S&P500 Expert Lounge Update –November 30, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 1:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2207, 10DMA 2200,  20DMA 2173,  50DMA 2156, 100DMA 2162, 200DMA 2113

These are key Fib Levels:  2213.5

These are key primary and intermediate 2194(intermediate minor), 2177 (intermediate minor), 2157 (intermediate minor), 2144 (intermediate minor),

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, November 30, 2016

With both magenta and red MSP's the most probable based off present price action look for a moderately positive bias coupled with a healthy dose of chop for today.  The last hour will be the deciding factor as to which ultimately plays out where red falls off rather dramatically.  We also have a rather full economic data set today with the MBA Mortgage Index at 7:00AMEST, ADP Employment Change at 8:15AMEST, Personal Income, Personal Spending, Core PCE Price Index at 8:30AMEST, Chicago PMI at 9:45AMEST, Pending Home Sales at 10:00AMEST, Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30AMEST, and the Fed Beige Book at 2:00PMEST.  Also tucked in amongst all this is the announcement from the OPEC and others on a production agreement around the 11:00AMEST hour.

2016-11-30_3-49-06_intradayMSP

MSP

The technical picture hasn't changed that much since yesterday.  Momentum is still in the buyers favor while we maintain the 5DEMA, but the price action is becoming sloppy around it which hints that the upward trend is weakening.  2194 intermediate minor level remains the first area of interest on any decline with the 10DEMA and rising support also residing in that general vicinity as we push deeper into our timing turn zone.  Good luck today.

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 28 Nov – 2 Dec

2 words can easily characterize the action of the past week: grind higher. The cash market was only opened 4 trading sessions or better said 3 and a half, but managed to score new ATHs in 3 of those days. Less impressive was the actual movement in terms of points, being only around 20 points above the high registered in the previous week. Will this prove to be the proverbial calm before the storm?
Nothing new to report on the weekly cycles. Still looking for a resistance to trigger which will likely point the turn. But still no clear sign about when one might trigger.

Weekly Cycles

Weekly Cycles

The resistance triggered on YM on the daily cycles failed to stop the advance. The market broke through so it remains to be seen if the resistance on ES (once it triggers) will be more respected. The directionality tool is still at the maximum point and it will be important to see when it will turn lower, as confirmation of a likely turn.

Daily Cycles

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles are full-on    
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Technical Lab Update For the Week Of November 20

Good evening everyone,

Another week in the books for 2016 albeit a quiet one relative to election week.  The preferred ending diagonal count that we've been tracking has came into contact with the last remaining declining resistance in this past weeks price action and continued to press on it into Friday's close.  The week of Thanksgiving is historically a positive week with 65% odds of a higher close than open since 1950.  This fits with the long term MSP expectations as well as DJIA seasonality.

SPX

SPX

This week also produced a rather rare triple inside daily pattern on the DJIA.  These patterns lend themselves to a rather dramatic move upon completion, and while seasonality and MSP favor a positive bias, expectations are for this pattern to complete itself with an upward thrust.

dji

DJIA

Move evidence of this is apparent in the Election Year chart for seasonality where there is one last solid push higher into the last week of the month, and there is also one for the overall average chart but it is pushed forward in time by about a week and a half.  While expectations are for higher prices, we are getting near enough the turn zone to warrant some caution and to begin to look for signs of a turn.  Good luck this week and happy Thanksgiving.

DJIA Seasonality

DJIA Seasonality

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 14 – 18 Nov

What a week! It’s hard to keep the exclamations away in a week that saw an intra-day drop of more than ES 100 points to reach a limit down suspension and then a full reversal to come back, open the cash session only slightly in the red and keep rallying to close the day green. It was a Brexit type event, except it was faster. After Brexit we had a big drop, a dead-cat bounce and then the next day the markets made a new low. Now we never got that. Market bottomed in the overnight and then never looked back. People who were short in cash instruments must’ve had a really bad day, seeing the market 100+ ES points down and then opening nearly flat. Which proves once again that a large part of the action has moved outside the regular trading hours. The mcm tools caught the bottom quite nicely, signaling the exact low with a sell X Xtick on v-tick tools and then despite what looked like (and was) a huge bounce, it never triggered a buy Xtreme until the RTH started.
But as always the big question is what now. The weekly cycles put in a very large candle, with a LRE (lower risk entry) for longs at the bottom of it. Both ES and YM spiked below support, but recovered it and we are now looking for resistances to trigger higher. Once that happens, that would be a strong sign that another correction is coming. ES is still in an up impulse which would likely be over once an END resistance triggers. So reaction in the opposite direction could be strong.

Weekly Cycles

Weekly Cycles

Zooming in to the daily cycles, these also spiked below supports and then recovered them strongly. So we have the the same expectation as for the weekly - watching for a resistance level to trigger. We did get some LRE (lower risk entries) for shorts, however the mcm-MA just recently changed bearish (red color) and we can see from such past events that in this case, the LREs are not very reliable. The directionality tool is moving upward and has been doing so for a while, actually since before the “Trump-win” Brexit like event. It will be important to see when it peaks and starts moving down.

