MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the Week 27 – 31 Mar

Last week provided the most interesting week in quite a while. For the EWT fans, the classical 3 wave bounce we were mentioning last week proved to be exactly what it seemed. And the market proceeded to resume the main trend (down) with conviction. Tuesday’s drop was impressive with 40 points between top and bottom and the market closing near the lows. Continuing with the EWT interpretations, bigger picture, the decline off the ATH looks like a 3 waver. The 3 wave bounce mentioned before being the B wave of this larger A-B-C correction. The C wave doesn’t look done, so new lows are likely, however from there it is possible that the market rallies again strongly and makes new ATHs if the decline off the ATH is just a 3 wave correction. No way to tell that now, although where the current wave down will finish will provide a good clue.

Due to the strong decline, the weekly cycles had their directionality begin to move down, in a sign that the correction is something more than just a small dent in the up trend. No other signals so far, but we are on the lookout for a potential bullish retrace (BR) support which could trigger.

Weekly Cycles

Same story on the daily cycles. No bullish retrace (BR) support just yet, but directionality is more advanced than on the weekly, having hit its lowest level already and staying there. The initial move of directionality on the daily was a nice signal showing that the decline was not done with the 1st wave down off the ATH.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – March 22, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 10:00AMEST, 1:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2363, 10DMA 2368,  20DMA 2370, 50DMA 2332, 100DMA 2276, 200DMA 2211

These are key Fib Levels: 2371, 2366, 2326, 2315

These are key primary and intermediate: 2401(intermediate minor), 2381(intermediate minor), 2355 (intermediate minor), 2275(intermediate minor), 2254(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, March 22, 2017

Good morning everyone.  Currently the red and magenta MSPs are tracking the best through the overnight so look for choppy marginally upward biased price action on the day.  Data is light again today with the FHFA House Price Index at 9:00AMEST, Existing Home Sales at 10:00AMEST, and the EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30AMEST.

MSP

The technical picture saw us put in our first 1% down move for 2017 ripping through the shorter timeframe DMAs and the intermediate minor level at 2355.  We currently sit at symmetry for the move down from the all time high with the first leg being 1.9% and this current leg being 2% as marked by the cyan intermediate pivot markers.  This current leg is searching for a bottom denoted by that same cyan pivot marker, so sellers need to be careful.  This fact coupled with both systems taking long trades at the close yesterday gives decent probabilities to a bounce of some kind in the very near future.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the Week 20 – 24 Mar

The market finished a rather uneventful week, despite the FED raising rates. Wednesday provided the most interesting session, having finished 20 points above Tuesday’s close. The last 2 days saw the market retreating though. From an EWT perspective, the bounce off the low from 3/9 looks like a classical 3 wave correction so far. The next few sessions will be important to see if this is what it seems or not.

Considering the lack of major swings, the weekly cycles show no important development. The picture is still bullish, although a bigger correction to a bullish retrace (BR) support would also be possible. Directionality is still stuck at the highest level, adding to the bullish picture.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles show more or less the same picture, although here directionality did move lower and is now close to its minimum. From a cycle structure perspective, the same is valid as for the weekly. They are in impulses up, so the picture is bullish, but a bigger correction to a BR support would be possible also. If that happens that BR would most likely be a buying opportunity.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – March 13, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: N/A

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2368, 10DMA 2371,  20DMA 2359, 50DMA 2309, 100DMA 2250, 200DMA 2196

These are key Fib Levels: 2388, 2384, 2358

These are key primary and intermediate: 2401(intermediate minor), 2359 (intermediate minor), 2275(intermediate minor), 2254(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, March 13, 2017

Good morning everyone.  We have a super light data load this morning with only the Labor Market Conditions Index at 10:00AMEST.  With the markets successful backtest of broken resistance we should see a larger retrace of the drop from the all time high if not having that level exceeded.  The current challenge for buyers is regaining the 10DEMA and then after that the important area between 2384 and 2388 will be the next potential turn area.  We have also established two new intermediate minor levels at the all time high and below at 2359 near last weeks pivot low level.  With that, price has areas of interest both above and below current levels that has the potential to define a continued trading range and choppiness.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the Week 13 – 17 Mar

The action seemed to change ever since the market hit the round numbers 2 weeks ago. The market made lower lows in 4 out of 5 trading days last week. Friday saw a bounce coming, but that bounce proved weak, ending with a cross type of daily candle (close equals the open, despite the intra-day swings. Usually points to a change of trend, or indecision).

The weekly cycles saw finally a clearer retrace and “dent” in the up move. The up impulses are still fully ongoing, so the picture is still bullish.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles show more clear where the decline stopped. The mcm-MA managed to provide support yet again - it did so several times in the past, so at least for now, the picture is still bullish. No new signal, except the fact that the directionality tool moved down, being the first bearish sign in a while.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

MCM Newsletter for week 6-10 March

Last week was another one for the history books. The last 2 days of February seem uneventful in retrospect, although the market did make a new ATH on Monday before moving side-ways to lower afterwards. But March started with a bang. 15+ SPX points gap up and besting the 2400 level, which was almost 40 points higher than Tuesday’s close. Very impressive. However the round number proved to be not so lucky, as the next day we got an almost identically sized candle in the opposite direction. Friday saw the market making another low, before recovering to finish just above the close on Thursday.
The weekly cycles did not register any significant change as a result of this action. YM just confirmed the up impulse with the mcm-MA directly slicing the resistance level. ES is in an established up impulse. Interestingly the directionality tool is still at its maximum level, so that would provide a clue is the decline is more than a short-term correction, in case it moves lower.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are perfectly aligned with the weekly. Up impulses, directionality pegged at the highest level. They are likely to move before the weekly, which would be an early warning.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.