S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – April 29, 2016

Best to your trading & welcome to our new subscribers

These are key timing for today: 12:30PMEST

These are key MA levels as of previous day close:  5EMA 2086, 20SMA 2076

These are key primary and intermediate levels:  2075, 2086, 2060(minor)

Here is today's premarket look at the S&P 500 for  Friday, April 29, 2016

With a quiet overnight session to consolidate losses, we could be in for another market moving day.  Chicago PMI and Consumer Sentiment hit the tape at 9:45amest and 10:00amest respectively with timing coming in at the 12:30pmest hour.  60min MCM cycle moving averages have crossed over and  flipped from green to red so continued weakness is highly probable.  Hope everyone has a great Friday and weekend.  See you all on Monday.

2016-04-29_0-24-52_IntradayMSP

mSPXLevelsDetail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – April 28, 2016

Good morning everyone.  Apparently 'unchanged' has two entirely different meanings in English and Japanese.

These are key timing for today: 8:30AM and 1:00PM

These are key MA levels as of previous day close:  20SMA - 2075

These are key primary and intermediate levels:  2060(minor), 2071, 2085, 2099(minor)

Here is today's premarket look at the S&P 500 for  Thursday, April 2, 2016,

While the BOJ and the FED did the same exact thing, they were not created equal in the eyes of the market.  We've picked up a new support cycle on the 135min chart which is currently marking the over night lows at the S&P 2076 equivalent level.  There are potential market moving events this morning on the data docket with Personal Income and Outlays at 8:30am which coincides with MSP timing, Chicago PMI at 9:45am, and Consumer Sentiment at 10:00am to be mindful of.  Trade safe and have a good day.

2016-04-28_1-47-07_intradayMSP mSPXLevelsDetail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – April 27, 2016

Best to your trading & welcome to our new subscribers

These are key timing for today: 7:30AM and 1:30PM

These are key MA levels as of previous day close:  5EMA 2094, 10SMA 2088

These are key primary and intermediate levels:  2071, 2085, 2099(minor), 2116

Here is today's pre market look at the S&P 500 for  Wednesday, April 27, 2016,

Happy FOMC day everyone!  While today is only scheduled to be a rate announcement with little in the way of press conferences, any quotes made by any Fed member throughout the day could set the tone for what is read into by the actual announcement.  Markets have been choppy as a result of the anticipation and will likely continue to be so till the release at 2:ooPMEST this afternoon.  As expected, there is key timing near the 2PM witching hour so be mindful of a high or low at that time and which daily MSP is correlated best at the time for hints of how the remaining two hours of trading may unfold.  Best of luck out there today and be mindful of your stop placement this afternoon as volatility is virtually assured to pick up dramatically.

2016-04-26_18-27-21_intradayMSP

Today's Intraday MSP

mSPXLevelsDetail

SPX (Cash) Levles chart

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 25 Apr – 30 Apr

Executive Summary:
Main Trend (weekly): neutral
Intermediate Trend (daily): up
Short-Term Trend (480&288min): neutral/up
Details:
Not too much to be said about the weekly cycles. The situation is pretty much the same as in the previous few weeks: the oscillation is ongoing and the resistance level did not trigger yet. The market is now in the area of the previous resistance level and also slightly above the predictive pivot, but so far there are no clear signs of a reversal (or resistance triggering).

Weekly Cycles

Weekly Cycles

On the daily cycles, the up impulses reached yet another historical extreme area. The directionality tool on YM turned down, bounced and now it is turning down yet again. That doesn’t mean that the market will turn immediately, but it does show that the up strength is weakening and we believe that the risk has shifted and long positions should be reduced or hedged. Once the market finally tops, the expectation is for a more significant pull-back to happen which would trigger a bullish retrace (BR). Reaction to that BR support would be important, the normal expectation being a bounce to an END resistance higher, which would signal the unwind of the up impulse.

Daily Cycles

Daily Cycles

The 480 and 288min cycles have oscillated for quite a while. Recently both managed to break out into up impulses, after the market broke resistances triggered at 2077.25 (point 1 on chart). The impulses never really established themselves though and came back to test the break-out level several times. On 288min, the most recent back-test triggered a bullish retrace (BR) at nearly the same level, which usually has higher odds of holding. The 480min did trigger a support level, however before this confirmed, the market traveled below the break-out level and so the support level confirmed below, invalidating the up impulse (point 2 on the chart). Considering the support triggered on both, the normal expectation is for the market to bounce until new resistance levels are triggered. However if the market breaks down through these levels, that would be a strong signal that an important short term top is in.

