MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 1 – 5 Aug

Executive Summary:
Main Trend (weekly): neutral
Intermediate Trend (daily): up
Short-Term Trend (480&288min): up/neutral
Details:
The market basically did nothing but move sideways in a tight range, putting in a frustrating week. One interesting aspect to note is the fact that YM started to under-perform ES quite significantly. This can be seen also when looking at the potential break-out into an up impulse. The mcm-MA is close to confirming the up impulse on ES, but needs a lot more work on YM. Directionality continued to bounce, but didn’t make it to the max value yet, so going forward it will be important to see if it will. Another interesting aspect is the fact that the predictive pivot sits now very close to the resistance levels (highlighted on chart), which adds weight to the expectation that the market will come back to test that level. Reaction there will be critical to watch for confirmation or failure of the (potential) up impulse.

Weekly Cycles

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles show even better the under-performance on YM. While ES moved flatish to up, whipsawing the 2nd END resistance, YM drifted down from there. The directionality tool also started to move down and watching to see if it makes it to the minimum level will provide clues as to whether we will get the normal expectation of down movement from resistances or the market will attempt to spike (or even break) through.

Daily Cycles

Daily Cycles

The 480 and 288min cycles show nicely the unusual action from the last 2 weeks. ES only moved between 2151 and 2171 and has chopped the nerves of both bulls and bears. The 288min finished it’s up impulse with a 3rd END and is now oscillating, having a recent resistance at 2168.25. 480min is in a nested impulse up, which already had a 1st END, a new support and now we are on the look-out for a 2nd END resistance, which is likely to point the direction back down. Interesting is that the directionality tool moved to the lowest level on 480min and stayed there despite the choppy bounces. On 288 it bounced only recently, so the next 1-2 days will be important to see if it gets to the max value (pointing up) or it will be a failed bounce (pointing down).

288&480min Cycles

288&480min Cycles

In conclusion, the cycles show that downside risk is more significant than upside risk. The market did break-out over the resistances on the weekly and if the up impulses are confirmed, that would need to be respected. However the daily cycles are in the unwind phase of the huge up impulse, having put in a 2nd END resistance. It is unlikely that after such a big run, the market will have enough energy left to push through the resistances for more than a brief spike, before a more significant pull-back. The 288 and 480min are also unwinding up impulses (288 is oscillating already), which points to the same conclusion: the market is dissipating the energy from this huge rally and looks more close to a top than an intermediary bottom. That being said, if the shorter time frame cycles 288/480min but also 60/135min (not shown) will break into fresh up impulses, that would be an early warning that the market is indeed trying to push upwards despite the odds.

 

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update –July 29, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 12:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2169, 10DMA 2169, 20DMA 2149, 50DMA 2110

These are key Fib Levels:  2191, 2186, 2156, 2145

These are key primary and intermediate levels:  2130(minor), 2126(primary major), 2116(major)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, July 29,  2016

As monetary policy remains unchanged for both Japan and the US Central Banks, so does the market as we continue in the 2nd tightest two week range in the S&P's history.  GDP produced a muted response this morning upon it's release but we have a couple other data points that hit the tape a little later with Chicago PMI at 9:45AMEST and Consumer Sentiment at 10:00AMEST.  Cycles have predominantly completed impulses and are currently oscillating.  Daily MSP favors a marginally upward bias at present.  Good luck today and everyone here at MCM hopes you have a exceptional weekend.

MSP

MSP

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update –July 28, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 8:30AMEST, 1:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2169, 10DMA 2167, 20DMA 2145, 50DMA 2108

These are key Fib Levels:  2191, 2186, 2156, 2145

These are key primary and intermediate levels:  2130(minor), 2126(primary major), 2116(major)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Thursday, July 28,  2016

FOMC came and went without even so much as a hick-up outside of the current trading range surprisingly enough.  Since Bernake has taken a trip to Japan to discuss their 'situation', more emphasis may be put on what they do with their Central Bank announcement in the overnight session this evening.  There are a number of items to hit the tape this morning starting with International Trade and Jobless Claims at 8:30AMEST.  That is followed by the Consumer Comfort Index at 9:45AMEST, EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30AMEST, and the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index at 11:00AMEST.  We have a new support cycle that triggered on the overnight weakness so that should be watched closely as a hint to whether we may make an attempt to break down out of the trading range, until then, play the edges.  Good luck today.

MSP

MSP

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update –July 27, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 12:00PMEST, 4:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2170, 10DMA 2168, 20DMA 2142, 50DMA 2106

These are key Fib Levels:  2191, 2186, 2156, 2145

These are key primary and intermediate levels:  2130(minor), 2126(primary major), 2116(major)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, July 27,  2016

Finally, the FOMC announcement day has arrived after two weeks of range bound market torture.  Depending on your risk seeking/aversion, this could be your day to either find something else to do or formulate a game plan for 2:00PMEST.  We have another reasonably heavy data day with Durable Goods at 8:30AMEST, MBA Mortgage Applications at 10:00AMEST, and EIA Petroleum Status at 10:30AMEST.  Lastly and most importantly is the FOMC announcement at 2:00PMEST.  On the cycles front, the 60min chart put a 3rd end in during the overnight session.  Good luck today and be mindful of any open positions coming into the 2 o'clock hour.

MSP

MSP

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update –July 26, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 11:30AMEST, 3:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2169, 10DMA 2165, 20DMA 2137, 50DMA 2103

These are key Fib Levels:  2179, 2169, 2150, 2138

These are key primary and intermediate levels:  2130(minor), 2126(primary major), 2116(major)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, July 26,  2016

Happy FOMC meeting begin day everyone!  As assumed from last week, the market has remained in a consolidation/termination pattern in anticipation of tomorrow's announcement.  Data docket has a reasonable number of items with PMI Services at 9:45AMEST, New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, and State Street Investor Confidence all hitting the tape at 10:00AMEST.  We have a new unconfirmed 2nd End on the 480 charts and many of the other cycle charts have confirmed a trading range.  It may be in everyone's best interest just to play the edges till tomorrow's announcement before getting overly committed to a direction.  Good luck today.

MSP

MSP

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 25 – 29 July

Executive Summary:
Main Trend (weekly): neutral
Intermediate Trend (daily): up
Short-Term Trend (480&288min): up
Details:
The market continued the relentless up move, albeit at a slower pace. As mentioned last week a potential break-out and up impulse on the weekly cycles is now on the table, as price moved significantly above resistances. The direction in the next 1-2 weeks will be critical for confirmation (or not) of the up impulse. If the markets travel back down, the back-test of the resistance level became also very important to watch, as it is now support. The bounce started by the directionality tool continued and going forward it will be important to see if it gets to the maximum value or it will be a failed bounce.

Weekly Cycles

Weekly Cycles

Last week a significant development was registered on the daily cycles. A 2nd END resistance was triggered pointing to the continuing unwind of the up impulse. This 2nd phase of the unwind was unusually strong and as a result this sub-wave is a lot bigger than the 1st unwind (1st BR and END). The normal expectation now is for the market to correct until a new support level is triggered which will likely lead to another bounce to a 3rd END and complete unwind of the up impulse.

Daily Cycles

Daily Cycles

The 480 and 288min cycles are both in up impulses. 288 is already in the unwind phase, having had already an END and a following support, so a 2nd END could trigger soon. 480 is in a nested impulse which, even if it confirmed, never really broke out from the vicinity of the resistance, so it could still be reversed directly. It is interesting that the directionality tool on both fell and at the moment is bound at the minimum level which is usually a sign for weakness. Near term it will be important to see if it stays there or it bounces.

288&480min Cycles

288&480min Cycles

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update –July 22, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 9:00AMEST, 12:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2168, 10DMA 2160, 20DMA 2122, 50DMA 2098

These are key Fib Levels:  2179, 2169, 2150, 2138

These are key primary and intermediate levels:  2130(minor), 2126(primary major), 2116(major)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, 22 July,  2016

HAL book roughly a quarter of its position with yesterday's weakness and today looks set to be the same after some strength into timing at 9:00AMEST.  There are a couple data points for this session with PMI Manufacturing Index at 9:45AMEST, and the Baker-Hughes Rig count near afternoon timing at 1:00PMEST for all of you oil buffs.  The ATH's are key still with the daily 2nd End located there while the 288 chart has a support cycle that triggered at the lows of yesterdays cash session.  That will define the range and give clues as to what direction the market will likely want to take in the near term.  Everyone here at MCM hopes you have a great weekend, and trade safe today.

MSP

MSP

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update –July 21, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 8:30AMEST, 1:15AMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2167, 10DMA 2157, 20DMA 2119, 50DMA 2096

These are key Fib Levels:  2179, 2150, 2138

These are key primary and intermediate levels:  2130(minor), 2126(primary major), 2116(major)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Thursday, July 21,  2016

With HAL adding to its position size on close yesterday, downside risks continue to pile up.  Timing this morning coincides with a reasonably decent sized data release so be mindful of that with Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Business Outlook, and Chicago Fed National Activity Survey all hitting the tape at 8:30AMEST.  After that we have FHFA Housing Price Index at 9:00AMEST, the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index at 9:30AMEST, and Existing Home Sales plus Leading Indicators at 10:00AMEST.  Finally, to round out the set there is the EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30AMEST.  The 60min cycle chart has an unconfirmed Bullish Retrace which will need to be unwound so long as price remains in the general area and it confirms at 9:00AMEST.  There still remains a great deal of overhead resistance with a 2nd End on the daily charts and an End on the 288 here at the highs.  Good luck today.

 

MSP

MSP

 

 

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update –July 20, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 7:30AMEST, 1:00AMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2165, 10DMA 2149, 20DMA 2112, 50DMA 2094

These are key Fib Levels:  2179, 2150, 2138

These are key primary and intermediate levels:  2130(minor), 2126(primary major), 2116(major)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, July 20,  2016

The range racing continues in the overnight as we run from lower bound back to the upper bound.  Another light economic day is in store with only MBA Mortgage Applications at 7:00AMEST, and EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:00AMEST.  The daily cycles did confirm yesterday's 2nd End, so some caution is warranted on the long side.  The 288 cycle chart finally put in it's Bullish Retrace marker and can begin its impulse unwind process.  Keep in mind that impulse unwinds can happen at or below the BR level.  They do not need to continue in the direction of the prevailing impulse.  Good luck today and trade safe.

MSP

MSP

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update –July 19, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 11:30AMEST, 3:00AMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2160, 10DMA 2141, 20DMA 2108, 50DMA 2092

These are key Fib Levels:  2196, 2170, 2152, 2141

These are key primary and intermediate levels:  2130(minor), 2126(primary major), 2116(major)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, 19 July,  2016

It is going to be another light day on the economic data front with only the Red Book at 8:55AMEST.  It appears based off  price behavior that there could be a string of very quiet trading days leading up to the FOMC announcement next week.  In the area of cycles, the daily has put in an unconfirmed 2nd End which will confirm at the end of the ES trading session so long as there isn't a substantial rise in price during the trading day.  This will make for a battleground area for buyers and sellers going forward.  Good luck today and mind the chop.

MSP

MSP

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels