S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – June 30, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  10:00AMEST, 1:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  10DMA 2066, 50DMA 2076, 2080DMA

These are key Fib Levels:  2099, 2089, 2054

These are key primary and intermediate levels:  2086(major), 2072(major), 2056(minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Thursday, June 30,  2016

With HAL exiting all positions at close of business yesterday and longer term MSP looking for a turn after the holiday we can now begin looking for a topping process.  This is not to say that there aren't new highs coming, but the old adage that topping is a process and bottoms an event applies which means patience.  On the economic data front we have the Chicago PMI at 9:45AMEST and also Fed member Bullard speaking at 2:00PMEST.  We have 3rd Ends on both the 5min and 15min cycle charts along with resistance cycles on both the 288 and 480 at the overnight highs which is going to make for some choppy price action on a revisit to those levels.  Good luck today and remember cash is a position.

Intermediate MSP

Intermediate MSP

MSP

MSP

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – June 29, 2016 (MSP Edition)

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  11:00AMEST, 3:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2045, 10SMA 2063, 100SMA 2032

These are key Fib Levels:  2052, 2066

These are key primary and intermediate levels:  2056(minor), 2040(major), 2020/21(primary/intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, June 29,  2016

HAL scaled out of some contracts in the overnight session but still remains long as it looks for more rally potential.  The longer term MSP concurs with HAL on direction and is looking for a turn date around the 6th of July +/- a few days.  On the data front we have Pending Home Sales at 10:00AMEST and EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30AMEST which is close to 11:00AMEST timing.  The 15min cycles are hunting for a 3rd End for this rally which could trigger a minor pullback.  Good luck today.

MSP

MSP

Intermediate MSP

Intermediate MSP

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – June 28, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  11:00AMEST, 2:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  100SMA 2032, 200SMA 2020

These are key Fib Levels:  2020, 2038

These are key primary and intermediate levels:  2020/21(primary/intermediate minor), 2004(primary major), 1992(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, June 28,  2016

HAL is currently long with a full allocation and with finding support at the 1992 intermediate minor level, the near term market direction is skewed markedly in the upward direction.  The 200SMA resides at 2019/20 so some overhead resistance should be expected there as a result of that and the 2020/21 Primary minor and Intermediate minor levels.  The 15min cycle has just printed an unconfirmed Bullish retrace so the cycles are beginning to unwind the ramp from yesterday's lows.  Economic data wise we have the all important GDP at 8:30AMEST, Case Shiller Home Price Index at 9:00AMEST, and Consumer Confidence coming it at 10:00AMEST.  Good luck today and profitable trading.

MSP

MSP

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – June 27, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  9:30AMEST, 2:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  100SMA 2038, 200SMA 2022

These are key Fib Levels:  2015, 1998

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2040(major), 2020/21(primary/intermediate minor), 2004(primary major)

 

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, June 27,  2016

Although the cash chart will show another gap down on open the S&P futures are just a retrace of the initial drop from the Brexit vote last week which requires some management of expectations.  Our two primary data points for today are the Non Manufacturing PMI at 9:45AMEST, and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey at 10:30AMEST.  We've put in a 3rd End on the 15min cycles chart which hints that a near term bottom could be in place. Coupled that with the 2nd End on the 288 and End on the 480, both of which have LRE's in the same general vicinity which makes this area of great importance.  Capitulation bars on both the YM and ES daily cycle charts and LRE's at the overnight lows on the weekly charts solidify the notion that this area is a battle ground for market direction and its vying participants.  Good luck today and profitable trading.

MSP

MSP

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 27 June – 1 July

Executive Summary:
Main Trend (weekly): neutral
- Intermediate Trend (daily): up
Short-Term Trend (480&288min): down
Details:
On the weekly cycles, the market re-tested the resistance levels once more before being denied with authority. Again the resistance held cleanly on YM and was spiked briefly on ES. The directionality tool (white lines at the bottom of the charts) finally started to move down on both indexes which is a serious warning that the trend is changing. We did get a LRE (lower risk entry) for longs at the lows from Friday which shows that at least short term the market is oversold, so a near term bounce would not be totally unreasonable to expect. We need to be aware however that due to the large move, the market could drop further (and quite significantly) before the bounce (as it happened on the previous LREs for longs triggered on ES - highlighted on the chart).

Weekly Cycles

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles provided again a nice “zoom-in” into the weekly cycles. The bounce from the 2nd support triggered (which corresponded with the test of the mcm-MA on the weekly) was very strong and already reached an area where a 2nd END resistance could trigger (at the highs of last week). The Brexit vote was the main news behind the huge daily bar from Friday which spiked directly through support and triggered a LRE for longs at the low (same like weekly). The price is still below the support level and it is important to see how the market will behave when (or if) it will come back to test it. If the market comes back above it and we do not get a 2nd END resistance trigger at the previous highs, then a bigger bounce might ensue. If it cannot come back above, that could have very bearish consequences since it could be the start of an impulse down.

