionality line on YM also started to move up like we were expecting last week.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are still above the resistance levels, but didn’t significantly breakout just yet. As the market moved quite near them on the lows from Friday, this can qualify as a back-test, so what the market does next week will be important for the intermediate term also. If it holds the lows and bounces, then the breakout over resistances might become another up impulse. If the market breaks below the resistance levels, then it means the initial breakout was just an overshoot and more bearish resolutions are possible.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 5-9 of June

In the previous newsletter we were warning that the action had nothing bearish in it and the EWT more bullish scenarios were becoming favorite. The market followed through last week and pushed even higher.

Weekly cycles saw a slight change in that directionality on ES finally moved off its lowest level. YM didn’t do that just yet, but will likely follow unless the market turns soon.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles triggered new resistances, but the market managed to break above them. The breakout is not significant just yet and may prove to be just a spike. But the further the market moves, the more likely the breakout becomes. The resistance levels are still important to watch, in case the market moves lower since if the back-test holds, that would be dangerous for bears.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – June 2, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 11:00AMEST, 2:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2420, 10DMA 2413,  20DMA 2400, 50DMA 2378, 100DMA 2354, 200DMA 2269

These are key Fib Levels:  2459, 2429, 2411, 2400

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2410(intermediate minor), 2404(intermediate minor), 2383(intermediate), 2374 (intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2345(intermediate minor), 2326(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, June 2, 2017.

Happy Friday everyone!  With current price action odds favor a weak to flat day via the white MSP.  Data is light today with only the Baker Hughes Rig Count remaining at 1:00PMEST.

MSP

The technical picture took a turn in the favor of buyers yet again yesterday with a breakout over the broadening resistance which now resides in the 2425 area.  Basing on this area on a pullback is a clear warning that higher prices are coming and most likely in a runaway fashion.  On the flip side, a break of the rising support sets up a high probability of a retest of the next nearest intermediate minor level at 2410.  Good luck today and have a great weekend!

Primary and Intermediate Levels