S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – May 31, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  11:00AMEST, 1:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2097, 10SMA 2075, 20SMA 2067, 50SMA 2068

These are key Fib Levels:  2082, 2091, 2112

These are key primary and intermediate levels:   2086(major), 2099(minor), 2115(major)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for  Tuesday, May 31, 2016

With a few noteworthy data points today we could see some market movement.  We have the Chicago PMI at 9:45AMEST, and the Consumer Confidence at 10:00AMEST followed by timing going into the eleven o'clock hour.  Overnight sessions through the holiday weekend have seen a continued grind higher,  although a gap up is likely to transpire for the cash session it doesn't reflect the actual price action over the past couple of evenings.  We will be above the intermediate minor level now at 2099, sustained trade above this level opens the door for a run to the next major intermediate level at 2115.  Trade safe and have a good day.

MSP

MSP

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 30 May – 3 Jun

Executive Summary:
Main Trend (weekly): neutral
Intermediate Trend (daily): up
Short-Term Trend (480&288min): up/neutral
Details:
The initial decline from the triggered resistance level on the weekly cycles has stopped when it tested the mcm-MA and the market managed to bounce from there. Now, price is close enough to the resistance level to be considered a back-test (highlighted on chart). What happens here will be key for the main trend direction, with the normal expectation being for resistance to hold and market to have a more pronounced correction. As it can be seen from the previous resistance levels, it would not be totally unexpected for the market to either head directly lower or challenge the resistance a bit more before that. The directionality tool should be watched closely for signs of down movement as well. Interesting is that YM is underperforming ES, being about 200 points below the resistance level, while ES is only 7 points.

Weekly Cycles

Weekly Cycles

On the daily cycles, we can see that the mcm-MA on the weekly also had help from the daily when it held. Namely, the market back-tested the bullish retrace (BR) support which had triggered a while back. That back-test showed that not all is as bullish as everyone thinks since the support held with difficulty and was spiked below. However it did hold in the end and market bounced strongly from there. Now an END resistance to that BR could trigger basically any time at these levels. It can also be seen even better than on the weekly cycles how significant is the YM underperformance - while ES went clearly above the previous high, YM did not and is in that general area. The mcm-MA on YM also turned red and we started to get some LRE (lower risk entries) for shorts. As previously said, once that END triggers, that would signal a possible unwind of the up impulse and in the context of the weekly, a larger down move would be expected. There is also the option that a 2nd BR will trigger and require a 2nd END, which would need more back and forth movement before the bigger correction.

Daily Cycles

Daily Cycles

The 480 and 288min cycles show the effect of the big move we had in the past 4 days. 480min actually broke into an up impulse, while 288 had a larger regular wave which triggered resistance at 2092.75. Considering the up impulse on 480, if the market sustains the move past this level and starts an impulse also on the 288min cycle, then we would have to acknowledge that the bounce would have further to run. However, the resistance on 288 might still hold, despite of it having been spiked briefly, so keeping an eye on that level in the next few trading sessions is important.

288&480min Cycles

288&480min Cycles

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – May 27, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  9:45AMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2080, 10SMA 2065, 20SMA 2063, 50SMA 2066

These are key Fib Levels:  2082 and 2100

These are key primary and intermediate levels:    2060(minor), 2072(major), 2086(major), 2099(minor),

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for  Friday, May 27th, 2016

Happy Friday!  A rather subdued overnight and early morning session even with the release of GDP and most likely a function of pressing into a holiday weekend and the beginning of the summer trading months.  Consumer sentiment is the only data point today that should move the needle at all at 1000AMEST since GDP was released earlier.  Longer term MSP is taking us into a period of weakness starting in this general time area so please be mindful of that when planning your trades.  We have a 2nd end on the 60min chart and also new support so whichever of those is taken out first will likely define the near term trend.  Have a good weekend everyone.

MSP

MSP

LT MSP

LT MSP

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – May 26, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  10:00AMEST,  2:15PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2071, 10SMA 2062, 20SMA 2061, 50SMA 2065

These are key Fib Levels:  2082 and 2100

These are key primary and intermediate levels:    2060(minor), 2072(major), 2086(major), 2099(minor),

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for  Thursday, May 26th, 2016

Pending Home Sales this morning coincides with MSP timing at 10:00AMEST so that will be the first point to watch.  Overnight session was range bound while putting in marginal new lows relative to the cash market.  We have full cycle completions on all three RSI charts with a very noticeable divergence on the MCM-CCI.  The 60min chart is still lacking an end which hints that the rally may not be fully mature.  Have a good day and trade safe.

MSP

MSP

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – May 25, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  10:15AMEST,  3:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2061, 10SMA 2057, 20SMA 2061, 50SMA 2064

These are key Fib Levels:  2091 and 2100

These are key primary and intermediate levels:    2060(minor), 2072(major), 2086(major), 2099(minor),

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for  Wednesday, May 25th, 2016

As the rally continued through the overnight we are currently at an important opening price point for the SPX levels at 2086.  Opening above this and basing on it will be a clue that price is most likely heading for the next overhead level at 2099.  We currently have a freshly printed Bullish Retrace on the 15min chart which hints that more unwinding is required in the present rally.  The run has been quite relentless so some consolidation/chop should be expected during the session.  The 135 cycle chart has resistance in the general vicinity of the over night high which coincides with the SPX 2086 levels chart.  There is also a new bearish LRE on the daily YM chart that appeared on today's price bar.  Good luck today and profitable trading.

MSP

MSP

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – May 24, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  11:00AMEST,  1:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2049, 10SMA 2053, 20SMA 2062, 50SMA 2061

These are key primary and intermediate levels:   2040(minor) 2060(minor), 2072(major),

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for  Tuesday, May 24th, 2016

We have two data points, New Home Sales and Richmond Industrial Fed Survey, at 10:00AMEST which is near timing for today so that hour window will be important as to which MSP we will follow into the afternoon.  Support held on both the 135 and 60min charts and a new support cycle triggered on the 288 chart in the overnight.  A break above the two day range targets the 2070's.  Trade safe and have a good day.

MSP

MSP

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – May 23, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  9:30AMEST,  2:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2048, 10SMA 2056, 20SMA 2063, 50SMA 2061

These are key primary and intermediate levels:  2020(minor) 2021(minor primary) 2040(minor) 2060(minor), 2072(major),

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for  Monday, May 23rd, 2016

A choppy overnight session has left little in the way of clues as to near term market direction.  Key timing at 9:30AMEST coupled with the PMI Manufacturing release at 9:45AMEST makes for an area of interest first thing in the cash session.  SPX was solidly rejected with a backtest of the 50SMA and then found support at the 5EMA as momentum traders came into the market.  This will define a near term range especially taking into account the 3rd end on the 60min cycles charts warns of a full bullish cycle completion.  Trade safe and best of luck.

MSP

MSP

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 23 – 27 May

Executive Summary:
Main Trend (weekly): neutral
Intermediate Trend (daily): up
Short-Term Trend (480&288min): neutral
Details:
The weekly cycles continued to move slightly downward from the resistance level. As mentioned a while back, the mcm-MA provided some support and the market failed to break below it so far. Also a historically relevant level was tested last week and held (highlighted on the chart). The directionality tool is still at the highest level and it would be important to see when it starts moving lower. So far it looks still open whether the market will be able to back-test the resistance level again or if it will accelerate down.

Weekly Cycles

Weekly Cycles

On the daily cycles, the unwind of the up impulse is continuing. After failing to sustain the initial bounce off the bullish retrace (BR) support, the market back-tested that level again, came slightly below it and recovered it once more. Although the support level may still hold and this bounce could continue until an END resistance is triggered higher, the fact that the price came below the support level shows the market is no longer full-on bullish. That also means that the END could come after a weaker bounce than usual.

Daily Cycles

Daily Cycles

The 480 and 288min cycles continued to whipsaw their support and resistance levels, showing the emotional behavior of the market. The last level triggered was support on both, which appears to be holding after being spiked below in a few instances. As the predictive pivot is also higher, the normal expectation is for the bounce to continue until a resistance level is triggered. How the market behaves there will be important for the near term.

288&480min Cycles

288&480min Cycles

In conclusion, it seems the market is staying true to the saying a top is a process not an event. The 288&480min cycles did not break into real impulses just yet (although 480 had an impulse down unwind, that had more a sideways form rather then being truly impulsive). The BR support on the daily still attempts to hold and is the key line in the sand for downside movement, while the resistance on weekly is key for upside movement.

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – May 20, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  9:45AMEST,  1:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2050, 10SMA 2056, 20SMA 2064, 50SMA 2061, 200SMA 2008

These are key primary and intermediate levels:  2020(minor) 2021(minor primary) 2040(minor) 2060(minor), 2072(major),

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for  Friday, May 20th, 2016

After bouncing cleanly off symmetry at yesterday's low of the day the market has sustained a significant rally and has held through the overnight.  We have Existing Home Sales as our one significant data point today at 10:00AMEST which coincides with MSP timing.  In the cycles we currently have a Bullish Retrace on the 15min that has served as support through the overnight session and a 2nd End on the 60min chart that should provide overhead resistance.  Happy Friday and enjoy your weekend!

CFD SPX

CFD SPX

MSP

MSP

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – May 19, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  10:00AMEST,  3:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2049, 10SMA 2057, 20SMA 2066, 50SMA 2060, 200SMA 2008

These are key primary and intermediate levels:  2020(minor) 2021(minor primary) 2040(minor) 2060(minor), 2072(major),

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for  Thursday, May 19th, 2016

With the massive whipsaw yesterday, we've created a rather large range racing zone so be careful with placing stops inside of it because they can be grabbed very easily with short out sized moves.  On the historical extreme's chart you can see that we've moved into the vacuum space which doesn't provide much in the way of support so long as we remain under the 2040 SPX intermediate minor level.  The bulk of the data has been put on the market 8:30AMEST but the Leading Indicators at 10:00AMEST has the potential to cause an uptick in volatility, and being that it coincides with timing it makes it an increased time of interest.  Good luck today.

MSP

MSP

Historical Extremes

Historical Extremes

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels