S&P500 Expert Lounge Update –August 31, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2175, 10DMA 2179, 20DMA 2180, 50DMA 2150

These are key Fib Levels:  2172, 2169, 2156

These are key primary and intermediate levels:  2180(minor), 2155(minor), 2148(minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, August 31, 2016

We have a few data points on tap today, but we may run into some consolidation as a function of the holiday weekend coming up along with the NFP release on Friday.  8:15AMEST is the ADP Employment Report, 9:45AMEST we have the Chicago PMI with Pending Home Sales at 10:00AMEST, and lastly there is the EIA Petroleum Status at 10:30AMEST.  Intraday MSP is hinting at a weak first portion of the session followed by afternoon strength.  60min Cycles put in a Bearish Retrace during the overnight session and there is also a new support cycle at yesterday's lows via the 288 chart.  This will be the defined range to be mindful of in the near term.  Good luck today.

MSP

MSP

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels

 

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update –August 30, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 9:30AMEST, 2:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2176, 10DMA 2180, 20DMA 2179, 50DMA 2149

These are key Fib Levels:  2172, 2169, 2156

These are key primary and intermediate levels:  2180(minor), 2155(minor), 2148(minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, August 30, 2016

HAL and RVS went flat at yesterday's close which eliminates the positive bias that was in place as a result of the systems trades.  Meandering price action in the overnight currently has us at a near flat open.  We have a few data points to contend with today with the Redbook at 8:55AMEST, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index at 9:00AMEST, and the Consumer Confidence and State Street Investor Confidence at 10:00AMEST.  Economic releases bracket market timing at the opening of regular trading hours so be on the mindful of initial choppiness in any current open positions.  With a generation of a 3rd End on the 480 coupled with a new resistance cycle on the 288 yesterday's highs become a crucial pivot going forward especially taking into consideration the bearish LRE's that have triggered on multiple time frames in this general vicinity.  Good luck today and trade safe.

MSP

MSP

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update –August 29, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 9:30AMEST, 12:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2176, 10DMA 2179, 20DMA 2178, 50DMA 2147

These are key Fib Levels:  2179, 2186

These are key primary and intermediate levels:  2180(minor), 2155(minor), 2148(minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, August 29, 2016

The only noteworthy data point for this groggy Monday morning is The Dallas Manufacturing Survey at 10:30AMEST.  HAL and RVS both took longs into the close Friday which automatically makes the bias on the day skewed to a more positive one as long as they hold contracts.  On the Levels chart we are sitting in a void right now so some range racing within here is to be expected as support and resistance will be thin.  Cycle wise we have a new Bearish Retrace on the 60min chart near the overnight highs which will be important to keep an eye on to see if price can sustain trade above that.  Longer term picture has some conflicting data points with Bullish LRE's on the YM daily chart and bearish LRE's on the 288 and 480 charts.  Sufficient to say that until price can sustain trade above or below either of these that we've found a new trading range.  Trade safe and happy hunting.

 

MSP

MSP

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels

 

Technical Laboratory Update For The Week Of August 28, 2016

Hopefully everyone had a good weekend.   Long term MSP has a bit of a September curve ball which departs from presidential cycle seasonality, but the one thing to be mindful of is that MSP is not a magnitude type instrument.  It shows a general bias.  Which is to say, although the chart shows what appears to be another rally leg to new all time highs, that does not need to transpire.  A marginally upward/sideways week would satisfy that portion of the MSP just the same.

Long Term MSP

Long Term MSP

Overall on the week, while retesting the all time highs again we've continued on the drawn out downward preferred Elliott Wave ending diagonal/rising wedge magenta path.  While the shorter term has thrown a number of whipsaws, Friday's being the most recent courtesy of Mrs. Yellen, the market has behaved quite well from an intermediate term perspective.

SPX Intermediat Term

SPX Intermediat Term

VIX, while at historically low levels, has begun to show some life.  Considering where timing has us within the next two months and seasonal precedence for weakness until November.  Expectations of a run to $20, most likely before the end of October based the other previously mentioned items seems very reasonable.  Until something is seen in the internals to negate the mounting evidence, being a patient and cautious buyer appears to be the most prudent course of action at present.

vix

Historical VIX Chart

In conclusion, all the evidence compiled at the beginning of August still holds validity and continues to point to weakness over the next couple of months with the exception of the one spike in longer term MSP starting in the middle of the second week of September.  Good luck this week and see you in the Lounge.

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 29 Aug – 2 Sep

Executive Summary:
Main Trend (weekly): up
Intermediate Trend (daily): up
Short-Term Trend (480&288min): up/neutral

Details:
On the weekly cycles ES confirmed the up impulse, by breaking above the resistance level and having also the mcm-MA crossing over. That means that the main trend is up, at least for ES. As we were noting earlier, YM is underperforming on that aspect quite significantly since because of the bigger correction registered, it still has a few weeks to go before confirming the up impulse. Going forward, the fact that both indexes are above their resistance levels, with ES in a confirmed up impulse is a serious warning for the ones holding short positions. Once an up impulse is confirmed, it is usual for the market to back-test the break-out level and in our case, that back-test becomes very important to see if the market can sustain the up impulse or not.

