mcm Newsletter – Outlook for Week 30 Jan – 3 Feb

The market finally broke the side-ways movement last week and moved decisively higher. Both ES and YM made new ATHs, ES breaking 2300 and YM 20.000.
As a result, on the weekly cycles both ES and YM moved above their resistance levels. ES is starting to look like an attempted break-out, while YM only briefly spiked above. Next week looks to be important because if the market continues to move higher, the break-out on ES above the resistance level might be confirmed. Which would be full-on bullish.

Weekly Cycles

ES and YM are in even more different situations on the daily cycles. ES broke also here above it's resistance level. However YM bounced off its bullish retrace (BR) support but didn't trigger a resistance yet. Once it will, that would mark the last stand for bears and likely a good chance to turn things around. If they cannot and we get impulses up on weekly and daily, then it's likely the market will go a lot higher.  The directionality tool started to bounce from the lowest level which is a sign that the market is trying to push higher.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the Week 23-27 January

The market continued to move side-ways in the holiday shortened last week, the 4 trading days being mostly non-eventful with choppy moves inside a rather tight range.
Considering the side-ways movement, no surprise that there is no change on the weekly cycles. YM is still below its resistance level, while ES is above but still in close range.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles had again important developments. ES triggered an END resistance marking potentially the unwind of the up impulse. While YM triggered a bullish retrace (BR) support. These are mixed signals, in that the ES resistance normally would point to a down move, while the YM support would point to a bounce until a corresponding END is triggered. Usually that means choppy moves ahead, until the market makes up its mind which way to go. Regardless of what happens, the levels triggered are important to watch as a break-out of one or the other would be a strong message. The directionality tool is still stuck at its lowest level and provide a good clue if it moves (or if it doesn’t move and we get a bounce).

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – January 17, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 8:30AMEST, 10:30AMEST, 1:45PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2272, 10DMA 2271,  20DMA 2264,  50DMA 2228, 100DMA 2188, 200DMA 2150

These are key Fib Levels: 2302, 2184, 2152

These are key primary and intermediate: 2275(intermediate minor), 2254(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, January 17, 2017

The continuous decline throughout the overnight suggests either white or cyan for today's MSP so be mindful of any attempt to bottom around 8:30AMEST.  Data is very light today with only the Empire State Manufacturing Survey at 8:30AMEST.

MSP

Nothing bearish about the technical picture, at best we'll call it a consolidation with what appears to be a lower high in place, but not lower swing low.  We have yet to be able to sustain trade under the 5DEMA so momentum still favors buyers at present.  A positive for the sellers is the Primary and Intermediate markers at the all time high which suggests this run is wearing itself out and will be due a more sizeable pullback soon.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the Week 16-20 January

After the new ATHs from 2 weeks ago, the market moved mostly sideways during last week, in a choppy move that looks more like a correction/consolidation than a change of trend.
As the market didn’t move much in terms of points, there is no change on the weekly cycle. YM is still respecting its resistance level, while ES spiked above but didn’t break out. The directionality tool is becoming thick which likely anticipates a turn (lower in our case), but that can still take a while.

Weekly Cycles

On the daily cycles we had a rather interesting development. Both YM and ES are in up impulses and held the initial decline. And ES painted a bullish retrace (BR) support in a sign that the up impulses is unwinding. That points up, until a corresponding END resistance shows up. Directionality is still stuck at the lowest level which is not supportive for a sustained up move.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – January 11, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 11:00AMEST, 1:15PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2270, 10DMA 2261,  20DMA 2262,  50DMA 2211, 100DMA 2183, 200DMA 2144

These are key Fib Levels:  2162, 2152, 2175

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2278(intermediate minor), 2254(intermediate minor), 2214(intermediate minor), 2189(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, January 11,  2016

Price action in the overnight has been very choppy, so a preferred MSP has been very difficult to discern.  Timing at 11:00AMEST will be key in the vetting process to see what type of bias will remain for the trading session.  Another light day on the data front with Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations at 10:00AMEST, and EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30AMEST.

MSP

The technical side of the house still has us bouncing between the stacked moving averages, 5DEMA, 10DMA, 20DMA.  Basic assertion is a consolidation area here for buyers until one of the previous pivots are broken on the rise up from the previous intermediate minor level at 2234, that pivot being at 2260.  Good luck today and profitable trading!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

 

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – January 10, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 10:30AMEST, 2:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2270, 10DMA 2261,  20DMA 2262,  50DMA 2211, 100DMA 2183, 200DMA 2144

These are key Fib Levels:  2275, 2277

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2278(intermediate minor), 2254(intermediate minor), 2214(intermediate minor), 2189(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, January 10,  2016

7:00AMEST timing marked a high via MSP which leaves a number of options available.  10:30AMEST will be key in discerning which MSP is most likely for the remainder of the day, however, weakness seems to be the general theme till later this afternoon on a whole.   At 10:00AMEST we have the JOLTS release with Wholesale Trade.

MSP

On the technical side of things we broke down out of our rising wedge and successfully backetested it then found shelf support just below.  It would not be surprising to see a poke under to test the stacked moving averages and then reverse back up for a larger retracement of the decline.  Below the averages and things get rather thin until we find the remaining gap opening between 2245 and 2249 with potentially a brief stop at the intermediate minor level at 2254.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the Week 9-13 January

The holiday shortened first week of 2017 had a strong bullish bias. The market advanced in almost all trading sessions and finished by making new all time highs on Friday.
The market’s move, although seemingly impressive, did little to change the big picture. Partly because YM had under performed relatively to ES. And on the weekly cycle, YM is now overlapping its resistance level, while ES managed to spike above once again. The normal expectation for downside has not changed, but will do so in case the move above the resistance levels is sustained.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are in up impulses and held the initial decline (which stopped exactly at the mcm-MA on ES). It is interesting that the directionality is still stuck at the lowest level. That is a sign that the up move is not sustained just yet, so if it starts to move up, that would mean the bounce might have more to go.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the 1st Week of 2017

Happy New Year!
The market action in the last week of 2016 was on the bearish side. After attempting to continue the pre-Christmas bounce when the market reopened on Tuesday, the market declined on all remaining trading days for an almost 40 points decline from Tuesday’s high to Friday’s low. The pattern of higher lows and lower highs which we were noticing a while back was broken to the downside.
The market’s decline was enough to finally trigger a resistance level on the weekly YM cycle. That is a big deal and an important line in the sand going forward. The normal expectation is for downside from here, especially since ES also came back below its previously triggered resistance which was a bit whipsawed at first.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are in up impulses, however the directionality tool turned down and made it to the lowest level. Watching for a bearish retrace (BR) support to trigger and the market’s reaction to that would be important. If the market continues its decline it will be also important to see how it behaves when ES will back-test the break-out level at 2212.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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