Daily Cycles

Daily Cycles

The 480 and 288min cycles were in down impulses and they attempted to reverse them by breaking above the resistances triggered in the form of a bearish retrace (BR) on 480min and a 2nd BR on 288. The up impulses never confirmed (mcm-MA never broke above the break-out level) as the market reversed strongly on the Brexit news and found a bottom marked by support and a LRE for longs on both cycles. The bounce from there touched the mcm-MA on 480 and spiked it a bit on 288 before reversing. Where this down move ends will be telling for the near term direction and the support levels area is key to watch. The current move is close to qualify already as a back-test of the support levels, however the market could test them better and even make a new low by spiking below.

480&288min Cycles

480&288min Cycles

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – June 24, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  n/a

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2085, 10SMA 2079, 20SMA 2092, 50SMA 2080

These are key Fib Levels: 2041, 2015, 1998

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2040(major), 2020/21(primary/intermediate minor), 2004(primary major)

Brexit polls did not disappoint as anticipated in the overnight causing a 6% swing in the markets and some serious carnage.  We have consumer sentiment coming out at 10:00AMEST in the data department.  Cycles have put in minimum bearish retrace requirements on the 5, 15, 288, and 480.  We also have LRE's on both the YM and ES weekly and daily charts at the overnight lows.  Good luck today and be careful as participants try to balance out positions during the regular trading hours.  There's likely to be some serious short bursts of price movement.  Trade safe.

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels

 

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – June 23, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  10:00AMEST, 3:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2086, 10SMA 2082, 20SMA 2094, 50SMA 2081

These are key Fib Levels: 2073, 2116

These are key primary and intermediate levels:  2073(major), 2086(major), 2099(minor), 2116(major)

Market uncertainty in the face of the British vote to leave or stay is going to dominate again today as players speculate in both market positions and voting outcome.  We have a few items of interest on the data front today with Jobless Claims at 8:30AMEST, PMI Manufacturing at 9:45AMEST, and New Home sales at 10:00AMEST.  We also have timing that coincides with two of the three economic releases which could set the mood for the day via MSP.  A capitulation bar marked the over night high on the 288 and 60min charts so be mindful that area.  Mind your stops and have a great trading day.

MSP

MSP

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – June 22, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  11:30AMEST, 1:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2082, 10SMA 2084, 20SMA 2094, 50SMA 2080

These are key Fib Levels: 2073, 2116

These are key primary and intermediate levels:  2073(major), 2086(major), 2099(minor), 2116(major)

Not a whole lot to discuss with regards to overnight price action as all we've done is retrace the same area over and over again.  A couple noteworthy Economic items on the docket today with Existing Home Sales at 10:00AMEST, and EIA Petroleum Status at 10:30AMEST.  We have defined a range between 2094 and 2080 on the S&P and until that range breaks there is nothing in the way of useful information that can be gleaned from price action.   There will likely be more of the same until Thursday evening when the Brexit, or Bremain, or whatever cute hollywood couple name blending the media decides to give it is finalized.  Cash is a position too.  Enjoy your day.

MSP

MSP

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – June 21, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  2:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2079, 10SMA 2087, 20SMA 2094, 50SMA 2080

These are key Fib Levels: 2073, 2096, 2116

These are key primary and intermediate levels:  2073(major), 2086(major), 2099(minor), 2116(major)

Although a light economic data day, be on the lookout for none other than the Fed Chair herself to speak at 10:00AMEST which has a tendency to cause price to get a little choppy.  The 5, 15, 60, and 135 charts have completely unwound to the downside into yesterday's lows so those will need to get taken out if sellers are looking to get some new impulses working to the downside.  The 288 is wrestling with a Bearish Retrace wile the 480 has resistance just overhead providing a cap for present price.  Anything in between these two levels is noise and shouldn't be read into all that much.  Have a good day and trade safe.

MSP

MSP

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – June 20, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  9:30AMEST, 1:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2076, 10SMA 2090, 20SMA 2093, 50SMA 2080

These are key Fib Levels: 2096, 2116, 2062

These are key primary and intermediate levels:  2059(minor), 2073(major), 2086(major), 2099(minor), 2116(major)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, June 20, 2016

Polls for whether the UK would exit the EU dominated the weekend discussion and is being reflected in price this morning as the futures are indicating that the S&P will open up over 1%.  RVS has shaved off the majority of its long holdings but still has a couple remaining contracts which hints that the upside may not be entirely done, but the risks of it being so have increased considerably.  There is nothing of note on the economic front for market moving material this trading session so popup headlines regarding the referendum vote could catch may participants by surprise.  Good luck today.  We have a BR on the 288 cycle chart and short term cycles are beginning to break support so short term weakness shouldn't be surprising.  Good luck today.

MSP

MSP

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels