- Main Trend (weekly): neutral
- Intermediate Trend (daily): up
- Short-Term Trend (60min&135min): down (updated 30.11.:neutral)
No significant developments on the weekly cycles compared to last week. They are currently just oscillating and resistances held so far, although the market recovered from the initial drop and stopped close to the resistance levels again. Not too much to add to what we said in the previous newsletter: "These levels are now critical to watch. The normal expectation is still for resistances to hold and the market to head lower until a support level is triggered. But if the market manages to break through and head higher, that would signal an important shift in the character of the market and would be very bullish."
After back-testing their break-out levels at 2015 ES and 17100 YM, the daily cycles bounced strongly. In the last newsletter we were mentioning that “Now that the back-test of the up impulse held, there is nothing bearish shown by the daily cycles". The statement is still valid, especially since ES put in a Bullish Retrace (BR) at 2065.25. Normally the market should go higher, until an END resistance is put in. In any case the new support level is important to watch. If the market heads lower before a resistance is triggered and breaks this level, the impulse up might be reversed.
The 60 and 135min cycles seemed to have put in the short lines in the sand. The 60min started a down impulse at 2090.75, while the 135min is currently just oscillating and had a resistance trigger at 2083. The market was "arrested" between these 2 levels ever since they triggered, not being able to break below nor reverse back above. The levels are important for the short term direction and depending on which one breaks first, market is expected to continue in that direction.
Update 30.11.: the 60min reversed its impulse down and put in resistance at the same level as the one newly triggered on 135min (2095.25). Although the reversal of the impulse down on 60min is bullish, the reaction from resistances was strong and direction is down until a support level will trigger. That will become the next important level to watch for clues if more downside is to come.