Weekly Cycles

Weekly Cycles

On the daily cycles, the up impulses triggered quite long ago are in the unwinding (or dissipation) phase. YM already put in a 3rd END resistance, meaning the up impulse finished the unwind and the index is now in a normal oscillation. ES is in a slightly different position since it only had a 2nd END resistance and could have another unwind with a new support and a 3rd END resistance. There is not much change vs what we were mentioning last week, except the fact that the market did come back down and is now right on the 2nd END resistance level on ES. What happens next is key since if the market comes back below it, a new support level could be triggered, looking for a corresponding 3rd END resistance higher. If the market manages to hold above and break into a nested impulse, that would be a sign a bigger up move is coming.

Daily Cycles

Daily Cycles

480 and 288min cycles show nicely the flatish structure in which the market held, despite some minor new highs. 288 finished the unwind of the up impulse with a 3rd END and is now oscillating, having had already a support level trigger. 480 has had the 3rd bullish retrace support (BR) and now needs a corresponding 3rd END resistance higher. Reaction to that 3rd END is expected to be significant.

288&480min Cycles

288&480min Cycles

In conclusion, we have a confirmed up impulse on ES on the weekly chart which points to more upside. However the daily and also the 288/480min cycles are in terminal phases of the up impulses. That structure contradicts with a fresh up impulse on the weekly unless the market manages to break into nested impulses on those time-frames. The next 1-2 weeks appear to be key in regards to which scenario will play out.

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update –August 26, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 6:30AMEST, 12:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2179, 10DMA 2182, 20DMA 2178, 50DMA 2145

These are key Fib Levels:  2168

These are key primary and intermediate levels:  2180(minor), 2155(minor), 2148(minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, August 26,  2016

We have a jam packed morning full of data with GDP, Corporate Profits, and  International Trade at 8:30AMEST.  After that we have Consumer Sentiment at 10:00AMEST, and one Mrs. Janet B. Yellen that speaks at 10:00AMEST as well, so be on guard.  Overnight session has been listlessly chopping about with no real sense of purpose in anticipation of either the data or Mrs. Yellen.  The 288 and 480 cycle support which held the lows again yesterday remains highly important.  We got a Bearish retrace in the overnight session, so a retest of the 288 and 480 cycles are at decent odds today. Good luck today and have a great weekend!

MSP

MSP

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update –August 25, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 10:30AMEST, 1:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2180, 10DMA 2182, 20DMA 2178, 50DMA 2143

These are key Fib Levels:  2168

These are key primary and intermediate levels:  2180(minor), 2155(minor), 2148(minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Thursday, August 25,  2016

This morning has a couple of big data numbers coming out which could result in some market movement at 8:30AMEST with Jobless Claims and Durable Goods Orders.  Overnight has carved out a range inside of the last 30 minutes of yesterday's regular trading hours.  The 5 and 15 minute cycles are winding down their impulse waves and the 135 has a support cycle at yesterday's lows that coincides with the YM daily, plus the ES 480, and 288 support cycles.  We may be in for a rather dull day as everyone focus their attention to tomorrow and what Mrs. Yellen has to say.  Trade safe.

MSP

MSP

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels

 

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update –August 24, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 8:30AMEST, 11:00AMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2185, 10DMA 2184, 20DMA 2178, 50DMA 2141

These are key Fib Levels:  2194, 2161

These are key primary and intermediate levels:  2180(minor), 2155(minor), 2148(minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, August 24,  2016

Today on the data docket we have the FHFA House Price Index at 9:00AMEST, Existing Home Sales at 10:00AMEST, and the EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30AMEST.  Yesterday's Fibonacci and Intermediate Minor level marked the high for the day as we continue to carve out yet another trading range which joins a long list from the past month and a half.  We currently have a new support cycle coming in on the 135 chart that coincides with a Bullish Retrace on the 60min that hints at higher prices before a more sustained decline, but with 2nd and 3rd Ends on the 288 and 480 charts along with  MSP at its turning window, anything from the long side should be taken with extreme caution.  Good luck today!

MSP

MSP

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update –August 23, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 1:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2184, 10DMA 2183, 20DMA 2177, 50DMA 2139

These are key Fib Levels:  2194, 2161

These are key primary and intermediate levels:  2180(minor), 2155(minor), 2148(minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, August 23,  2016

Overnight price action broke us above yesterday's trading range and opens the door to higher prices with an initial Fibonacci target of 2194.  Data wise we have the PMI Manufacturing at 9:45AMEST plus New Home Sales  and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index at  10:00AMEST.  5min cycles have put in a Bullish Retrace and an End for the overnight leg up and the 480 charts put in a new support cycle making a very narrowly defined range between support and resistance.  We are in the LT timing window for MSP, but the daily timing (white) doesn't top out till Wednesday.  Good luck today!

MSP

MSP

2016-08-23_8-54-54_LT_MSP

Long Term MSP

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update –August 22, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: N/A

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2182, 10DMA 2182, 20DMA 2176, 50DMA 2137

These are key Fib Levels:  2193, 2161, 2144

These are key primary and intermediate levels:  2180(minor), 2155(minor), 2148(minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, August 22,  2016

As noted in the weekend Technical Laboratory update, today into tomorrow marks the official turn date for the long term MSP.  There are no economic data releases today of significance.  We are still simply range bound between the 3rd end on the YM daily chart and the Bullish Retrace on the 480.  Of great importance is the fact that the 480 did put in the End to go with the Bullish Retrace so it has satisfied the minimum requirements for a full impulse.  A break of the Bullish Retrace or of the daily YM 3rd End will be of importance in the larger directional view.  Good luck today!

LT MSP

LT MSP