S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – January 17, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2765, 10DMA 2745,  20DMA 2715, 50DMA 2652, 100DMA 2584, 200DMA 2401

These are key Fib Levels: 2798, 2789 

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2595(intermediate minor) 2577 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, Janurary 17, 2018

Today's data is abundant with MBA Morgage Applications at 7:00AMEST, Fed's Redbook at 8:55AMEST, Industrial Production at 9:15AMEST, Housing Market Index at 10:00AMEST, and the Fed's Beige Book at 2:00PMEST.  After overthrowing broadening resistance sellers stepped in and managed to completely reverse the gap on the day and pull the market back to near the 5DEMA.  So long as sellers can defend the 2798 level they have the potential to build a larger decline, but while the decline was dramatic, there is no technical indications of a reversal at present especially since momentum buyers were eager to buy up the 5DEMA.  Sellers next target would be to test the area between 2760 and 2750 and close for the session below the 5DEMA upon a break of yesterday's lows.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – January 11, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: n/a

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2742, 10DMA 2716,  20DMA 2696, 50DMA 2640, 100DMA 2574, 200DMA 2495

These are key Fib Levels:  2756, 2741, 2736

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2595(intermediate minor) 2577 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, January 10,  2017

Today's data consists of Jobless Claims and Producer Price Index at 8:30AMEST, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index at 9:45AMEST, EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30AMEST, and the Treasury Budget at 2:00PMEST.  The technical picture has us up against declining resistance after cleanly bouncing off the 5DEMA as momentum players stepped back into the fray.  Given the current overnight price action we are currently marginally above the declining support but it is premature to read into that too much because price can do a lot of things between now and the opening bell.  Until a close below the 5DEMA buyers still have a firm grasp on overall market direction, and a break of the declining resistance would give more validity to that fact remaining valid.  The 2725 to 2530 zone will still be a solid area of defense for buyers should the sellers be able to push price down even further.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – January 9, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: n/a

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2724, 10DMA 2703,  20DMA 2686, 50DMA 2633, 100DMA 2568, 200DMA 2491

These are key Fib Levels:  2765

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2595(intermediate minor) 2577 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, January 9,  2017

The data flow today is again light with only the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index at 6:00AMEST, the Fed's Redbook at 8:55AMEST, nd the JOLTS Report at 10:00AMEST.  Very little has changed from yesterday's update as price continued to push up against the all time highs in a small broadening formation and continues to levitate above the broken broadening resistance now potentially support.  The first major challenge area on any pullback is going to be in the 2725 to 2730 zone with the most substantial consolidation area of this run and an accompanying gap out of it.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – January 8, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 2765

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2709, 10DMA 2696,  20DMA 2681, 50DMA 2629, 100DMA 2565, 200DMA 2489

These are key Fib Levels:  2732

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2595(intermediate minor) 2577 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, January 8,  2017

Data is virtually nonexistent today with only the TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index release at 12:30PMEST.  Friday's price action extended us out over broadening resistance and well above the 5DEMA which should lead to some consolidation in the near term.  Seeing what kind of reaction takes place on a retest of the now potential rising support will be important.  A failure from this level hints that a run back at the lower bound is highly probable and a quality fifty point swing at this stage back to the 2690's.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – December 29, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 10:00AMEST, 3:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2682, 10DMA 2677,  20DMA 2659, 50DMA 2612, 100DMA 2550, 200DMA 2479

These are key Fib Levels:  2699, 2673, 2662

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2595(intermediate minor) 2577 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, December 29,  2017

With what appears to be the red MSP tracking overall we should see an open at or near the overnight highs with weakness to follow, but ultimately recovering by end of day.  The only data for today consists of the Baker Hughes Rig count at 1:00PMEST.

MSP

The technical picture is going to have us gapping up over declining resistance in a now completed compression pattern.  Typically price produces a quick thrust out of the pattern which can reverse quite dramatically.  It will be important to mind the backtest of this level for basing.  Good luck today and have a great new year.

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 1st week of December

The market pushed ever upward last week making a new ATH at 2657. Then it experienced an interesting “flash crash” event on Friday, apparently on some “fake news”, which saw a 45 point drop in less than 1h. After that, it recovered strongly retracing more than 80% of the drop by the close, which shows that buyers are still willing to buy dips.
No change in the weekly cycles, as the up impulses on both indexes are pushing ever higher.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles show nicely Friday’s “oops” moment. On ES the drop brought the index very close to the mcm-MA, which provided support yet again. The decline on Thursday brought us closer to a test of the mcm-MA on ES and a direct test on YM. These held as market quickly recovered.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – November 28, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 10:30AMEST, 1:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2596, 10DMA 2587,  20DMA 2585, 50DMA 2557, 100DMA 2509, 200DMA 2448

These are key Fib Levels: 2549, 2557, 2592, 2607

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2595(intermediate minor) 2577 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, November 28,  2017

The overnight session, much like last nights, looks set to open higher and is taking on the characteristics of the red MSP which while a bit choppy through the early session looks to add onto the strength that started in the overnight as the session progresses.  Data is abundant today with International Trade in Goods at 8:30AMEST, Feds Redbook at 8:55AMEST,  FHFA House Price Index and Case Schiller Home Price Index at 9:00AMEST, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Manufacturing, and State Street Investor Confidence all coming in at 10:00AMEST,  and lastly the Gallup US Economic Confidence Index at 2:00PMEST.

MSP

Again we challenged the rising support into the close and looks set to gap higher again this morning.  Until we trade through this level on a sustained basis then buyers still have a firm grasp on the market.  Once this level breaks we can look for the intermediate minor level at 2595 as a clear downside minimum target.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – November 21, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 11:30AMEST, 2:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2578, 10DMA 2582,  20DMA 2579, 50DMA 2549, 100DMA 2502, 200DMA 2442

These are key Fib Levels: 2549, 2557, 2592, 2607

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2597(intermediate minor) 2579 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, November 21, 2017

With only the cyan MSP marking a low at timing through the overnight there is potential a good potential for a reversal around mid day timing and weakness all the way through the afternoon session.  Economic data today consists of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 8:30AMEST, the Feds Redbook at 8:55AMEST, and Existing Home Sales at 10:00AMEST.

MSP

Yesterday we found rising support at the close and sustained trade on a retest of the moving averages which has let to the overnight follow through which looks set to open well over the declining resistance level.  Price action over this area will be important because a failure to maintain above the resistance has a good probability of retracing the entire rally and head towards the 50DMA.  The key word is 'failure' though.  Sustained trade above resistance should be considered basing for a new rally leg.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 13-17th of November

The market made new ATHs last week, which is becoming something rather ordinary. However, it ended lower on a weekly basis, after retreating 30 points from the ATH to Thursday’s low. It seems Thursdays are the most bearish inclined days in November, 2 weeks ago the Thursday saw a similar move. Both those moves were however recovered quickly, most of it even on a daily basis. No apparent change on our EWT scenario which is a terminal pattern currently unwinding 4-5 waves. Market is moving slowly higher with some “hiccups” along the way, but whether we turn after a spike higher or market just falls on its own weight after marginal new highs is hard to say.
No change in the weekly cycles. Directionality is heading up again and getting close to the maximum value.

Weekly Cycles

Same story on the daily cycles. The decline on Thursday brought us closer to a test of the mcm-MA on ES and a direct test on YM. These held as market quickly recovered.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for first Week of November

The market moved mostly sideways last week, with a slight upward tilt. But even so, it managed to make a new ATH on Wednesday and finished the week very close to that. This is consistent with out assumption that these are sequences of 4-5 waves, from an EWT perspective, which would mean that it is a terminal pattern. No sign of a top just yet, but any impulsive decline should be viewed as a possible start of a bigger correction, so we reiterate our recommendation that bulls should avoid becoming complacent here.
No change in the weekly cycles. Up impulses continue to extend with no unwind in sight.

Weekly Cycles

Same story on the daily cycles. Up impulses are ongoing and no unwinds just yet, however we do have directionality coming close to the minimum level. That is not bullish, unless the price action manages to push this back up.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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