MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the 1st Week of May

The market continued to move higher last week and did so more convincingly than the previous week. It opened on Monday with a gap up of more than 20 points and Tuesday saw another opening gap up, this time smaller (around 7 points). The high of the week came very close to the ATH, before the market retreated a bit in the last 2 trading sessions. Our preferred EWT scenario (bullish) played out, despite the initial chop which had us question the validity of this (presumed) 3rd wave. Now it looks like this wave up might need another high before finishing and the coming correction from there will be telling to see if this is indeed a bullish impulse up or not. As it looks right now and in accordance with our thoughts from the previous newsletter this doesn’t look like a “real” 3rd wave up, which has us thinking it might be part of a more complex correction which started at the ATH (potentially a B wave of a flat). But we will burn that bridge once we come to it.
Weekly cycles did not trigger any new signals. Directionality is still moving lower which is a sign that it is not time to sound the all clear for the bulls just yet.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles continue to unwind the up impulses. ES triggered a 2nd END resistance, while YM also triggered an END resistance level. This is a sign that the upward energy of these impulses is dissipating. Considering that this is already a nested up impulse (an impulse following another impulse), it is unlikely that the market will have enough strength to break above these resistances and create another nested impulse. That being said, a marginal new high is not excluded, but we do not expect the resistance levels to be broken above significantly.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the Week 24 – 28 Apr

The market moved higher during the past week, ending around 20 points higher on a weekly basis. The low at 2320 held (despite being tested in the overnight on Monday), so our EWT preferred scenario (bullish) played out. However the move from lows was very choppy and does not resemble a 3rd wave, which our bullish scenario would point to. So it is time to re-assess since it seems this wave sequence is turning into something more complex. If someone played a long off the lows here is time to book some profits, and wait to “see more cards”, as they say in poker. The market will give us some more clues into its intentions by how the next few sessions will play out.
Not surprisingly there is no significant change on the weekly cycles. The mcm-MA test did provide support again, as pointed to last week, while directionality is continues to move lower.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles had again a very nice signal. ES triggered a 2nd bullish retrace (BR) support after the END resistance higher. This support was respected, as the market was testing the BR support also on YM, and the market bounced. The next resistance will be a 2nd END on ES and will likely be strong if YM also triggers.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter for Week 17-21 Apr

After moving sideways 2 weeks ago, the holiday shortened week brought a clearer direction, which was down. The market was weak in all 4 trading days and finished at the lows on Thursday. The short term EWT scenario we kept referencing is very close to a resolution now. The low close to 2320 is all important and the separation line between the bullish and the (very) bearish scenario. It did not get taken out yet, so the bullish scenario is still preferred. However the market came quite close and is still too close for comfort for the bulls. Which is why Monday is likely to bring a resolution, one way or the other. Both scenarios point to a strong next move, so the action from here will likely affect the intermediate term trend.
No big change on the weekly cycles. ES is now testing the mcm-MA again and will be interesting to see if this will provide support again. Directionality continues to move lower.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles saw an interesting development last week. ES triggered already an END resistance, which had shifted the expectation down once it confirmed. YM did not trigger one yet, so the support on daily YM is still valid. Directionality is still stuck at the minimum level, and is getting a bit long in the tooth for a bounce.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – April 10, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 11:00AMEST, 1:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2355, 10DMA 2358,  20DMA 2359, 50DMA 2348, 100DMA 2299, 200DMA 2226

These are key Fib Levels:  2392, 2341

These are key primary and intermediate: 2401(intermediate minor), 2386(intermediate minor), 2354 (intermediate minor), 2275(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, April 10, 2017

With white and cyan as the most probable MSP's through the overnight session, it will be important to see what 11:00AMEST timing has to discern between the two which equates to patience for the first portion of the session.  With only the Labor Market Conditions Index at 10:00AMEST, and TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index at 12:30PMEST, data shouldn't pose much of a influence on price action today.

MSP

The intermediate level at 2354 continues to act as a magnet for price as we whipsaw the shorter term DMAs over and over again.  As a reminder, we still have yet to put in an cyan intermediate pivot marker at the most recent lows so sellers still have the overall bias in their favor until that takes place.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the Week 10 – 14 Apr

The market didn’t do much of anything last week, probably trying to prove that sideways is also a direction. We did get a higher high vs the previous week on Wednesday, but still finished the week lower. No change in our EWT (short term) scenarios - we still have a 3 wave correction from the ATH and the current bounce overlapped the 1st wave low, so the current move should continue to new ATHs, unless the bears turn this into a nested move down. The low close to 2320 is the level to beat for bears, while overlapping 2390 would more or less guarantee the bulls that new ATHs are coming.

No change on the weekly cycles. Directionality continues to move lower.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles have the bullish retrace (BR) supports in place which have held the decline so far. Directionality is still stuck at the minimum level, so once it bounces we would be on the look-out for an END resistance higher.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the Week 3 – 7 Apr

The last week of March saw the bulls come back from being a bit on the run the week before. Monday saw the market make a new low and spiked below the 50 day MA. However the bulls quickly recovered and not only did they win back the 50 day MA on an intra-day basis but the market rallied the next 3 trading sessions. Only Friday saw the bulls give back a bit. Continuing our EWT (short) analysis, the larger 3 wave correction we were mentioning got the new lows and then rallied, as warned. The rally overlapped the 1st wave low, so unless the bears turn this into a nested move down, the current move should continue to new ATHs.

No real change on the weekly cycles, but an interesting fact - the mcm-MA provided support, just as it did on the daily when it was first tested. Directionality continues it’s move down and would be interesting to see how it behaves going forward.

Weekly Cycles

An important development on the daily cycles: a bullish retrace (BR) support triggered at Monday’s low, adding weight to the assumption that the said low is important. Normally an END resistance higher is expected but for where that might show up we need to take a look at the shorter term cycles.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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