288&480min Cycles

288&480min Cycles

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 18 Apr – 22 Apr

Executive Summary:
Main Trend (weekly): neutral
Intermediate Trend (daily): up
Short-Term Trend (480&288min): neutral

Details:
The weekly cycles are still oscillating. The mcm-MA turned green and, although that invalidated the 2 consecutive LRE (lower risk entries) for shorts which triggered a while back, the reaction to the expected resistance level will be key going forward.

Weekly Cycles

Weekly Cycles

On the daily cycles, the up impulses are relentless. The market had only brief pull-backs which never triggered a bullish retrace (BR). The directionality tool on YM finally turned down, but quickly bounced again. Although that does point to the fact that the last pull-back was more important than the previous ones and put a dent in the bullish up move, there is still no sign of a top. Once the market finally tops, the normal expectation is for a more significant pull-back to happen which would trigger a BR and then a bounce to an END which would signal the unwind of the impulse.

Daily Cycles

Daily Cycles

The 480 and 288min cycles are still oscillating. The change in the oscillating nature which we were pointing last week seems to have been only temporary, the market managing to make a higher high now which triggered also a new resistance level (at 2075). The normal expectation now is for the market to come back down until it finds a new support level. As already mentioned several times, once the market breaks into an impulse on these cycles that will be a strong message about the intermediate term direction.

288&480min Cycles

288&480min Cycles

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 11 – 17 Apr

Executive Summary:
Main Trend (weekly): neutral
Intermediate Trend (daily): up
Short-Term Trend (480&288min): neutral
Details:
The weekly cycles are still oscillating. The mcm-MA turned green last week and invalidated the 2 consecutive LRE (lower risk entries) for shorts which triggered a while back. A resistance level did not trigger yet, but it is close. Normal expectation would be for the market to head lower after the resistance level is confirmed. Considering that this wave was quite large in price movement that would also make it more difficult for the market to keep pushing higher.

Weekly Cycles

Weekly Cycles

On the daily cycles, the up impulses are still ongoing. The market did pull-back a bit and got back to the area of the predictive pivot which we mentioned last week. The directionality tool on YM finally turned (highlighted on the chart) and is now coming into the lower range, which points to the upper pressure weakening. The expectation going forward is for the pull-back to continue until a support in the form of a bullish retrace (BR) will trigger. In the mean time, if the market moves down, a reaction could occur also when market price will reach the mcm-MA.

Daily Cycles

Daily Cycles

The 480 and 288min cycles are still oscillating. The nature of the oscillation seems to have changed though, with the waves making lower highs and lower lows (highlighted on the chart), while until the beginning of April it was the other way around. Whether an important turning point was reached remains to be confirmed, and the next impulse break-out will be important. That being said the last level triggered was support on both cycles (at 2025.75) and the normal expectation is for a resistance level to be triggered next.

480 & 288min Cycles

480 & 288min Cycles

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 4 Apr – 10 Apr

Executive Summary:
Main Trend (weekly): neutral
Intermediate Trend (daily): up
Short-Term Trend (480&288min): neutral
Details:
Again no change in the weekly cycles. They are oscillating and we are still on the look-out for when the next resistance level will trigger, which would point to a correction until a new support level is found. As mentioned in the previous newsletter, it is also important to watch if the mcm-MA will turn green since that would invalidate the 2 consecutive LRE (lower risk entries) for shorts which triggered a while back. Until then, the LREs are still valid although the market overshot their trigger level.

Weekly Cycles

Weekly Cycles

On the daily cycles, the up impulses are ongoing and are respecting their bullish nature. There has been no significant pull-back in order for a bullish retrace (BR) to trigger, so even if the main trend shown is up, a correction from these levels is not out of the question. Last week we were pointing to some signs appearing, like the directionality tool on ES turning down. That was a failed attempt, since it never got back below 0 and bounced. On YM it never left the upper range, so once it does that will be a warning that the strong bullish trend is waning. The predictive pivot is now lower than the market price too and since it usually acts as a magnet, it also points to the probability shifting to a correction. Once we do get that, the reaction of the market to the triggered BR will be key to watch.

Daily Cycles

Daily Cycles

The 480 and 288min cycles are oscillating and have been doing so for a while. The 288min cycle actually attempted an impulse down after briefly going below the support triggered at 2047, however the market managed to bounce back above it and canceled the attempt. The 480min cycle has resistance as last triggered level and the market is bumping into it again (at 2064.75). Reaction here will be important to watch, together with the reaction on the next triggered resistance level on 288min. The normal expectation is for resistance to hold, of course, and the market to move back down until a new support level is found.

288&480min Cycles

288&480min Cycles