MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 29 May -2 June

Last week saw the market push towards new highs. There was nothing bearish about the action, quite the opposite in fact, the market being able to push past resistances and into new ATHs. From an EWT stand-point the picture is becoming increasingly complicated. The more complex correction is still possible, albeit not favourite anymore. For this to happen the market would need to turn quite soon and avoid pushing significantly higher from here. The most obvious bullish scenario is for a nested wave up from the 2320 low, which would need the market to head higher in a steep manner (continuing the action of last week)

Weekly cycles are unchanged, with directionality still at the lowest level despite the bounce.  Once that moves, it would be a confirmation that the up move is really bullish.

Weekly Cycles

On the daily cycles we saw a support level trigger also on ES (following YM). The up impulses are continuing to unwind and the next resistance levels will be very important to watch for reaction, especially since it will be a 3rd END on ES, marking the completion of the impulse.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 22-26 of May

Last week saw the return of volatility to the market. After 2 days of consecutive new ATHs on Mon-Tue, the market saw a big down gap on Wed, which finished more than 40 points lower than the previous close. Next day we got a lower low, followed by a rebound which continued on Friday. Despite the more exciting action, we are still in the 2320-2400 chop zone, so the market is keeping its options open. From an EWT stand-point the more complex correction (started at the ATH from March 1st) scenario is gaining more weight because of the side-ways action. This would mean a flat is in the works, with wave A at the 2320 low and B either done at the recent ATH or needing a new minor high to finish. Then wave C down should follow with new lows (below 2320). Because of the overlap of 2370, the bullish scenario now became very bullish, because the only option still on the table is for a nested wave up (two series of 1-2 waves). This scenario is lower odds, though, at least at the moment because of the side-ways action.

Weekly cycles are unchanged, but directionality made it to the lowest level. That is not a bullish sign.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles held the test of resistances and moved lower and triggered some bullish signals at the lows. ES had 2 consecutive LRE (lower risk entries) for longs, while YM triggered a new support level. Those pointed up, but unless ES also triggers a new support level, it is still expected for the previous resistance to hold.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – May 8, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  9:30AMEST, 2:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2391, 10DMA 2389,  20DMA 2368, 50DMA 2366, 100DMA 2328, 200DMA 2248

These are key Fib Levels:  2418, 2402, 2389, 2387

These are key primary and intermediate: 2401(intermediate minor), 2379(intermediate minor), 2373 (intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor), 2322(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, May 8, 2017

The overnight price action appears to be favoring the cyan MSP at present, but keep an eye on the regular trading hours open where timing causes very dramatic outcomes between them.  Data is very light today with Labor Market Conditions at 10:00AMEST and TD Ameritrade IMX at 12:30PMEST.

MSP

As noted on the board Friday, the sustained trade above the declining resistance resulted into a buying spree going into the close.  The overnight saw a spike even higher but has since returned to roughly the closing levels of Friday's trading session.  Above the all time highs and greater than 2410 is the most likely target.  The broken declining resistance in conjunction with the stack of 5DEMA, and 10DMA should provide support for buyers on any decline.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

 

MSP

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 8-12 of May

The market moved sideways to lower in the first 4 trading days last week, with Friday bringing a stronger effort from the bull side with a push which came very narrowly close to the ATH. Our EWT scenario is playing out quite well and this looks (so far) like the 3 wave move off the important low at 2320ish. Currently 2 main scenarios are on the table: this is part of a more complex correction started at the ATH (a B wave of a flat, as mentioned in the previous newsletter), OR the correction ended at the 2320ish low and this is part of an impulsive move up. Once the current minor wave ends the next correction will give us a clue, 2370 would be the level to watch as the overlap (or not) would add weight to one or the other scenario.
No change for the weekly cycles. Directionality is still moving lower and it almost made it to the lowest level.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are now directly testing the resistance levels (the 2nd END on ES and the 1st END on YM). As mentioned in the previous newsletter, a minor new high is not excluded, however the normal expectation would be for the resistance levels to hold, which would fit better with the flat EWT scenario mentioned.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – May 4, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 8:30AMEST, 10:30AMEST, 2:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2387, 10DMA 2381,  20DMA 2364, 50DMA 2364, 100DMA 2325, 200DMA 2245

These are key Fib Levels:  2402, 2196, 2379

These are key primary and intermediate: 2401(intermediate minor), 2379(intermediate minor), 2373 (intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor), 2322(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Thursday, May 4, 2017

Present price action is favoring the magenta MSP which would indicate weakness from the 8:30AMEST timing through the opening bell and then a positive bias the remainder of the day.  Data is abundant with International Trade, Jobless Claims, Productivity and Costs, and the Gallup Good Jobs Rate at 8:30AMEST, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index at 9:45AMEST, Factory Orders at 10:00AMEST, and lastly the EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30AMEST.

MSP

As surmised by yesterday's update, the break of near term rising support produced a break down towards the lower intermediate minor level of 2373, but was arrested by the 10DMA.  Current price is set to open near the declining resistance level just overhead which will serve as a warning for sellers if trade is sustained above that and/or successfully backtested on a break above.  The long standing 2379 fib level was nearly tested at yesterday's lows which serves two roles going forward.  Either the failure to test the level translates to an extremely strong move higher as the correction was truncated, or the correction still requires more time and price depreciation.  Good luck today and keep an eye on premarket price action with timing and the data dump at 8:30AMEST.

Primary and Intermediate Levels

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – May 3, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: N/A

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2386, 10DMA 2378,  20DMA 2362, 50DMA 2364, 100DMA 2323, 200DMA 2244

These are key Fib Levels:  2402, 2196, 2379

These are key primary and intermediate: 2401(intermediate minor), 2379(intermediate minor), 2373 (intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor), 2322(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, May 3, 2017

We have a reasonable amount of economic data to hit the tape today with the ADP Employment Report at 8:15AMEST, Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index at 8:30AMEST, PMI Services Index at 9:45AMEST, ISM Non Manufacturing Index at 10:00AMEST, EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30AMEST, and lastly the all important FOMC Meeting Announcement at 2:00PMEST.  The technical picture saw us test and bounce off of both the broadening and rising support near the close of business yesterday and close above the 5DEMA.  A break of rising support will likely see us go down and visit the 10DMA and the 2373 intermediate minor level before finding more significant support.  Until the rising trendline is broken and trade sustains below though, buyers have control.  Good luck today and be careful around 2:00PMEST if you have any open positions.

Primary and Intermediate Levels