Daily Cycles

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles both    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 21 – 25 Nov

Compared to the election week Brexit type event, last week saw things calming down. Although the intra-day swings in ES were 20+ points in the first 2 trading days and then 15 points in the last 3, that felt like no volatility at all. The market managed to continue to grind higher although the high from the election week was barely overtaken by 5 points.
Considering the absence of major swings, it is no wonder that the weekly cycles saw no major developments. The directionality tool finally bounced from it’s minimum level confirming the ongoing bounce. As previously stated, the cycles now need resistances to come up which would be a strong signal that the bounce is coming to an end. Of course, to anticipate where these might trigger we have to look at the shorter timeframe cycles.

Weekly Cycles

Weekly Cycles

Zooming in to the daily cycles, these also spiked below supports and then recovered them strongly. So we have the the same expectation as for the weekly - watching for a resistance level to trigger. We did get some LRE (lower risk entries) for shorts, however the mcm-MA just recently changed bearish (red color) and we can see from such past events that in this case, the LREs are not very reliable. The directionality tool is moving upward and has been doing so for a while, actually since before the “Trump-win” Brexit like event. It will be important to see when it peaks and starts moving down.

Daily Cycles

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles show    
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mcm Market Update for Week 44

The action over the past week was decisively bearish. The market continued the downside movement started 2 weeks ago and declined in all 5 trading sessions reaching a 70 points decline in 2 weeks and more than 100 points lower vs. the August and early September peak. Continuing the bearish signs, the market broke decisively below the trend line connecting the last significant lows (the one from February and the one from June). But of course, the real question is: what now? Will the market continue lower or is a bounce in the cards?

Looking at the cycles, we can see the same bearish signs: the weekly support level on ES was broken, despite it having higher odds of holding. YM also broke its support, albeit only marginally (shown on chart). The directionality tool did provide a nice warning that the bounce after the initial decline was not going to hold, by continuing to move lower throughout it. It is currently at the minimum value and if a more significant bounce is coming, it will start moving up. We also have a LRE (lower risk entry) for longs on YM and as we can see in the past (highlighted on chart) these have the potential to trigger a big bounce. A 2nd consecutive one triggering next week will definitely be something to watch for.

Weekly Cycles

Weekly Cycles

As we were mentioning last week, the daily cycles were bearishly inclined and the market delivered just that. YM was in a confirmed impulse down and it had triggered a 2nd bearish retrace (BR) resistance level which normally needed a 2nd END support lower. The market moved decisively lower, so now we are on the look-out for a support level to trigger. ES also triggered (late) a resistance just above the previous support and then a new support lower, which was slightly broken. Going forward it will be important to see when a support level will trigger on YM. That would be a big warning that the decline is at least pausing for a while.

Daily Cycles

Daily Cycles

Revisiting our potential Elliott Wave ending diagonal on the NYSE Composite from previous updates, it is very obvious that we've broken the rising wedge pattern and have begun to sell off.  This brings in a demarcation point where the diagonal structure becomes invalid because in a contracting ending diagonal, wave 2 must remain shorter than wave 4.  We've marked that level where that is no longer the case and at which point we can begin looking for much lower prices as the next viable structure would bottom in the 9600 to 9500 area.  Futures are markedly green at present so a challenge of the upper area of the declining wedging pattern is a relatively good probability at this point.  Good luck this week.

NYSE Composite

NYSE Composite

Technical Lab Update For The Week Of November 6, 2016

While price appears to have departed from historical seasonal, which is understandable considering this election year can be categorized as anything but normal, we'll focus on some levels to be mindful of on the SPX chart.  Twice on Friday price challenged the 2086 Primary Intermediate Level which provided support and price was also rejected at the high of day by the Intermediate Minor Level at 2099.  With the 200DMA and two Primary Intermediate Levels residing in the 2086 to 2073 zone it is to be expected that this area will be substantially supportive barring a gap open on the underside of 2073.  In this gap scenario 2058/59, but more likely 2040 will want to be tested before a bounce back up towards the 200DMA and the underside of 2073.  HAL and RVS still have reasonably sized long positions on and with the confluence of technical and MCM related support just underneath, a price recovery of reasonable magnitude would not be surprising from this general area.

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Now that we've progressed deep enough into the proposed diagonal pattern we can focus on another aspect that will eliminate it as an option and put the expanded flat firmly on the table.  In an Elliott Wave contracting diagonal the fourth wave must remain shorter than the second wave for the structure to remain valid.  In this case the 2064 level would be that demarcation point.  From there we could focus solely on the lower levels before any sort of bottoming expectations were to take place.  Good luck trading this week and mind mid week for election results because it could make for a bumpy ride.  Trade safe.

SPX